The line opened at 3.5 and has seen movement toward the Salukis, signaling sharp interest in the road favorite. Handicapper Bash evaluates the point spread and tempo factors to deliver a winning prediction for Sunday afternoon.
The Setup: Southern Illinois at Evansville
Southern Illinois is laying between 3.5 and 4.5 points on the road at Evansville, and if you’re looking at the records and thinking this feels about right, you’re missing the entire picture. The Salukis are 5-4, Evansville sits at 4-6, and the spread suggests a tight Missouri Valley Conference battle. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line is actually giving you a gift—the question is which side you’re smart enough to take.
Southern Illinois owns an adjusted net efficiency of 2.6, ranking 140th nationally. Evansville? They’re at -11.3, sitting 301st. That’s a 14-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and the market is asking you to lay less than a bucket on the road. The Salukis have lost four straight, sure, but three of those losses came by five points or fewer. Evansville just got boat-raced 49-76 at UIC and scored 48 points against Northern Iowa. These teams are not remotely close in quality.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Southern Illinois at Evansville
Date: January 25, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Ford Center, Evansville, IN
DraftKings:
Spread: Southern Illinois -3.5
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: SIU -162, Evansville +136
Bovada:
Spread: Southern Illinois -4.5
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: SIU -195, Evansville +165
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market is clearly factoring in Southern Illinois’ four-game losing streak and road environment, but it’s not properly weighing the massive efficiency gap. The Salukis rank 133rd in adjusted offensive efficiency at 110.0 and 167th defensively at 107.5. Evansville checks in at 318th offensively (99.9) and 250th defensively (111.2). That’s a 10-point offensive advantage and a nearly 4-point defensive edge for Southern Illinois in adjusted metrics.
The total sitting at 142.5 makes sense given the pace. Southern Illinois plays at 69.3 possessions per game (155th nationally), while Evansville crawls at 68.3 (191st). Neither team wants to run, which should keep this game in the 140-145 range if it plays to efficiency. But here’s what the market might be missing: Evansville’s offensive rating of 102.3 ranks 322nd nationally. They’ve scored 49 and 48 points in two of their last five games. The Purple Aces aren’t just bad offensively—they’re actively struggling to function.
The line opened at 3.5 and moved to 4.5 at some books, which tells you sharp action came in on the Salukis. That makes sense. A 14-point adjusted efficiency gap should produce a larger spread, especially when the favorite ranks in the top half of the country in opponent field goal percentage at 41.2% (91st) while Evansville allows 42.9% (157th).
Southern Illinois Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Salukis’ four-game slide looks ugly on paper, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. They’re shooting 49.0% from the field (54th nationally) with an effective field goal percentage of 53.0% (139th). The three-point shooting is abysmal at 27.3% (352nd), but they’re compensating by getting quality looks inside and converting at an elite rate.
Quel’Ron House leads the way at 14.4 points per game, but the balance is what makes this offense dangerous. Five players average between 8.4 and 14.4 points, and they’re moving the ball effectively with 15.3 assists per game (136th). More importantly, they’re taking care of the basketball with just 11.8 turnovers per game (143rd) and a turnover ratio that ranks 66th nationally.
Defensively, Southern Illinois forces opponents into 41.2% shooting and ranks 115th in defensive rating at 101.7. They’re not elite, but they’re competent. Against an Evansville offense that ranks 318th in adjusted efficiency, competent defense should be more than enough.
Evansville Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Evansville’s offensive struggles are alarming. They’re shooting 42.9% from the field (291st) and 30.1% from three (306th). The effective field goal percentage of 49.2% ranks 290th, and their true shooting percentage sits at 53.5% (276th). Connor Turnbull leads the team at 13.8 points per game, but after him, it’s a collection of 7-9 point scorers who can’t create consistent offense.
The rebounding numbers are equally concerning. Evansville pulls down just 33.5 boards per game (299th nationally), which means second-chance opportunities will be scarce. Their offensive rebound percentage of 30.7% ranks 195th, which is actually better than Southern Illinois’ 29.6% (239th), but the overall volume deficit is significant.
Defensively, they’re allowing 42.9% shooting (157th) and 35.0% from three (283rd). The defensive rating of 105.3 ranks 173rd, which isn’t terrible, but it’s not good enough to compensate for an offense that can’t crack 100 in adjusted efficiency. When you score 49 and 48 points in two of your last five games, you need elite defense to compete. Evansville doesn’t have it.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Evansville can somehow generate enough offense to stay within a possession. History suggests they can’t. The head-to-head series shows Southern Illinois winning 68-59 and 65-53 in the last two meetings at Evansville. The Salukis know how to win at Ford Center, and the efficiency gap suggests they should win comfortably.
Southern Illinois’ ability to shoot 49.0% from the field should overwhelm an Evansville defense that allows 42.9%. The Salukis rank 71st in rebounds per game at 39.8 compared to Evansville’s 299th ranking at 33.5, which means second-chance points will tilt heavily toward the visitors. Rolyns Aligbe pulls down 6.2 boards per game (277th nationally among all players), and AJ Casey leads Evansville at 6.0 (315th). That’s not a significant individual advantage, but the team rebounding gap is massive.
The pace will favor both teams staying in their comfort zone—slow, methodical, and halfcourt-oriented. But in a rock fight, you want the team that can actually score. Southern Illinois averages 80.0 points per game (137th) compared to Evansville’s 70.1 (311th). That 10-point gap in scoring output mirrors the efficiency numbers perfectly.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Southern Illinois, and I’m not overthinking it. Take Southern Illinois -4.5 if you can still find it, and I’d go as high as -5. The four-game losing streak is noise—three of those losses were by five points or fewer against quality competition. The adjusted efficiency gap of 14 points is real, and Evansville’s offensive ineptitude makes them nearly impossible to back.
The Salukis shoot better, rebound better, and defend better. They’ve won the last two meetings at Ford Center by nine and 12 points, and nothing in Evansville’s recent form suggests they’ve closed that gap. When a team scores 49 and 48 points in two of their last five games, you fade them at home against a competent opponent. This isn’t complicated.
Southern Illinois covers, and it’s not close. Lock it in.
