Can South Dakota State’s defense survive a date with the nation’s most efficient scoring attack? Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his top ATS pick for Monday’s clash in Tucson.
The Setup: South Dakota State at Arizona
Arizona’s laying 32.5 points at McKale Memorial Center against South Dakota State, and I can already hear some of you choking on your coffee. That’s a massive number in any sport, let alone college basketball where variance runs wild and bench depth can turn a blowout into a sweat-fest in the final five minutes.
Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t some random cupcake line that the books threw out there hoping to trap you. The Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender sitting at 8-0, while the Jackrabbits have stumbled to 5-5 and frankly look overmatched against any high-major competition. Arizona’s adjusted net efficiency of 25.9 ranks 6th nationally, while South Dakota State sits at a pedestrian 1.3 (158th). That’s not a gap – that’s a canyon.
But can Arizona actually cover 32.5 at home? Let me walk you through why this number exists and whether there’s any value on either side of this monster spread.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: South Dakota State at Arizona
Date: December 29, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ
Spread: Arizona -32.5
Total: 159.5/160
Moneyline: N/A
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about why this line opened where it did. Arizona’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 119.8 (23rd nationally) while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks an elite 5th at 93.9. South Dakota State? They’re checking in at 105.1 on offense (227th) and 103.8 on defense (99th).
Do that math over 72 possessions – Arizona’s preferred pace – and you’re looking at a projected margin right around 30 points based purely on efficiency. The Wildcats score 119.8 points per 100 possessions while holding opponents to just 93.9. South Dakota State scores 105.1 per 100 and allows 103.8. That’s not just a mismatch – it’s why Arizona has been demolishing quality opponents all season long.
Look at Arizona’s recent form: they just beat Auburn 97-68, handled Alabama on the road 96-75, and dismantled San Diego State 68-45. That San Diego State game is particularly telling because the Aztecs play the exact same grind-it-out style that South Dakota State employs, and Arizona absolutely suffocated them. The Wildcats held SDSU to 45 points – that’s the kind of defensive dominance that makes 32.5 feel achievable.
Here’s what jumps off the page from collegebasketballdata.com: Arizona ranks 3rd nationally in field goal percentage at 53.0% and 29th in effective field goal percentage at 57.9%. Meanwhile, South Dakota State’s offensive rating of 105.3 ranks 288th in the country. The Jackrabbits simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace.
South Dakota State’s Situation
The Jackrabbits have one thing going for them: defense. Their defensive rating of 96.4 ranks 45th nationally, and they hold opponents to just 41.3% shooting (96th). That’s legitimately good, and it’s kept them competitive in most games despite mediocre offensive production.
But here’s the problem – their recent schedule has exposed serious limitations. They just lost to Milwaukee 88-87, got hammered by Wyoming 87-72, and needed overtime to survive Idaho before losing 84-81. Those aren’t exactly murderer’s row opponents, and they’re the kinds of teams that Arizona would beat by 40-50 points.
Jaden Jackson leads the team at 12.6 points per game, but nobody on this roster can create their own shot consistently against elite defenders. Their 31.1% three-point shooting (271st) is genuinely terrible, and their assists per game rank 258th. That’s a recipe for offensive stagnation against a defense like Arizona’s.
The real killer? South Dakota State ranks 351st in blocks per game at just 1.6. That’s dead last in Division I. Against a team like Arizona that attacks the rim relentlessly, that interior defensive weakness becomes fatal.
Arizona’s Situation
The Wildcats are rolling, and their balanced attack makes them nearly impossible to game-plan against. Five different players average double figures, led by Koa Peat at 15.9 points per game. But it’s the team numbers that tell the real story.
Arizona ranks 13th nationally with 19.4 assists per game – that’s elite ball movement that creates open looks all night long. They’re shooting 53.0% from the field (3rd) and 37.2% from three (55th). That combination of efficiency inside and competence from deep is what separates good teams from great ones.
Defensively, they’re suffocating. That 93.9 adjusted defensive efficiency (5th) isn’t a fluke – they hold opponents to 39.5% shooting (46th) and block 4.4 shots per game (74th). Motiejus Krivas anchors the interior with 7.9 rebounds per game, and the team’s length disrupts everything.
At McKale Memorial Center, Arizona has been absolutely dominant. The crowd energy in Tucson is real, and this is a team that’s been blowing out everyone regardless of location. That 96-75 win at Alabama? That’s a tournament-quality road victory that shows this team can impose its will anywhere.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Arizona’s ability to turn South Dakota State’s offensive possessions into transition opportunities. The Wildcats average 134 fast break points compared to just 91 for the Jackrabbits. With Arizona’s 8.2 steals per game against South Dakota State’s mediocre ball security, we’re looking at 12-15 transition opportunities for the home team.
The three-point shooting gap is massive. Arizona hits 37.2% while South Dakota State manages just 31.1% and ranks 271st nationally. Over 30 combined three-point attempts, that’s a 6-point swing right there – and that’s being conservative.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Arizona’s interior dominance against South Dakota State’s inability to protect the rim. The Wildcats have scored 386 points in the paint through eight games while the Jackrabbits rank dead last in blocks. Arizona’s going to get layup after layup, and there’s nothing South Dakota State can do to stop it.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 24.6-point gap in adjusted net efficiency historically translates to spreads in the 28-35 point range, and we’re right in that sweet spot at 32.5.
My Play
Arizona -32.5 for 2 units
Look, I’ve considered the typical concerns with massive spreads – garbage time, bench rotations, the tendency for favorites to coast. I’ve considered all of that, and the talent gap is still too massive to ignore. Arizona is 6th in adjusted net efficiency playing at home against a team ranked 158th that can’t shoot, can’t protect the rim, and has lost three of its last five games.
The main risk here is if Arizona builds a 35-point lead with eight minutes left and completely empties the bench. But this coaching staff has been aggressive all season, and that 68-45 beatdown of San Diego State showed they’re willing to step on throats even in blowouts.
I’m projecting Arizona 93, South Dakota State 58. The Wildcats control tempo, force turnovers, and turn this into a track meet that the Jackrabbits simply can’t run. By the under-12 timeout in the second half, this game is over. The only question is whether Arizona’s starters play long enough to push it past 33.
Lay the points. This is what elite teams do to overmatched opponents at home.
