UC San Diego heads north with a 116.9 adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks 44th nationally. Our prediction centers on whether the Tritons’ 7th-ranked three-point shooting can puncture a UC Davis defense that has turned the UCU Center into a Big West fortress this season.
The Setup: UC San Diego at UC Davis
UC San Diego is laying 2.5 to 3 points on the road at UC Davis, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why the Tritons aren’t getting more respect at 8-1, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread tells you exactly what the market thinks about Big West road games and what happens when elite offense meets competent defense in a conference slugfest.
The Tritons roll into Davis with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 44th nationally at 116.9, paired with shooting splits that’ll make you do a double-take—51% from the field, 40.9% from three (7th in the country), and an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% that ranks 13th nationally. That’s not just good. That’s elite.
But UC Davis isn’t rolling over. The Aggies sit at 5-3 with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.3, ranked 124th nationally. They’re protecting home court, they’ve got offensive balance, and they’re catching a Tritons team that’s dropped two of their last five. This number sits at a short spread for a reason, and we’re about to break down exactly why.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: UC San Diego (8-1) @ UC Davis (5-3)
Date: January 22, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
Conference: Big West
DraftKings:
Spread: UC San Diego -2.5
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: UC San Diego -148 / UC Davis +124
Bovada:
Spread: UC San Diego -3
Total: 152
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the efficiency gap. UC San Diego’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 11.2 (64th nationally), while UC Davis checks in at 3.6 (131st). That’s a difference of 7.6 points on a neutral court. Factor in home court advantage—typically worth 3-4 points in college basketball—and you’re looking at a projected spread somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5 points.
So why is the market only giving San Diego 2.5 to 3? Two reasons. First, the Tritons have been shaky lately, dropping games to Cal State Northridge and Cal State Fullerton in their last five. Second, UC Davis has actually been the better defensive team when you adjust for competition—105.3 adjusted defensive efficiency versus San Diego’s 105.8. That’s razor-thin, but it matters.
The total sitting at 152 to 153.5 makes complete sense when you factor tempo. San Diego plays at a 68.5 pace (179th nationally), while Davis pushes it slightly faster at 70.6 (117th). Split the difference, add in the offensive and defensive ratings, and you’re projecting around 152-154 points. The market nailed this one.
What’s interesting is how this spread has settled. The efficiency numbers suggest San Diego should be getting closer to 4, but the market is respecting UC Davis’s home court and recent form. That compression tells me something—the sharp money isn’t convinced the Tritons can cover a bigger number on the road in conference play.
UC San Diego Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Tritons are an offensive machine, plain and simple. That 40.9% three-point shooting percentage ranks 7th nationally, and they’re doing it with a true shooting percentage of 62.4% (21st). Leo Beath is the engine, averaging 18.9 points per game and ranking 58th nationally in scoring. Tom Beattie provides the playmaking at 4.1 assists per game (152nd nationally), and Aidan Burke gives them another scoring threat at 11.4 per game.
What separates San Diego is their ball security. They’re turning it over just 9.9 times per game (29th nationally) with a turnover ratio of 0.1 that ranks 17th in the country. When you can shoot like they do AND protect the basketball, you’re going to win games.
The concern? They can’t rebound. Their offensive rebound percentage of 24.0% ranks 355th nationally. That’s brutal. They’re also not getting to the free-throw line efficiently, and when they do, they’re only converting at 68.6% (262nd). Against a UC Davis team that’s going to make them work for everything, those weaknesses matter.
UC Davis Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Aggies don’t have San Diego’s offensive firepower, but they’ve got balance and they defend well enough to stay in games. Nils Cooper leads the way at 17.1 points per game (128th nationally), Connor Sevilla adds 14.5 (349th), and Marcus Wilson provides the playmaking at 3.1 assists per game.
Where Davis has the edge is on the glass. Their offensive rebound percentage of 28.6% ranks 274th nationally—not great, but significantly better than San Diego’s 355th-ranked mark. They’re also more active defensively with 8.0 steals per game (106th) and 3.2 blocks per game (213th).
The problem is turnovers. UC Davis is coughing it up 14.0 times per game (300th nationally) with a turnover ratio of 0.2 that ranks 274th. Against a San Diego team that takes care of the ball and converts mistakes into points, those extra possessions are going to be costly. The Aggies have also been inconsistent lately, dropping games to Cal Poly and Cal State Bakersfield in their last five.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether UC Davis can force San Diego into uncomfortable possessions and capitalize on the glass. The Tritons want to play clean, efficient offense—catch and shoot threes, limit turnovers, and avoid second-chance opportunities. The Aggies need chaos.
The turnover battle is critical. San Diego gives it away just 9.9 times per game while Davis is averaging 14.0 turnovers. If the Aggies can flip that script at home and create extra possessions through their 8.0 steals per game, they’ve got a shot to keep this inside the number.
The other key is three-point shooting. San Diego is elite from deep at 40.9% (7th nationally), while Davis is just adequate at 34.2% (160th). If the Tritons get hot from three in a conference road game, this could get ugly fast. But if Davis can contest shots and force San Diego into mid-range jumpers, they can keep it close.
I keep coming back to San Diego’s rebounding deficiency. UC Davis isn’t a great rebounding team either, but they’re better. If the Aggies can generate second-chance points and limit San Diego to one-and-done possessions, they’ve got the defensive efficiency to make this a grind-it-out game.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking UC San Diego -2.5, and here’s why. The efficiency gap is real—7.6 points on a neutral court is significant, even after you factor in home court advantage. San Diego’s offense is too good, too efficient, and too disciplined to get bogged down by a UC Davis team that turns it over 14 times per game.
Yes, the Tritons have been shaky lately. Yes, they can’t rebound. But when you’re shooting 40.9% from three and protecting the ball like they do, you can overcome a lot of weaknesses. UC Davis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace if San Diego gets even moderately hot from deep.
The market is giving us value here because they’re worried about road performance and recent form. I’m betting on elite offensive efficiency and ball security to win out in a Big West conference game. Give me the Tritons laying the short number.
