The Tennessee Volunteers look to extend their momentum against a high-octane Georgia Bulldogs team at Stegeman Coliseum. In our latest CBB Picks, we evaluate the 8-point gap in adjusted net efficiency and how Georgia’s top-ranked pace will challenge the Vols’ half-court discipline.
The Setup: Tennessee at Georgia
Georgia’s laying 2.5 at home against Tennessee, and if you’re scratching your head at this tiny number, you’re not alone. The Bulldogs are 8-1, scoring nearly 100 points per game, and sitting at #8 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com. Tennessee’s 7-3 with a respectable #30 adjusted net rating, but here’s the thing—this line isn’t about records or raw scoring. It’s about the market understanding that Georgia’s defensive dominance and tempo advantage create a matchup nightmare for a Tennessee team that’s already shown cracks against elite competition. The Vols got boat-raced by 24 at Florida and needed overtime to escape Kentucky at home. Meanwhile, Georgia’s protecting Stegeman Coliseum like it’s Fort Knox, and when you dig into the efficiency numbers, this spread might actually be a gift for Bulldogs backers.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Tennessee @ Georgia
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA
DraftKings:
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Total: 159.5
Moneyline: Georgia +105, Tennessee -125
Bovada:
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Total: 159.5
Moneyline: Georgia -140, Tennessee +120
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk efficiency because that’s where this line lives and dies. Georgia checks in at #15 in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.9) and #21 in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.2), giving them that elite #8 adjusted net rating of +24.7. Tennessee? They’re #61 offensively (115.3) and #32 defensively (98.5) for a +16.8 net that lands at #30 nationally. That’s nearly an 8-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, and on a neutral court, Georgia should be favored by 7-8 points.
But here’s where it gets interesting—this isn’t a neutral court. Home court in college basketball is worth roughly 3-4 points, which would push Georgia to a 10-12 point favorite theoretically. Instead, the market’s giving us 2.5. Why? The market respects Tennessee’s defensive rating (#32) and knows the Vols can grind. But here’s what the market might be missing: Georgia’s tempo advantage is massive. The Bulldogs rank #13 nationally in pace (75.2 possessions per game) while Tennessee plods along at #155 (69.3). That’s nearly six extra possessions per game, and when you’re the more efficient team getting more possessions at home, that’s not just an edge—it’s a canyon.
The total at 159.5 is fascinating too. Georgia’s averaging 99.9 points per game (#1 nationally) while Tennessee’s at 80.9 (#120). Even accounting for Tennessee’s slower pace, this total feels low when you consider Georgia’s offensive rating of 127.3 (#33) and their ability to force tempo with 11.1 steals per game (#7 nationally).
Tennessee Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Vols do have some things working in their favor, starting with their defensive foundation. That 95.8 defensive rating (#41) and opponent field goal percentage of 38.5% (#28) show they can still get stops when locked in. They’re holding teams to 29.7% from three (#67), which matters against a Georgia team that’s just #291 nationally in three-point shooting (30.8%).
Ja’Kobi Gillespie is the engine here, averaging 17.3 points and 5.4 assists per game (#50 nationally in assists). Nate Ament gives them a legitimate two-way forward at 16.3 points and 7.1 boards, and their rebounding prowess is real—43.3 rebounds per game ranks #14 nationally with a 36.0% offensive rebounding rate (#31). If Tennessee can slow this game down, crash the glass, and turn this into a half-court slugfest in the 60s, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
But here’s the problem: Tennessee’s turnover issues are glaring. They’re coughing it up 13.2 times per game (#251) with a turnover ratio that ranks #228 nationally. Against Georgia’s ball-hawking defense that ranks #7 in steals, those turnovers become transition buckets, and that’s where this game could get ugly fast.
Georgia Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Georgia isn’t just good—they’re terrifying when you look at the full picture. That 99.9 points per game leads the entire country, but it’s not empty calories. Their 56.2% effective field goal percentage (#59) and 60.9% true shooting percentage (#41) show they’re getting quality looks. They’re elite at the rim and on the break, averaging 258 fast break points through nine games compared to Tennessee’s 97.
The defense is where Georgia separates itself. That 97.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (#21) is backed by 8.7 blocks per game (#1 nationally) and those 11.1 steals (#7). They’re forcing 207 points off turnovers compared to Tennessee’s 144. When you combine that defensive pressure with the #13 pace, you’re looking at a team that dictates terms on both ends.
Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.1 PPG) and Blue Cain (15.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) give them scoring punch, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging between 9-17 points. Marcus Millender runs the show at point guard with 4.3 assists per game (#125), and their turnover management is excellent—11.3 per game (#116) with a turnover ratio that ranks #17 nationally. They don’t beat themselves, and at home, they’re absolutely suffocating.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Tennessee survive Georgia’s pressure and control tempo? The Vols want to grind this into the low 70s, milk possessions, and win on the glass. Georgia wants to push pace, create turnovers, and turn this into a track meet where their superior efficiency shines over 75+ possessions.
The recent head-to-head history favors Tennessee, who won 74-56 last year and 70-41 in 2023. But those Georgia teams weren’t this Georgia team. The 2026 Bulldogs are a different animal entirely—they’re #8 in the country for a reason, and they’re protecting home court with a vengeance.
Tennessee’s turnover issues are the elephant in the room. Against Florida’s pressure, they crumbled. Against Kentucky’s athleticism, they needed overtime to survive. Now they’re walking into Stegeman Coliseum against the #7 team in steals and #1 team in blocks? The math doesn’t add up for the Vols. Every Tennessee turnover becomes a Georgia transition opportunity, and with that pace differential, the Bulldogs will get 72-75 possessions to Tennessee’s 68-70. That’s 4-5 extra chances for the more efficient offense.
Georgia’s three-point shooting (#291) is the one legitimate concern, but when you’re getting to the rim at will, blocking everything in sight, and scoring 416 points in the paint through nine games, you don’t need to be Steph Curry from deep. Tennessee’s interior defense will be tested all night by Georgia’s size and athleticism.
Bash’s Best Bet
Georgia -2.5 (-110)
I’m laying the points with Georgia, and I’m not overthinking it. The efficiency gap is real, the tempo advantage is massive, and Tennessee’s turnover problems are about to get exposed in a hostile environment. Georgia’s 8-1 for a reason, and that #8 adjusted net rating isn’t a fluke. The Bulldogs are better on both ends, they’re playing faster, and they’re at home where they’ve been dominant.
Tennessee’s shown they can hang with good teams, but they’ve also shown they can get run off the floor by elite competition (see: Florida). Georgia’s elite, and this 2.5-point spread feels like the market is giving Tennessee too much credit for past success against inferior Georgia teams. This Bulldogs squad is different—more athletic, more efficient, and more dangerous.
Give me Georgia to win by 7-10 and cover comfortably. The Vols won’t be able to slow this freight train down.
