RBD breaks down Stanford vs West Virginia betting angles using his models, highlighting trends and handicapping signals for this matchup.
Stanford vs West Virginia
Pick and Analysis
Today the Cardinal and Mountaineer (if Stanford’s not going to use the standard plural form for the team’s nickname I’m not using it for their opponent either) meet in the quarter-final game of something called the College Basketball Crown.
The game is being played right here in Las Vegas so I momentarily toyed with the idea of attending in person. But then I realized I’d probably get 86’d from the arena for yelling curses at The Kids when they do their usual stupid stuff.
I can’t stand watching the game on TV so I can only imagine the pain would be multiplied in person, and thus the quantity and volume of my swear words would multiply also.
But I digress.
Let’s hit the numbers.
Model Breakdown
Stanford/W Virginia qualifies for a T1 Over.
T1 Overs are 15-24.
That’s a 61% Fade.
Stanford/W Virginia also qualifies for a T2 Over.
T2 Overs are 22-25.
That’s a 53% Fade.
My cut off for play is 58%.
Anything that’s 58% or higher is worth putting my money down on.
I got that 58% or higher with T1 at 61%.
T2 falls short at 53%.
BUT – when I have a match, when a game qualifies for both systems, the record is 1-9.
In other words, FADE IT!
Postseason & Season Stats
In tournament play, Stanford is 0-1 Ov/Un.
Their only postseason game landed on 127.
That’s approximately 10 points fewer than the current total on tonight’s game.
West Virginia is also 0-1 Ov/Un.
Their only postseason game landed on 116.
That’s approximately 21 points fewer than that total on tonight’s game.
On the season, Stanford was 14-18 Ov/Un.
West Virginia was 10-22.
All the standard stats point to an Under tonight.
Market Movement
The game opened at 134 and has already been bet up to 136′. Though the line is moving in my favor I’m buying this one now.
Based on the standard stats noted above I don’t see it getting any higher, I see a better chance of it coming back down.
Pick
My play:
Stan/WV Un 136′
Recap & Record
Recap: 2-0
Record: 12-15
Review:
I entered the postseason with a very workable 9-9.
I tanked on my first six plays and went from even to minus six units at 9-15.
I’ve hit three in a row now and battled back to 12-15.
With a very limited number of games left on the schedule I probably can’t get back to plus money, but I’ll try and reduce the deficit by at least one or two more units if my models kick out a few plays I can use.
Reminder
In case you missed my Monday article (and I wouldn’t blame you if you did, it’s on the UFL) here’s a reminder – I gave out a play on Birmingham with an Early Buy Notice.
The number was at -7 and as I said it’s sure to go up.
You can still get it at -7 but some houses have already moved to 7′.
The only reason every book hasn’t moved to -7′ and higher is because the game’s not until Sunday and no one follows it closely because, well, because it’s the UFL.
But if you’re going to watch the game get it today while you can still get -7 because by game day it will be -8 or higher.
Final Note
And in case anyone is wondering when I’ll start giving out my baseball picks you can stop wondering.
I don’t handicap the sport.
In younger days it was the sport I loved the most, lived for it, checked the box scores every day whether I had a bet on it or not.
But little by little over the years they lost me as a fan and as a bettor.
It bores me. To death.
And the final straw that broke the camel’s back was when they came up with the Magical Runner who appears on second base in extra innings – before the inning even starts!
