The American Athletic Conference race heats up in Tampa as the South Florida Bulls host the UAB Blazers at the Yuengling Center. While UAB brings a winning record and a stout defensive reputation, the market has installed the Bulls as significant home favorites. Our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and why South Florida’s elite offensive efficiency makes them a primary ATS pick for this Sunday afternoon clash.
The Setup: UAB at South Florida
South Florida is laying 6 to 6.5 points at home against UAB in an American Athletic Conference matchup, and here’s the thing – this number is telling us the market respects UAB’s defense way more than their offense deserves. The Blazers come to Tampa with a 7-3 record that looks solid on paper, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, you’ll see a team that’s been propped up by playing slow and hoping their elite defense can cover for an offense that ranks 357th nationally in three-point shooting. South Florida, meanwhile, sits at 5-4 but boasts the 54th-ranked adjusted offense in the country and ranks 46th in adjusted net efficiency. This is a classic case where records lie and the efficiency gap tells the real story. Let me walk you through why this home favorite has significant value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: UAB at South Florida
Date: January 4, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Yuengling Center, Tampa, FL
Spread: South Florida -6 to -6.5
Total: 163.5
Moneyline: South Florida -250, UAB +205
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense, and honestly, why it might be a point or two short: The adjusted efficiency gap according to collegebasketballdata.com shows South Florida with a 116.0 adjusted offensive rating (54th nationally) against UAB’s 100.7 adjusted defensive rating (47th). That’s a quality defense, no question. But flip it around – UAB’s 108.4 adjusted offensive rating (163rd) going against South Florida’s 101.8 adjusted defensive rating (60th) creates a much wider advantage for the home team.
The Bulls’ adjusted net efficiency sits at 14.1 (46th nationally) compared to UAB’s 7.7 (95th). That’s a 6.4-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, and we’re getting a spread that’s right in that neighborhood. The market is basically saying these teams are closer than the efficiency numbers suggest, and I’m not buying it.
Both teams play at similar tempos – UAB at 65.8 possessions per game (272nd) and South Florida at 67.1 (235th) – so we’re looking at roughly 66-67 possessions in this game. Do that math over 66 possessions with the efficiency advantage, and you’re looking at a double-digit South Florida win before you even factor in home court.
UAB’s Situation
The Blazers do two things well: they defend the three-point line (29.1% opponent shooting, 50th nationally) and they crash the offensive glass (35.2% offensive rebound rate, 52nd). That’s not just good rebounding – it’s why UAB can survive with such poor shooting. When you’re hitting just 26.9% from three (357th in the country), you need those second chances to generate enough offense.
Chance Westry leads the way at 15.9 points per game, and he’s the primary playmaker with 4.0 assists per contest. Jacob Meyer adds 14.7 points, but here’s the problem: this team has no perimeter shooting threat. They rank 302nd in effective field goal percentage at 48.7%, which is brutal in modern college basketball.
Their recent form shows the cracks. They just lost to Wichita State 75-70 and dropped a heartbreaker to Troy 86-85. Sure, they dominated Cleveland State 101-77, but that’s Cleveland State. The defense remains elite (107.3 defensive rating, though the adjusted number at 100.7 is what matters), but this offense is going to struggle against a South Florida team that forces turnovers and runs.
South Florida’s Situation
The Bulls are rolling right now with four straight wins, and the offensive firepower is legit. They’re scoring 89.4 points per game (22nd nationally) with a 127.4 offensive rating (32nd). CJ Brown is the engine here – 13.7 points and 5.2 assists per game (64th nationally in assists). That’s not just ball distribution – it’s why South Florida ranks 78th in assists per game at 16.4.
Izaiyah Nelson is a monster on the glass at 9.3 rebounds per game (32nd nationally), and the Bulls rank 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.5%. They’re going to match UAB’s physicality on the boards, which takes away the Blazers’ primary offensive advantage.
The concern is the defense – they’re allowing 80.1 points per game (317th) and opponents are shooting 36.1% from three against them (306th). But here’s the thing: UAB can’t shoot threes. The Blazers are 357th in three-point percentage. South Florida’s defensive weakness doesn’t matter nearly as much in this matchup.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on South Florida’s ability to generate offense in transition and through offensive rebounds. Both teams rank in the top 52 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, so the glass is going to be a battle. But South Florida has the advantage in every other phase.
The three-point shooting gap is massive. South Florida shoots 31.5% from deep (256th) while UAB is at 26.9% (357th). In a game with 66-67 possessions, if each team attempts 20 threes, that’s a 9-point swing right there just from the shooting percentage gap.
I keep coming back to those adjusted offensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. South Florida at 116.0 (54th) versus UAB at 108.4 (163rd) – that’s a 7.6-point gap in adjusted offensive efficiency. Over 66 possessions, that translates to roughly 5 points per game, and that’s before accounting for home court advantage.
The Bulls also force more turnovers (10.0 steals per game, 24th nationally) than UAB does (9.0, 48th), and while the Blazers take care of the ball well (10.0 turnovers per game, 37th), South Florida’s pressure could create 2-3 extra possessions. In a relatively slow-paced game, that’s huge.
My Play
The Pick: South Florida -6 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with South Florida at home. The adjusted efficiency gap is too massive, the offensive firepower advantage is clear, and UAB’s inability to shoot from the perimeter neutralizes South Florida’s biggest defensive weakness. The Bulls have won four straight and are playing with confidence, while UAB just lost to Wichita State and barely survived Drake on the road.
I’m projecting South Florida 82, UAB 71. That’s an 11-point win that covers comfortably at -6.
The main risk here is if UAB turns this into an absolute rock fight in the 50s and 60s, where their defense can grind out possessions and their offensive rebounding keeps them in it. But South Florida’s tempo (67.1 possessions) is slightly faster, and at home, they should dictate pace.
I’ve considered all of that, and the offensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. South Florida covers at home.
