Our comprehensive betting preview for Jan 3 pits Thijs De Ridder against an NC State squad looking for its fifth straight win. Using advanced handicapping data and adjusted efficiency ratings, we evaluate the 153.5 total pick for this 11 AM tip-off.
The Setup: Virginia at NC State
NC State is laying 4.5 points at home against Virginia on Friday morning, and at first glance, this feels like a classic ACC toss-up. Both teams can score, both squads feature top-15 three-point shooting nationally, and the records are respectable. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t telling the full story. Virginia comes in with an adjusted net efficiency rating of 21.1 (15th nationally), while NC State sits at 14.8 (42nd). That’s a significant gap, yet the Wolfpack are getting home court respect with just a 4.5-point cushion. My thesis is simple: Virginia’s elite adjusted offensive efficiency (#9 at 123.4) and significantly better defensive profile create a mismatch that 4.5 points doesn’t adequately capture, especially in an 11 AM tip that could catch NC State sluggish.
This is a conference game that matters for ACC positioning, and both teams are coming off different emotional trajectories. Virginia just dropped their first loss at Virginia Tech, while NC State has been rolling through a softer stretch. Let me walk you through why the Cavaliers represent the value side here.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Virginia @ NC State
Date: January 3, 2026
Time: 11:00 AM ET
Venue: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Spread: NC State -4.5
Total: 153-153.5
Moneyline: N/A
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense on the surface but breaks down under scrutiny. NC State’s offensive rating of 142.1 ranks 7th nationally – that’s elite territory. They’re shooting 50% from the field (#35) and 39.8% from three (#16, tied with Virginia). The Wolfpack can absolutely light you up. But that’s where the good news ends for the home side.
The defensive numbers from collegebasketballdata.com are what jump off the page. Virginia’s adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 102.3 (#69), while NC State checks in at 107.8 (#174). That’s over five points per 100 possessions, and in a game that’ll likely feature 65-68 possessions given Virginia’s pace of 67.7 (#204), we’re talking about a meaningful difference. But it gets worse for the Wolfpack – their raw defensive rating is 121.6, ranking 349th nationally. That’s not a typo. They’re allowing 75.8 points per game (#243) and surrendering 43.5% shooting from the field (#184).
Now pair that defensive vulnerability with Virginia’s offensive firepower. The Cavaliers rank 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 123.4, scoring 87.4 points per game (#41) while shooting 57.9% effective field goal percentage (#29). Do that math over 67 possessions, and you’re looking at Virginia having every opportunity to hit their offensive average or better against a defense that’s shown consistent leakage.
The efficiency gap here is massive: Virginia’s adjusted net rating of 21.1 versus NC State’s 14.8 represents nearly seven points per 100 possessions. Over a full game, that’s the difference between a pick’em and a legitimate road favorite.
Virginia’s Situation
The Cavaliers are 8-1 and just suffered their first loss, a 95-85 shootout at Virginia Tech. That game actually reinforces what makes them dangerous – they can score with anybody. Virginia is putting up 87.4 points per game while maintaining excellent efficiency metrics across the board.
Thijs De Ridder leads the way at 16.4 points per game (#174 nationally), but the depth is what matters. Malik Thomas (12.1 PPG), Chance Mallory (11.9 PPG), and Jacari White (10.9 PPG) give them four legitimate scoring threats. Mallory adds 5.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists (#359 nationally), providing secondary playmaking.
Here’s what separates Virginia: they rank 2nd nationally in blocks per game at 7.0, and they’re grabbing 43.1 rebounds per game (#15). That’s not just rim protection – it’s why they control possessions and limit second chances. Their 35.1% offensive rebounding rate (#54) creates extra opportunities.
The weakness? Free throw shooting at 68.9% (#253) is concerning in a close game, and they don’t force many turnovers with just 6.3 steals per game (#255). But their turnover rate is excellent – just 10.7 per game (#67) means they protect the ball.
NC State’s Situation
The Wolfpack are 6-3 and riding positive momentum with four straight wins, but the competition level matters. They’ve beaten Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Texas Southern, and Liberty in that stretch – not exactly murderer’s row. Their lone quality opponent was Kansas, and they lost 77-76.
Offensively, NC State is legitimately explosive. Darrion Williams (16.7 PPG, #160) and Quadir Copeland (14.4 PPG, 4.9 APG #87) form a dynamic duo. Ven-Allen Lubin adds 13.3 points and 7.4 rebounds (#132), giving them interior presence. Their 58.8% effective field goal percentage (#20) and 62.9% true shooting (#16) show elite shot quality.
But I keep coming back to those defensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A defensive rating of 121.6 (349th) means they’re getting torched nightly. They’re allowing 35.2% from three (#288) and 43.5% overall shooting (#184). Their rebounding is a major problem – just 35.6 boards per game (#236) and a 27.8% offensive rebounding rate (#300) means they’re getting killed on the glass.
The pace differential is critical here. NC State plays at 62.6 possessions per game (#329), one of the slowest in the country. Virginia prefers 67.7 (#204). That five-possession gap might not sound like much, but it’s significant – and Virginia will likely dictate tempo as the better defensive team.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on three factors: rebounding, three-point shooting variance, and pace control.
Virginia holds a massive rebounding advantage – 43.1 boards per game (#15) versus 35.6 (#236). That 7.5-rebound gap translates to extra possessions and fewer second chances for NC State. When you factor in Virginia’s 35.1% offensive rebounding rate against NC State’s poor defensive rebounding, the Cavaliers should dominate the glass. That’s worth 4-6 points right there.
Both teams shoot 39.8% from three, so that’s a wash on paper. But Virginia’s defense allows just 30.9% from deep (#103), while NC State surrenders 35.2% (#288). The Cavaliers should get better looks from distance, and that efficiency edge matters.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Virginia’s elite shot-blocking (7.0 per game, #2) against NC State’s perimeter-oriented attack. The Wolfpack don’t have the size or rebounding to overcome Virginia’s interior presence. Lubin at 7.4 rebounds per game is their only real board threat, and he’ll face De Ridder (6.0 RPG) plus a rotation that swarms the glass.
The 11 AM tip time favors Virginia’s experience and discipline. NC State’s offensive rhythm could be off early, and against a defense ranked 69th in adjusted efficiency, they can’t afford a slow start.
My Play
I’m backing Virginia +4.5 with confidence, and I’d play this up to +3.5. The adjusted efficiency gap of nearly seven points per 100 possessions is too massive to ignore when you’re getting points. Virginia is the better team by every meaningful metric – better net rating (#15 vs #42), better defense by over 100 spots in adjusted efficiency, and a significant rebounding advantage.
The main risk here is if NC State gets hot from three early and builds a cushion, but even then, Virginia has shown they can score with anyone (95 points at Virginia Tech in a loss). I’ve considered the home court advantage and NC State’s offensive firepower, and the defensive disparity is still too extreme to lay points with the Wolfpack.
I’m projecting Virginia 79, NC State 76. Give me the better team, the better defense, and the points in an 11 AM conference road game. Virginia +4.5 for 2 units.
