The Saint Mary’s Gaels look to maintain their perfect conference record as they host a dangerous Seattle U squad in a classic West Coast Conference battle. With the Gaels ranking among the nation’s elite in defensive efficiency and rebounding, our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and why Saint Mary’s methodical pace makes them a compelling ATS pick for this Sunday night matchup.
The Setup: Seattle U at Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s is laying 10.5 points at home against Seattle U on Sunday night, and I’ll be honest – my first instinct was that this number felt light. Then I dug into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency data, and here’s the thing: this spread is actually telling us a very specific story about how these two teams match up. Saint Mary’s checks in at #19 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +19.8, while Seattle U sits at #110 with a +5.8 mark. That’s a 14-point gap in quality when you adjust for schedule strength, and we’re getting a spread right in that neighborhood.
But this isn’t just about the overall numbers. This game lives and dies on one critical factor: pace. Saint Mary’s plays at a glacial 53.9 possessions per game (#365 in the country), while Seattle U operates at 68.9 (#166). That 15-possession gap per game is massive, and it’s exactly why this spread sits where it does instead of being three or four points higher. Let me walk you through why the Gaels still cover despite the tempo mismatch.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Seattle U (7-2) @ Saint Mary’s (9-1)
Date: January 4, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Conference: WCC
Spread: Saint Mary’s -10.5
Total: 140.5
Moneyline: Saint Mary’s -440, Seattle U +340
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense when you break down the efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com: Saint Mary’s ranks #40 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.1, while Seattle U checks in at #154 with a 108.8 mark. That’s an 8.3-point gap per 100 possessions in favor of the Gaels. On defense, it gets even more lopsided – Saint Mary’s sits at #23 with a 97.3 defensive rating, compared to Seattle U’s #85 mark at 103.0.
Do that math over a game that’ll probably feature around 60 possessions given these tempo profiles, and you’re looking at a natural 8-9 point spread before you even factor in home court. Add three points for the Gaels playing in Moraga, and suddenly 10.5 isn’t just reasonable – it might actually be a touch short.
The efficiency gap shows up clearly in the raw defensive numbers too. Saint Mary’s holds opponents to 37.8% shooting (#17 nationally) and just 28.4% from three (#38). Seattle U’s defense is solid at #37 in defensive rating, but they’re facing an offensive machine that ranks #3 in the country in offensive rating at 150.3. That’s not a typo – third in the nation.
Seattle U’s Situation
The Redhawks come in at 7-2 with some genuinely impressive offensive metrics. They’re shooting 52.0% from the field (#15 nationally) and 39.4% from three (#21), which translates to a 59.0% effective field goal percentage that ranks #17 in the country. Brayden Maldonado leads the way at 17.7 points per game, and Will Heimbrodt adds 14.9 as a versatile forward.
But here’s where Seattle U runs into problems: they’re #324 in rebounds per game at just 32.6, and their offensive rebounding rate of 28.3% ranks #285 nationally. Against a Saint Mary’s team that pulls down 41.1 boards per game (#46), that’s a recipe for one-and-done possessions. When you’re already playing 15 fewer possessions than you’d like, you can’t afford to give away extra chances.
The recent form is concerning too. They just lost to Gonzaga 72-80 and dropped a game to San Francisco 59-67. Those are the two best teams they’ve faced recently, and both games exposed the same issue: when Seattle U faces elite competition, their #154 adjusted offensive efficiency becomes a liability.
Saint Mary’s Situation
The Gaels are 9-1 and rolling through opponents with surgical precision. That #3 ranking in offensive rating isn’t just impressive – it’s elite company. They’re shooting 39.7% from three (#18) with an outstanding 79.6% free throw mark (#7), which means they execute in the halfcourt and finish possessions.
Paulius Murauskas paces the offense at 18.0 points per game, but the real story is the balance. Mikey Lewis adds 16.8, Joshua Dent contributes 12.3 with 4.8 assists (#92 nationally), and Andrew McKeever controls the glass with 10.7 rebounds per game (#12 in the country). That rebounding advantage is massive – McKeever alone nearly matches Seattle U’s entire offensive rebounding output.
Saint Mary’s has won five straight, and they’ve been dominant doing it. They beat Portland by 21, Pepperdine by 27, and even handled a decent Florida Atlantic squad 88-75. The one loss came back on November 23rd, and since then it’s been nothing but business. Playing at home in Moraga, where they control tempo and dictate terms, they’re nearly unbeatable.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Saint Mary’s averages 41.1 rebounds per game while Seattle U sits at 32.6 – that’s an 8.5 board advantage. McKeever’s 10.7 rebounds per game gives the Gaels a presence in the paint that Seattle U simply cannot match. When you combine that with Saint Mary’s #232 offensive rebounding rate versus Seattle U’s #285 mark, you’re looking at a team that’s going to generate second-chance opportunities while limiting them on the other end.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Saint Mary’s defense against three-point shooting. They hold opponents to 28.4% from deep (#38 nationally), and that directly attacks Seattle U’s offensive identity. The Redhawks shoot 39.4% from three in general, but when you face a defense this disciplined on the perimeter, that number craters. Seattle U’s #17 effective field goal percentage is built on making threes – take that away, and their #154 adjusted offensive efficiency becomes even more problematic.
The pace factor works both ways here. Yes, Saint Mary’s prefers to play slow at 53.9 possessions per game. But that actually helps them cover because it limits the variance. In a 60-possession game, the better team wins far more often than in an 80-possession game. Seattle U needs chaos and transition buckets – Saint Mary’s is going to grind this into a halfcourt battle where their efficiency advantages compound possession after possession.
My Play
The Pick: Saint Mary’s -10.5 (2 units)
I’ve considered the pace concerns, the fact that 10.5 is a key number in college basketball, and Seattle U’s ability to shoot the three. I’ve looked at all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Saint Mary’s is 14 points better in adjusted net efficiency, they have a 19.8 rebound advantage, and they defend the three at an elite level against a team that needs to make threes to score.
The main risk here is if Seattle U gets hot from deep early and forces Saint Mary’s to play faster than they want. But even then, the Gaels have the horses to trade buckets – remember that #3 offensive rating. I’m projecting something like Saint Mary’s 78, Seattle U 65, which gives us comfortable cover room even if Seattle U hits some shots late.
This is a classic case of a superior team playing at home against a solid but overmatched opponent. The spread reflects the quality gap, and I’m laying the points with confidence. Saint Mary’s covers and probably wins by 14-16.
