North Carolina is laying double digits at home against a 7-3 Wake Forest team, but is the market overrating the Dean Dome advantage? Bash dives into the handicapping data to see if the Deacons’ offensive rebounding can keep this within the number. Get his ATS pick below
The Setup: Wake Forest at North Carolina
North Carolina’s laying 10.5 points at home against Wake Forest, and on the surface, this looks like a classic ACC rivalry game where double digits might be too many. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t your typical toss-up conference matchup. The Tar Heels are sitting at #28 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +18.1, while Wake Forest checks in at #50 with a +13.4 mark. That’s a significant gap, but what really jumps out is the defensive disparity. Carolina ranks 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5), while the Deacs sit at 41st (100.0). In the Dean Dome, against a Wake Forest team that’s struggled mightily on the road lately – including that 67-98 beatdown at Vanderbilt and a 57-70 loss at NC State – I’m not running away from this number. Let me walk you through why this spread actually makes more sense than you might think.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Wake Forest (7-3) at North Carolina (8-1)
Date: January 10, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Spread: North Carolina -10 to -10.5
Total: 152-152.5
Moneyline: North Carolina -600, Wake Forest +425
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells most of the story here, but let’s break down what these numbers actually mean for Saturday’s game. North Carolina’s offensive rating sits at 116.2 (#113 nationally) with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.6 (#58). Wake Forest counters with a 112.9 offensive rating (#155) and 113.3 adjusted offensive efficiency (#87). That’s roughly a 2.3-point edge per 100 possessions for Carolina on offense.
But here’s where this line gets justified – the defensive side. The Tar Heels are holding opponents to a 92.3 defensive rating (#22 nationally), and that opponent field goal percentage of 36.8% ranks 8th in the country. Wake Forest’s defense isn’t bad – they’re at 97.6 defensive rating (#54) – but that’s still a five-point gap per 100 possessions. Do that math over 70 possessions at Carolina’s pace (#128 at 70.2), and you’re looking at roughly 3.5 points on defense alone.
Add the offensive and defensive edges together, and Carolina has about a 5.8-point efficiency advantage per 100 possessions. Over 70 possessions, that translates to roughly an 11-12 point expected margin. The line at 10-10.5 isn’t inflated – it’s actually right where the numbers suggest it should be. That’s not just efficiency ratings – it’s why North Carolina has covered this type of number consistently at home this season.
Wake Forest’s Situation
The Deacons come in at 7-3, but that record is deceptive when you examine the quality of competition. They’ve got some offensive firepower with Juke Harris leading the way at 20.7 PPG (#22 nationally), and Nate Calmese is a legitimate playmaker at 5.9 assists per game (#28). Their offensive rebounding percentage of 35.9% ranks 35th nationally, which gives them second-chance opportunities.
Here’s what concerns me about Wake’s chances: they’re shooting just 33.6% from three (#178) and 45.4% overall (#179). Those shooting percentages are bottom-tier for a team trying to hang with an elite defensive squad. Their recent road performances are alarming – that 31-point loss to Vanderbilt and 13-point defeat at NC State show what happens when they face quality competition away from home. Even in their last game against Miami, they gave up 81 points in a loss. The pace matchup doesn’t favor them either – Wake runs at 71.9 possessions (#71) while Carolina slows it to 70.2 (#128). The Deacs need transition opportunities to maximize their offensive efficiency, and they’re not getting them in Chapel Hill.
North Carolina’s Situation
The Tar Heels are 8-1 with their only loss coming in a shootout at SMU (83-97), and they’ve been dominant at home. What stands out immediately is that rebounding edge – 43.4 boards per game ranks 11th nationally. Caleb Wilson is a monster on the glass at 10.6 RPG (#14), and Henri Veesaar adds another 9.2 (#34). That’s a combined 19.8 rebounds from just two players.
Carolina’s defense is the real story here. That 36.8% opponent field goal percentage (#8) is elite, and they’re holding teams to just 65.0 PPG (#23). The defensive rating of 92.3 (#22) means they’re suffocating opponents’ offensive possessions. Seth Trimble gives them another scoring option at 14.5 PPG, and the backcourt of Luka Bogavac (3.0 APG) and Kyan Evans (4.0 APG, #163) can distribute effectively. They’re not a great three-point shooting team at 31.7% (#251), but they don’t need to be when they’re controlling the paint and the glass this thoroughly. That 71-70 win at Ohio State shows they can grind out tough games in hostile environments – the Dean Dome should be a cakewalk by comparison.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the boards and interior defense. Carolina’s rebounding advantage is massive – 43.4 RPG (#11) versus Wake’s 37.0 (#179). That’s a six-rebound difference per game, and in a game with roughly 70 possessions, those extra opportunities are worth 8-10 points. Wake’s offensive rebounding at 35.9% (#35) is solid, but Carolina’s size with Wilson and Veesaar should neutralize that strength.
The three-point shooting matchup heavily favors the Tar Heels defensively. Wake shoots just 33.6% from deep (#178), and Carolina holds opponents to 29.4% (#59). That’s a recipe for Wake going cold from the perimeter, which forces them into contested twos against an elite interior defense. Meanwhile, Carolina’s opponent field goal percentage of 36.8% (#8) suggests Wake’s going to struggle to find quality looks all night.
I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Carolina’s 97.5 adjusted defensive efficiency (#26) against Wake’s 113.3 adjusted offensive efficiency (#87) creates a massive mismatch. Wake’s best offensive player, Juke Harris, will face constant defensive pressure, and without consistent three-point shooting to space the floor, the Deacs’ offense will bog down. Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Carolina’s defensive rebounding against Wake’s need for second chances. The Tar Heels will limit Wake to one shot per possession, and that offensive rebounding edge Wake normally enjoys (35.9%, #35) disappears against Wilson and Veesaar.
My Play
The Pick: North Carolina -10 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with the Tar Heels at home. The efficiency gap is too significant, the rebounding mismatch is too extreme, and Wake’s road struggles are too concerning to fade Carolina here. The main risk here is if Wake gets hot from three early and builds confidence, but their 33.6% season mark suggests that’s unlikely against Carolina’s perimeter defense.
I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Carolina wins this game by controlling the paint, dominating the glass, and forcing Wake into contested jumpers all night. My projection has this landing around UNC 81, Wake Forest 68 – a comfortable 13-point Tar Heels victory that covers the 10-point spread with room to spare. The Dean Dome crowd gets loud for ACC games, and Wake doesn’t have the firepower or defensive consistency to hang around. Give me Carolina and lay the points.
