The Washington Huskies travel to Bloomington for their first true road test in the Big Ten, facing a No. 20 Indiana Hoosiers squad that remains undefeated at home. With the Hoosiers ranking in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and why Indiana’s elite ball movement makes them the premier ATS pick for this Sunday night matchup.
The Setup: Washington at Indiana
Indiana’s laying 7.5 points at home against Washington in a Big Ten battle, and here’s the thing – this number feels light when you start digging into what collegebasketballdata.com is telling us about these two squads. The Hoosiers are sitting at #20 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +19.7, while Washington checks in at #69 with a +10.4 mark. That’s nearly a 10-point gap in the efficiency ratings, and we’re only getting 7.5 on the spread? Let me walk you through why this line is begging to be attacked, because the more I study this matchup, the more I see Indiana covering comfortably at Assembly Hall.
This is Washington’s first true road test in Big Ten play, and they’re walking into one of the tougher environments in the conference against a team that’s significantly better on both ends of the floor. The Huskies have been solid defensively – I’ll give them that – but their offensive limitations are about to get exposed against an Indiana defense that ranks #20 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.0.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Washington (6-3) at Indiana (7-2)
Date: January 4, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Spread: Indiana -7.5
Total: 151.5/152.5
Conference: Big Ten
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s why this line actually undersells what should happen tonight. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Indiana ranks #47 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.7, while Washington sits at #101 with a 111.7 mark. That’s a five-point gap per 100 possessions on offense alone. Flip it to defense, and the chasm widens – Indiana’s #20 at 97.0 defensive efficiency, Washington’s down at #51 with 101.2.
Do that math over a full game, and you’re looking at a double-digit efficiency advantage for the Hoosiers. The raw numbers back this up too. Indiana’s putting up 85.4 points per game (#64 nationally) while allowing just 66.3 (#49 in scoring defense). Washington’s at 82.4 PPG (#97) and giving up 73.9 (#201). That seven-point defensive gap is massive – it’s the difference between a lockdown unit and an average one.
The tempo factor works in Indiana’s favor here as well. Washington plays at a glacial 67.4 possessions per game (#222 nationally), while Indiana pushes it slightly more at 70.7 (#112). The Hoosiers want to play faster, and at home, they’ll dictate that pace. More possessions means Washington’s offensive inefficiencies get magnified, especially against this Indiana defense.
Washington’s Situation
The Huskies have one elite weapon in Hannes Steinbach, who’s averaging 18.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game – that rebounding mark ranks #2 nationally. He’s a legitimate double-double machine. Wesley Yates III adds 16.2 PPG, and they’ve got decent depth with four other players in double figures.
But here’s the problem: Washington’s shooting numbers are concerning. They’re #219 nationally in field goal percentage at 44.6% and #251 in effective field goal percentage at 50.4%. That’s not just poor shooting – it’s why they struggle to create separation in road games. Their 13.4 assists per game ranks #242, which tells you this isn’t a ball-movement offense. They’re relying on individual creation, and that’s a recipe for disaster against Indiana’s #28-ranked opponent field goal percentage defense (38.5%).
Defensively, Washington is solid but not spectacular. They rank #51 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’ve done a nice job protecting the rim with 4.3 blocks per game (#75). The concern is their perimeter defense – they’re allowing 33.8% from three (#237), which is below average. Indiana shoots 36.2% from deep (#88), so there’s an exploitable matchup here.
Indiana’s Situation
The Hoosiers are humming offensively, and the collegebasketballdata.com numbers tell the story. They rank #44 nationally in effective field goal percentage at 56.9% and #39 in true shooting percentage at 61.1%. That’s elite efficiency. They’re moving the ball beautifully – 19.3 assists per game ranks #14 nationally – and they’re taking care of it with just 9.8 turnovers per game (#25).
Tucker DeVries leads the way at 17.8 PPG, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. Lamar Wilkerson adds 16.0 PPG, and Tayton Conerway is the facilitator at 4.4 assists per game (#117 nationally). This isn’t a one-man show – it’s a cohesive offensive unit that ranks #47 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Defensively, Indiana’s been outstanding. That #20 adjusted defensive efficiency rating is legit, backed by holding opponents to 38.5% shooting (#28) and forcing turnovers at a high rate – they’re #29 in defensive rating at 93.9. They’re generating 159 points off turnovers this season compared to Washington’s 114, and that gap could be decisive tonight.
The one weakness? Offensive rebounding. Indiana ranks #343 in offensive rebound percentage at 25.7%, which could give Steinbach and Washington’s #81-ranked offensive rebounding unit some second-chance opportunities. But I keep coming back to those efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Washington can generate efficient offense against Indiana’s elite defense. The Hoosiers are holding teams to 38.5% shooting, and Washington’s already struggling at 44.6% overall. That four-point shooting differential, over 55-60 field goal attempts, is a 10-12 point swing right there.
The assist differential is staggering – Indiana’s averaging 19.3 APG (#14) versus Washington’s 13.4 (#242). That’s nearly six more assists per game, which translates to better shot quality and more efficient offense. Indiana’s true shooting percentage of 61.1% (#39) compared to Washington’s 55.6% (#191) quantifies that advantage perfectly.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Indiana’s ball security versus Washington’s inability to force turnovers. The Hoosiers are turning it over just 9.8 times per game (#25), while Washington’s generating only 6.6 steals per game (#240). Indiana’s going to take care of the ball, and Washington doesn’t have the defensive playmaking to disrupt them.
The pace battle favors Indiana as well. At home, they’ll push the tempo from 67.4 possessions (Washington’s preference) closer to 70-71. Those extra three possessions magnify Indiana’s efficiency advantages on both ends. In a game where Indiana’s roughly 5 points better per 100 possessions offensively and 4 points better defensively, more possessions equals a wider margin.
My Play
Indiana -7.5 (3 units)
I’ve considered Washington’s defensive capability and Steinbach’s dominance on the glass, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Indiana’s 10-point advantage in adjusted net efficiency should translate to a double-digit home win. I’m projecting Indiana 82, Washington 70 – a comfortable 12-point Hoosiers victory that clears this number.
The main risk here is if Steinbach goes nuclear on the offensive glass and Washington slows this to a rock fight under 65 possessions. But Indiana’s ball movement and shooting efficiency should create enough separation by the second half. At Assembly Hall, with a significant talent and efficiency advantage, the Hoosiers cover this spread in a game that’s never really in doubt after the first 10 minutes.
Lay the points with Indiana. This line should be closer to 9.5 or 10.
