McNeese is laying 10.5 points against a 7-2 Lumberjacks team riding a five-game win streak, but are the oddsmakers still underestimating the Cowboys? Bryan Bash offers a sharp pick on whether SFA is walking into a blowout.
The Setup: Stephen F. Austin at McNeese
McNeese is laying 10.5 points (Everygame line) at home against Stephen F. Austin in a Southland Conference clash, and if you’re thinking that’s a hefty number for a conference game between two 7-2 teams, I get it. But here’s the thing – these teams aren’t remotely close when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers. McNeese checks in at 52nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-13.1, while SFA sits at 108th with a plus-6.4 mark. That’s not a small gap – that’s a chasm that screams home blowout potential.
The Cowboys are absolutely rolling at home in Lake Charles, and they bring a style that’s going to give the Lumberjacks fits. We’re talking about a McNeese squad that ranks 5th nationally in offensive rating at 147.8 and backs it with the 3rd-ranked steal rate in the country at 11.4 per game. Stephen F. Austin has been solid defensively, but they haven’t seen this kind of offensive firepower in conference play. Let me walk you through why this double-digit spread isn’t just justified – it might be light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Stephen F. Austin (7-2) @ McNeese (7-2)
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Legacy Center, Lake Charles, LA
Spread: McNeese -10.5
Total: 143.5
Conference: Southland
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense when you break down the efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com: McNeese’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 113.6 (82nd nationally), while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 44th at 100.5. Stephen F. Austin? They’re at 111.0 offensively (117th) and 104.7 defensively (111th). That four-point defensive efficiency gap is massive in college basketball.
But the real story lives in the raw numbers. McNeese is scoring 90.0 points per game – 19th in the nation – while holding opponents to just 65.4 (37th in scoring defense). SFA scores 80.1 (132nd) and allows 68.7 (87th). Do that math over a typical possession count, and you’re looking at a natural 12-15 point separation before we even factor in home court.
The pace differential is worth noting too. McNeese operates at a glacial 60.8 possessions per game (341st nationally), while SFA pushes it slightly faster at 69.4 (152nd). The Cowboys control tempo, and when they slow you down to their pace while generating points off chaos – remember those 11.4 steals per game – you’re in for a long night. McNeese’s offensive rating of 147.8 in a slow-paced game means they’re ruthlessly efficient with every possession.
Stephen F. Austin’s Situation
The Lumberjacks come in riding a five-game winning streak, but let’s be real about the competition level. Their last five wins came against SE Louisiana, Northwestern State, East Texas A&M, Dallas, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi – not exactly murderer’s row. They’ve been winning with defense and ball security, ranking 19th nationally in turnovers per game at just 9.6 and 17th in turnover ratio.
Keon Thompson leads the way at 18.3 points per game (81st nationally), and he’s their most complete player with 6.3 boards and 4.4 assists. Lateef Patrick adds 15.1 points as the secondary scorer. Here’s their strength: they defend the three-point line exceptionally well, holding opponents to just 29.3% (54th nationally). They also block shots at an elite level, ranking 36th with 4.9 per game.
But here’s the problem – their free throw shooting is an absolute disaster at 62.8% (352nd nationally). That’s not just bad, it’s catastrophic when you’re playing from behind and need to convert at the line. Their true shooting percentage of 55.0% ranks just 216th, meaning they’re not particularly efficient scorers despite decent three-point shooting at 37.1%.
McNeese’s Situation
The Cowboys are a completely different animal at home. They shoot 51.4% from the field (20th nationally) and convert free throws at a ridiculous 79.0% clip (10th). That’s elite finishing, and when you combine it with an offensive rebounding rate that ranks 18th nationally at 36.8%, they’re getting multiple cracks at every possession.
Larry Johnson paces five double-digit scorers at 16.4 points per game, but the depth is what kills you. Javohn Garcia (13.0), Tyshawn Archie (12.8), and Garwey Dual (10.1) all contribute, with Dual adding 4.3 assists per game (125th nationally). This balanced attack makes them nearly impossible to scheme against.
I keep coming back to those steal numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. McNeese ranks 3rd nationally at 11.4 steals per game, and they’ve turned that defensive pressure into 237 points off turnovers already this season. They score 205 fast break points despite playing at a slow pace – that’s elite transition efficiency. The 13th-ranked opponent field goal percentage at 37.3% shows they’re getting stops consistently.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on McNeese’s ability to turn Stephen F. Austin over and convert in transition. SFA ranks 19th in taking care of the ball, but they haven’t faced pressure like this in conference play. When McNeese forces turnovers with those 11.4 steals per game against a team averaging just 9.6 turnovers, something’s got to give.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: McNeese’s offensive rebounding (36.8%, 18th nationally) against SFA’s defensive rebounding. The Lumberjacks grab 38.4 boards per game but have an offensive rebounding rate of just 33.2% (108th). McNeese is going to get second and third chances all night long, and with their 79.0% free throw shooting, they’ll convert those opportunities.
The three-point battle favors SFA on paper – they shoot 37.1% (57th) and defend it at 29.3% (54th). But McNeese doesn’t rely on the three, shooting just 32.8% (213th). They score 426 points in the paint already this season compared to SFA’s 310. The Cowboys are going to pound the ball inside, get to the line, and make their free throws. That’s a 15-point swing right there when you factor in SFA’s 62.8% free throw percentage.
The historical context matters too. Last season, McNeese beat SFA twice – 79-59 and 95-64. That second game was a 31-point demolition. Different rosters, sure, but the program strength differential is real.
My Play
The Pick: McNeese -10.5 (3 units)
I’m laying the points with the Cowboys at home. The efficiency gap is too massive, the stylistic matchup favors McNeese in every critical area, and SFA hasn’t seen this level of competition in their recent winning streak. McNeese’s ability to force turnovers, crash the offensive glass, and convert free throws creates multiple paths to a comfortable double-digit victory.
The main risk here is if SFA gets nuclear from three-point range and McNeese goes cold from the field. But I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive pressure McNeese brings is still too massive to ignore. They’re going to disrupt SFA’s rhythm, control the glass, and slowly pull away in the second half.
Score Prediction: McNeese 82, Stephen F. Austin 68
The Cowboys cover comfortably at home, and we cash a winner in Lake Charles. This is exactly the kind of conference game where the better team flexes its muscles and reminds everyone who runs the Southland.
