The Gaels are heavy road favorites, but is laying nearly double digits too much in a conference environment? Check out our expert prediction for Saint Mary’s vs. LMU as we analyze the rebounding battle.
The Setup: Saint Mary’s at Loyola Marymount
Saint Mary’s is laying 8.5 on the road at Loyola Marymount, and I can already hear the skepticism: Really? Nearly nine points for a road team in a conference game? Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, this isn’t your typical WCC matchup between evenly-matched conference foes. The Gaels come in at 9-1 with an adjusted net efficiency rating of 19.8 (#19 nationally), while LMU sits at 1.8 (#154). That’s an 18-point gap in adjusted efficiency, which translates to real basketball outcomes. Saint Mary’s is a legitimate top-25 caliber team playing one of the slower tempos in college basketball, and that pace control is exactly what makes this spread manageable even on the road.
The Gaels have built their season on suffocating defense – they rank 23rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.3 – and elite shooting when they do get quality looks. LMU has been solid defensively themselves (52nd in adjusted defense at 101.3), but their offensive limitations are glaring. Let me walk you through why this number isn’t just fair – it might actually be a touch low.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Saint Mary’s (9-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-3)
Date: December 28, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Gersten Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
Spread: Saint Mary’s -8.5
Total: 138.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is massive, and it shows up in every meaningful metric from collegebasketballdata.com. Saint Mary’s ranks 40th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.1, while LMU checks in at 261st with a 103.2 mark. That’s a 13.9-point difference in offensive efficiency. On the defensive side, the Gaels hold a 4.0-point advantage (97.3 vs 101.3). Do that math over 65 possessions – splitting the difference between Saint Mary’s glacial 53.9 pace (#365) and LMU’s more moderate 68.7 tempo (#170) – and you’re looking at a double-digit gap before you even factor in venue.
Here’s what those numbers actually mean: Saint Mary’s scores 117.1 points per 100 possessions against average competition, while LMU scores just 103.2. The Gaels allow 97.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Lions give up 101.3. When an elite offensive team meets a below-average offense, and both teams play solid defense, the team that can actually score efficiently wins – and wins big.
The raw scoring numbers back this up. Saint Mary’s averages 81.0 points per game (#118) while holding opponents to just 63.5 (#15 nationally in opponent scoring). That’s not just good defense – it’s elite defense combined with the tempo control that allows them to dictate terms. LMU scores 79.7 per game (#142) but allows 67.9 (#74), which sounds respectable until you realize they’re playing at a much faster pace. Their offensive rating of 111.5 (#174) versus Saint Mary’s 150.3 (#3) tells you everything about efficiency versus volume.
Saint Mary’s Situation
The Gaels do two things at an elite level: they shoot the three-ball, and they defend. Their 39.7% from three-point range ranks 18th nationally, and their 79.6% free throw shooting (#7) means they don’t leave points at the line. That’s not just volume shooting – it’s why Saint Mary’s can grind out wins even when possessions are limited. With an effective field goal percentage of 54.9% (#87), they’re getting quality looks and converting them.
Paulius Murauskas leads the way at 18.0 points per game (#90 nationally), while Mikey Lewis adds 16.8 (#152). But the real key is Andrew McKeever in the middle – 9.6 points and 10.7 rebounds per game (#12 in rebounding nationally). That’s a legitimate rim protector who controls the glass, which is critical against a LMU team that struggles on the offensive boards (28.3% offensive rebounding rate, #285).
The concern? Saint Mary’s ranks 232nd in offensive rebounding percentage at 29.9%, and their turnover ratio of 0.2 (#343) suggests they can be loose with the ball. They’re also coming off a mixed bag in their last five, including that ugly 96-71 loss at Vanderbilt. But look closer: they’ve won three of five, and the losses came against Vanderbilt (a power conference team) and by one point at Boise State. The Northern Iowa game (63-58 win) shows they can win ugly when the pace slows down.
Loyola Marymount’s Situation
LMU’s 7-3 record looks solid on paper, but the recent form is concerning. They’ve lost three of their last five, including a 21-point drubbing by Saint Louis (91-70) and a home loss to UC San Diego (67-57). Those aren’t close losses – they’re games where the offensive limitations got exposed.
Jan Vide runs the show at point guard with 15.2 points and 6.0 assists per game (#24 nationally in assists), and Myron Amey Jr. adds 14.9 points. But here’s the problem: LMU shoots just 36.0% from three (#94) and a woeful 67.4% from the free throw line (#285). That free throw shooting is a killer in close games, and against Saint Mary’s defense, every possession matters.
The Lions do defend reasonably well – 101.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (#52) is solid – and they force turnovers (7.2 steals per game, #188). But their offensive rating of 111.5 (#174) means they struggle to score efficiently against quality opponents. When you’re shooting 47.5% from the field (#93) and can’t hit free throws, you need volume to score. Saint Mary’s won’t give them that volume.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on pace and three-point shooting. Saint Mary’s wants to slow this game to a crawl – their 53.9 possessions per game ranks 365th nationally, which is essentially dead last. LMU prefers a more moderate 68.7 pace. The team that controls tempo controls the game, and the Gaels are masters at dictating pace.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Saint Mary’s shoots 39.7% from three while LMU allows 30.0% (#78). Meanwhile, LMU shoots 36.0% from deep against a Saint Mary’s defense that holds opponents to 28.4% (#38 nationally). That’s a massive edge in the most important shot in basketball. Over 20 three-point attempts, that’s a 6-7 point swing right there.
The free throw disparity is equally critical. Saint Mary’s shoots 79.6% (#7) while LMU hits just 67.4% (#285). In a grind-it-out game with 60-65 possessions, those 4-5 extra points from the charity stripe add up fast.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. An 18-point gap in adjusted net efficiency (#19 vs #154) is enormous. The historical head-to-head supports this too – Saint Mary’s has won four straight in this series, including an 81-56 beatdown at home last January and a 58-55 road win last February.
My Play
The Pick: Saint Mary’s -8.5 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with the Gaels on the road. The efficiency gap is too massive, the shooting edge is too pronounced, and the pace control favors the better team. Saint Mary’s should win this by 12-15 points if they execute their game plan. I’m projecting something like Saint Mary’s 72, Loyola Marymount 59.
The main risk here is if LMU gets hot from three early and speeds up the game, or if Saint Mary’s has a hangover from their recent schedule. Road conference games can be tricky, and Gersten Pavilion is a tough venue. But I’ve considered all of that, and the talent gap is still too massive to ignore. The Gaels are simply better at every phase of the game, and their ability to control tempo means they’ll never let this game get away from them.
Saint Mary’s has the defense, the shooting, and the experience to cover this number. Give me the better team getting the pace they want.
