Undefeated in ACC play, No. 6 Duke welcomes SMU to Cameron Indoor Stadium with a top-ranked adjusted net efficiency. Our expert analysis explores whether the Blue Devils’ elite rim protection can cover the point spread against the Mustangs’ dynamic backcourt.
The Setup: SMU at Duke
Duke’s laying 12.5 to 13 points at Cameron Indoor against SMU on Saturday afternoon, and I can already hear the skeptics: That’s a lot of points against a 9-1 team that just beat North Carolina. Look, I get it. SMU’s got some impressive wins, and Boopie Miller is a legitimate star averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 assists per game. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just Duke being Duke at home – this is a fundamental mismatch that the betting market has actually undervalued.
Here’s the thing – Duke ranks 3rd nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-33.0, while SMU checks in at 49th with a plus-13.6 mark. That’s a 19.4-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, which means we’re not just talking about Duke being better – we’re talking about Duke being exponentially better when you account for strength of schedule. Let me walk you through why this number should actually be higher.
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is staggering, and it shows up on both ends of the floor. Duke’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 123.7, ranking 8th nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com. That’s elite. But here’s where it gets really interesting – their adjusted defensive efficiency of 90.7 ranks 3rd in the country. SMU’s offensive efficiency of 114.2 ranks 71st, while their defensive mark of 100.6 sits at 46th. That’s not just a gap – that’s a chasm.
Do that math over 70 possessions at Cameron Indoor, and you’re looking at Duke scoring around 86-87 points while holding SMU to somewhere in the mid-60s. That’s a 20-point game right there before we even factor in home court advantage, which at Cameron is worth at least 3-4 additional points. The raw numbers back this up too – Duke’s allowing just 59.6 points per game, which ranks 4th nationally. They’re holding opponents to 34.1% shooting from the field, which is the best mark in college basketball.
SMU’s putting up 89.8 points per game, but here’s what matters: they’re doing it against defenses that rank 247th nationally in points allowed. That 76.0 opponent points per game tells you everything about the quality of competition they’ve faced. When they stepped up in class against Clemson and LSU, they lost both games. The North Carolina win looks impressive until you realize UNC’s defense has been inconsistent all season.
SMU’s Situation
The Mustangs have legitimate offensive weapons. Miller is the 6th-ranked assist man nationally and a dynamic scorer. Jaron Pierre Jr. adds another 19.5 points per game, giving them a legitimate two-headed backcourt attack. B.J. Edwards chips in 13.0 points and 5.6 assists, ranking 42nd nationally in dimes. That’s a lot of playmaking.
But here’s the problem – SMU’s offensive rating of 117.1 ranks just 103rd nationally, and their effective field goal percentage of 53.8% sits at 117th. They’re not an efficient offensive team despite all those points. They rank 217th in three-point shooting at 32.7%, which is going to be a massive problem against Duke’s perimeter defense that holds opponents to 26.7% from deep (15th nationally).
Defensively, SMU’s been getting exposed. That 99.3 defensive rating ranks 82nd, and while they defend the three-point line well (38th nationally at 28.4% opponent shooting), they’re 228th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 30.0%. Against Duke’s length and athleticism, second-chance opportunities will be scarce.
Duke’s Situation
Cameron Boozer is the real deal – 23.0 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, ranking 3rd nationally in scoring and 21st in rebounding. That’s a legitimate All-American putting up numbers at both ends. But what makes Duke special isn’t just Boozer – it’s the defensive infrastructure around him.
Patrick Ngongba II anchors the paint with 4.9 blocks per game (35th nationally as a team), and Duke’s 58.4% effective field goal percentage (25th) shows they’re not just defending – they’re converting efficiently on the other end. Their 125.4 offensive rating ranks 39th, but when you adjust for competition, that number jumps to 8th nationally at 123.7.
The Blue Devils play at a controlled pace – 69.2 possessions per game (157th) – which means they dictate tempo and don’t get into track meets. Against SMU’s 71.3 pace (95th), Duke will slow this game down and force the Mustangs to execute in the halfcourt. That’s where Duke’s 34.1% opponent field goal percentage becomes devastating.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on SMU’s ability to shoot from the perimeter, and the numbers say they’re cooked. SMU ranks 217th in three-point percentage while Duke ranks 15th in opponent three-point defense. When you can’t shoot from outside and you’re facing the nation’s best field goal defense overall, you’re looking at a lot of possessions ending in contested twos or turnovers.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: SMU’s 114.2 adjusted offensive efficiency against Duke’s 90.7 adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s a 23.5-point swing in Duke’s favor when you account for pace. SMU’s best offensive performance came against Cal State Fullerton (110 points) and Central Arkansas (99 points) – not exactly defensive juggernauts. Against Clemson’s decent defense, they scored 70. Against LSU, they managed 77.
I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Duke’s holding teams to 59.6 points per game at a pace that suggests 68-70 possessions. SMU’s averaging 89.8, but they haven’t seen anything close to this defensive intensity. The rebounding battle favors Duke (42.2 per game, 29th nationally) over SMU (40.6, 56th), and Duke’s 10.2 turnovers per game (45th) suggests they’ll take care of the ball while SMU’s pressure defense (8.8 steals, 60th) won’t generate the chaos they need.
My Play
Duke -12.5 for 2 units
I’ve considered SMU’s backcourt talent and their ability to score in bunches, but the efficiency gap is just too massive to ignore. Duke’s 3rd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency against SMU’s 71st-ranked adjusted offense is a 20-point mismatch before we even talk about Cameron Indoor Stadium. The main risk here is if Boopie Miller goes nuclear for 35-plus and SMU catches fire from three, but their 32.7% three-point shooting suggests that’s unlikely against the nation’s best perimeter defense.
I’m projecting Duke 87, SMU 68. That’s a 19-point margin, which gives us plenty of cushion on the 12.5-point spread. SMU’s two losses came against decent competition (Clemson and LSU), and Duke’s significantly better than both. This number should be closer to 15, and we’re getting value at 12.5.
Final Pick: Duke -12.5
