ACC play begins with a high-stakes matchup in Raleigh, making the home favorite a popular pick given NC State’s 11th-ranked offensive efficiency. Bryan Bash breaks down the point spread and why the Wolfpack’s methodical pace (62.6 possessions per game) could dictate the margin at Lenovo Center.
The Setup: Wake Forest at NC State
NC State’s laying 9.5 points at home against Wake Forest in a noon ACC tip on New Year’s Eve, and on the surface, this looks like a classic conference game where the favorite struggles to cover. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t just justified, it might actually be a touch light. The Wolfpack rank 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 122.6, while Wake Forest sits at 87th with a 113.3 mark. That’s a massive gap, and we’re getting a home court environment where NC State has been absolutely scorching nets. The Deacs have the defensive chops to keep this interesting – they rank 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency – but I keep coming back to those offensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. This game lives and dies on whether Wake Forest can slow down what’s been one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Wake Forest (7-3) @ NC State (6-3)
Date: December 31, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Spread: NC State -9.5
Total: 158.5
Moneyline: NC State -500, Wake Forest +360
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency math that makes this 9.5-point spread look reasonable. NC State’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.6 ranks 11th in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Wake Forest checks in at 113.3 (87th). That’s a 9.3-point gap per 100 possessions in offensive capability. Now flip to the defensive side: Wake’s adjusted defensive rating of 100.0 ranks 41st nationally, while NC State sits at 107.8 (174th). That’s a 7.8-point advantage for the Deacs on that end.
Here’s where it gets interesting – NC State plays at a glacial pace, ranking 329th nationally at just 62.6 possessions per game. Wake Forest operates faster at 71.9 (71st), but in Raleigh, the Wolfpack will dictate tempo. If we’re looking at roughly 65 possessions in this one, NC State’s offensive advantage should generate about 6 extra points, while Wake’s defensive edge claws back maybe 5. Add in 3-4 points for home court, and you’re staring at a 9-10 point expected margin. The line isn’t inflated – it’s actually pretty damn accurate based on the underlying numbers.
Wake Forest’s Situation
The Deacs bring legitimate defensive credentials into Raleigh, ranking 54th in defensive rating at 97.6 and 37th in opponent three-point percentage at just 28.3%. That three-point defense is critical because NC State lives beyond the arc, shooting 39.8% (16th nationally). Wake Forest also forces chaos with 9.7 steals per game (33rd), which could disrupt NC State’s methodical offensive approach.
The problem is on the other end. Wake’s shooting 33.6% from three (178th) and posting just a 52.5% effective field goal percentage (154th). Juke Harris is a stud, averaging 20.7 points per game (22nd nationally), but after him and Tre’Von Spillers (14.2 PPG), the scoring drops off considerably. Point guard Nate Calmese dishes 5.9 assists per game (28th), but he’s not a scoring threat at 8.1 PPG. Against NC State’s 174th-ranked adjusted defense, Wake should generate decent looks – the question is whether they can convert efficiently enough to keep pace.
That blowout loss to Vanderbilt (67-98) is concerning, showing what happens when Wake faces elite offensive efficiency. NC State presents a similar challenge.
NC State’s Situation
The Wolfpack are an offensive machine right now, ranking 7th nationally in offensive rating at 142.1 and 20th in effective field goal percentage at 58.8%. They’re shooting 39.8% from three (16th) and 50.0% overall from the field (35th). That’s elite shooting across the board, and they’ve got balance with four guys scoring between 11-17 points per game. Darrion Williams leads at 16.7 PPG, but Quadir Copeland (14.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Ven-Allen Lubin (13.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG) provide multiple scoring threats.
The concern is obvious: NC State ranks 349th in defensive rating at 121.6. They give up 75.8 points per game (243rd) and allow opponents to shoot 35.2% from three (288th). That’s atrocious, and it’s why Wake Forest has a puncher’s chance here. The Wolfpack also rank 300th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 27.8%, which could allow Wake to limit second-chance opportunities.
But here’s why I’m not panicking about that defense: at home, in a slower-paced game, NC State can control possessions and rely on their elite shooting to build cushion. They’ve won four of their last five, including a quality 76-62 win over Ole Miss.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game hinges on one critical matchup: NC State’s elite shooting (39.8% from three, 16th nationally) against Wake Forest’s strong three-point defense (28.3% allowed, 37th). Something’s gotta give. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the Wolfpack have been one of the nation’s best shooting teams, while the Deacs have been stingy from distance. If NC State shoots anywhere near their season average, they’ll blow this game open. If Wake forces them into contested twos and wins the turnover battle with their 9.7 steals per game, this stays tight.
The pace battle matters enormously. NC State wants 62-65 possessions; Wake Forest prefers 70+. In Raleigh, the home team usually gets their way, which favors the Wolfpack. Do that math over 65 possessions instead of 72, and you’re looking at 7-8 fewer scoring opportunities for Wake Forest. That’s a 15-point swing right there when you factor in efficiency.
I keep coming back to NC State’s offensive efficiency numbers because at 122.6 (11th), they’re in the elite tier. Wake’s 113.3 mark is solid but not special. Over a full game, even with Wake’s defensive advantages, that gap is too large. The Wolfpack will get quality looks, and they’ve proven they can convert them at a high rate.
My Play
The Pick: NC State -9.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered Wake Forest’s defensive credentials and their ability to slow down perimeter shooting, but NC State’s offensive efficiency is still too massive to ignore. The 11th-ranked adjusted offense against the 174th-ranked adjusted defense creates enough separation to overcome Wake’s 41st-ranked defensive profile. At home, controlling tempo, with elite shooting touch, the Wolfpack should win this by 12-15 points.
The main risk here is if Wake’s three-point defense completely neutralizes NC State’s perimeter game and forces them into a half-court grind where possessions get limited and variance increases. But NC State shoots 50% from two-point range (35th nationally), so they’re not one-dimensional. They can score inside if needed.
Score Prediction: NC State 84, Wake Forest 71
Give me the Wolfpack laying the points at home. The efficiency gap is real, the shooting numbers back it up, and Wake Forest doesn’t have the offensive firepower to trade buckets in a track meet. NC State covers.
