Elon enters tonight’s contest ranking 35th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, providing a stark contrast to a Towson defense that has held its last two opponents to just 55 points per game. Our prediction centers on whether the Phoenix’s elite shooting can puncture the Tigers’ 94th-ranked defensive scheme.
The Setup: Towson at Elon
Elon’s laying 2.5 points at home against Towson on Thursday night, and this number screams CAA chaos. The Phoenix are averaging 86.7 points per game—that’s 50th nationally—while Towson’s grinding out wins at 70.3 per contest. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t about who scores more. It’s about who can defend less catastrophically, and right now, Elon’s defensive rating of 111.9 ranks 272nd nationally while Towson checks in at 104.1, good for 150th. The Tigers might not light up the scoreboard, but they’ve got the defensive chops to keep this game within striking distance. The question isn’t whether Elon can score—they absolutely can. The question is whether they can stop anyone, and that’s where this number gets interesting.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Towson @ Elon
Date: January 22, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Schar Center, Elon, NC
Type: Conference Game
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Elon -2.5
- Total: 145.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on Elon -2.5, and I can see the logic even if I don’t love it. Elon’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 117.7, ranking 35th nationally—that’s legitimately elite production. Towson counters with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.5, 94th in the country, which represents their calling card. The Phoenix have a home court advantage, but their adjusted defensive rating of 113.6 ranks 299th. That’s not a typo. Nearly 300 teams defend better than Elon.
Here’s where tempo matters: Towson plays at a pace ranking 284th nationally (65.4 possessions), while Elon pushes things slightly faster at 67.8 (203rd). Neither team is running you off the floor, which means fewer possessions and tighter margins. The adjusted net efficiency gap shows Elon at +4.1 (127th) versus Towson’s +2.2 (147th)—a difference of less than two points on a neutral floor. Add home court, and you get to that 2.5-point spread. The number makes mathematical sense, but basketball isn’t played in a spreadsheet. Elon’s defensive liabilities create vulnerability that this spread doesn’t fully account for.
Towson Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Tigers run their offense through Tyler Tejada, who’s averaging 18.8 points per game—63rd nationally—and provides the primary scoring punch. Dylan Williamson adds 15.6 points and 3.3 assists, giving Towson a legitimate two-headed backcourt attack. But look at the shooting splits: 44.4% from the field (229th), 30.0% from three (308th), and a brutal 66.5% from the charity stripe (309th). These aren’t numbers that inspire confidence.
What Towson does well is defend without fouling and control the glass. Their offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9% ranks 59th, and they’re pulling down 39.0 boards per game (95th). They force opponents into 44.5% shooting (232nd) and limit three-point damage at 29.8% (71st). The defensive rating of 104.1 represents their identity—they’re not going to blow you away offensively, but they’ll make you earn every bucket. The problem? They rank 353rd in assists per game at just 10.5. That’s dead last in Division I, and it signals an isolation-heavy offense that can stagnate against quality competition.
Elon Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Chandler Cuthrell is having an absolute monster season, averaging 22.9 points per game—4th in the nation. He’s getting help from Randall Pettus II (15.6 PPG) and solid contributions from Bryson Cokley (12.4 PPG). The Phoenix offense hums at 123.0 (56th in offensive rating), and they’re shooting 46.7% from the field (121st) and 36.6% from deep (76th). Their effective field goal percentage of 55.1% ranks 82nd, and the true shooting mark of 58.5% sits 97th nationally.
Elon moves the ball effectively with 16.7 assists per game (71st) and protects it reasonably well at 10.4 turnovers per contest (52nd). They crash the offensive glass hard, ranking 50th in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3%. But here’s the fatal flaw: they can’t guard a chair. Opponents shoot 45.9% against them (293rd) and 33.2% from three (208th). That defensive rating of 111.9 ranks 272nd, and their adjusted defensive efficiency at 113.6 (299th) confirms this isn’t a sample size issue—they’re legitimately bad on that end.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Towson can exploit Elon’s defensive incompetence before their own offensive limitations catch up to them. The Tigers have won three of their last five, including a tight 59-58 squeaker over Drexel and a quality 61-52 win against Charleston. Elon’s also 3-2 in their last five, with an 89-85 shootout win at Hofstra and a narrow 83-82 escape against Campbell.
The total of 145.5 feels about right given the pace and efficiency numbers, but the spread is where I’m circling. Towson’s offensive rebounding (59th in OR%) against Elon’s willingness to give up second chances creates extra possessions for the Tigers. Tejada and Williamson should get clean looks against Elon’s porous perimeter defense. Meanwhile, Cuthrell will get his points—he always does—but Towson’s defensive rating suggests they can limit the supporting cast.
The head-to-head history leans Towson’s way, with the Tigers winning 80-55 in 2024 and 66-62 in 2023 at Elon. The Phoenix got revenge with a 69-63 home win last season, but that’s one victory in the last three meetings. Towson knows how to play in the Schar Center, and they’ve got the defensive identity to weather Elon’s offensive firepower.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Towson +2.5, and I’m not overthinking this one. Elon can score with anyone in the CAA, but they can’t stop anyone either. Towson’s defensive rating of 104.1 versus Elon’s 111.9 creates a massive advantage in a conference game where possessions are limited. The Tigers’ offensive rebounding gives them second-chance opportunities against a Phoenix team that doesn’t defend the glass particularly well.
Yes, Elon has Cuthrell, who’s a legitimate star. But Towson’s got the defensive structure to make everyone else work for their points. In a game projected to stay in the mid-140s for total points, getting nearly a field goal with the better defensive team feels like value. Towson covers and potentially wins outright. Give me the Tigers getting the points.
