The Colorado State Rams host UNLV as 7.5-point favorites at Moby Arena, and with our expert ATS pick, we evaluate if the Rams’ nation-leading shooting can overwhelm the Rebels’ porous defense.
The Setup: UNLV at Colorado State
Colorado State is laying 7.5 points at home against UNLV on Friday night, and I can already hear the skepticism: That’s a lot of points in a conference game between Mountain West teams with similar talent levels. Look, I get it. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t your typical toss-up conference matchup. The Rams are 7-2 and sporting some absolutely elite offensive metrics, while UNLV comes in at 4-5 with a defense that ranks 285th nationally in defensive rating. Here’s the thing – this spread isn’t about Colorado State being dominant everywhere. It’s about them being historically good at the one thing that matters most against a team that can’t stop anyone. Let me walk you through why this number actually makes sense, even if it feels a bit high at first glance.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: UNLV at Colorado State
Date: January 9, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Spread: Colorado State -7.5 (DraftKings) / -7 (Bovada)
Total: 151.5 / 151
Type: Mountain West Conference Game
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is staggering, and it’s all on the offensive end. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Colorado State ranks 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 122.6 – that’s elite company. UNLV checks in at 144th with a 109.4 adjusted offensive rating. That’s a 13.2-point gap in offensive efficiency when you adjust for competition level.
But here’s where it gets really interesting: Colorado State’s shooting numbers are borderline absurd. They’re shooting 45.9% from three-point range, which ranks 1st in the entire country. Their effective field goal percentage of 64.5% ranks 2nd nationally, and their true shooting percentage of 68.7% is also 1st. That’s not just good shooting – it’s historically efficient offense that’s almost impossible to sustain, but they’re doing it through nine games.
Now pair that with UNLV’s defensive struggles. The Rebels are allowing 84.8 points per game, which ranks 348th nationally – that’s bottom-20 territory. Their defensive rating of 112.5 ranks 285th per collegebasketballdata.com. When you’ve got the nation’s most efficient offense facing a defense that can’t stop anyone, the math starts to make sense. Do that math over 70 possessions at Colorado State’s glacial pace (359th nationally at 57.4 possessions per game), and you’re looking at a double-digit margin.
The one thing working against a blowout? Colorado State’s defense isn’t exactly lockdown either, ranking 267th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 111.7. But UNLV’s offense, while fast-paced (11th nationally at 75.3 possessions per game), isn’t efficient enough to exploit it consistently.
UNLV’s Situation
The Rebels do exactly one thing well: they push tempo. Ranking 11th nationally in pace, UNLV wants to get up and down the floor and create chaos. Emmanuel Stephen is a legitimate force inside at 18.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, and Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn provides scoring punch at 16.4 points per contest (174th nationally).
But here’s the problem: they can’t shoot. UNLV ranks 344th nationally in three-point percentage at just 28.5%. That’s catastrophic in modern college basketball, especially when you’re trying to keep pace with a team that shoots 46% from deep. Their effective field goal percentage of 51.1% ranks just 218th, and their offensive rating of 110.5 is only 192nd nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com.
The recent results tell the story. They got walloped 98-66 at Wyoming in their last outing, and while they’ve beaten up on inferior competition (89-47 over La Sierra, 67-39 against Air Force), they’ve struggled against quality opponents. That 60-63 loss to Tennessee State is particularly concerning – that’s the kind of game a tournament-caliber team doesn’t lose.
Colorado State’s Situation
The Rams are balanced and brutally efficient. Josh Pascarelli leads at 15.7 points per game, but they’ve got five guys averaging between 8.1 and 15.7 points. Kyle Jorgensen (15.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Carey Booth (13.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG) provide interior presence, while Jevin Muniz runs the show with 5.1 assists per game (72nd nationally).
That shooting efficiency I mentioned earlier? It’s not a fluke – it’s a system. Colorado State ranks 24th nationally in assists per game at 18.8, meaning they’re generating quality looks through ball movement. They shoot 80.9% from the free throw line (3rd nationally) and 52.6% overall from the field (8th). These are elite offensive numbers across the board.
The concern is recent form. They’ve dropped three of their last five, including an ugly 100-58 beatdown at Utah State and losses to New Mexico and Nevada. But that 104-54 destruction of Northern New Mexico in their last game suggests they’re finding their rhythm again. At home in Moby Arena, where the altitude and atmosphere matter, they’re a different animal.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on one matchup: Colorado State’s elite shooting against UNLV’s porous perimeter defense. The Rebels allow opponents to shoot 32.9% from three (188th nationally), which sounds decent until you realize they’re facing the best three-point shooting team in America. That’s a recipe for disaster.
The pace battle is fascinating. UNLV wants 75+ possessions; Colorado State prefers 57. Whoever controls tempo gains a massive edge. But here’s the thing – Colorado State’s efficiency is so extreme that even if UNLV speeds the game up, the Rams might just score on 70% of their possessions anyway. When you’re shooting 64.5% effective field goal percentage, more possessions might actually help the favorite.
UNLV’s offensive rebounding (34.3%, 81st nationally) could keep them in this game. Colorado State ranks 339th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 26.0%, suggesting they don’t crash the glass hard. If Emmanuel Stephen and the Rebels can generate second-chance points, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
But I keep coming back to those shooting numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. The gap between Colorado State’s 45.9% from three and UNLV’s 28.5% is 17.4 percentage points. If both teams attempt 20 threes, that’s roughly 10 extra points for Colorado State just from three-point efficiency. Add in Colorado State’s home court advantage at altitude, and the margin grows.
My Play
The Pick: Colorado State -7.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered all of that, and Colorado State’s offensive efficiency advantage is still too massive to ignore. This isn’t about the Rams being a complete team – their defense is mediocre at best. But when you’re the nation’s most efficient offense facing the 285th-ranked defense, you don’t need to be complete. You just need to do what you do best.
The main risk here is if UNLV’s pace completely disrupts Colorado State’s rhythm and turns this into a track meet where variance matters more than efficiency. Emmanuel Stephen could also dominate inside if Carey Booth gets in foul trouble. And those recent Colorado State losses show they’re not invincible.
But at home in Moby Arena, with their shooting touch back after that 104-point explosion last game, I’m backing the Rams to cover. The shooting gap is too wide, the defensive matchup too favorable, and the home court too significant. I’m projecting something around Colorado State 82, UNLV 72 – a comfortable double-digit win that covers the number with room to spare. Colorado State’s offense is simply too good for UNLV’s defense to handle.
