Nebraska puts their undefeated 9-0 record on the line against a battle-tested Wisconsin squad. Bryan Bash dives into the CBD metrics to reveal why the efficiency numbers suggest the wrong team might be favored in Lincoln.
The Setup: Wisconsin at Nebraska
Wisconsin’s catching 1 to 1.5 points on the road at Nebraska, and I’m genuinely confused why this line isn’t flipped. The Huskers are 9-0, sure, but let me ask you this: what exactly have they beaten? Their best win is an 86-85 nail-biter against Kansas State at home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s out here dropping 96 on Marquette and 104 on Providence, playing the kind of offensive basketball that wins Big Ten games in December.
According to collegebasketballdata.com, Wisconsin’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #22 nationally at 119.9. That’s elite production, and they’re doing it while playing at a glacial pace. Nebraska’s undefeated record is creating line value here – the public sees 9-0 and assumes the Huskers are for real. But when you break down the efficiency metrics and schedule strength, this looks like a classic trap game where the better team is getting points because of optics, not substance.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-0)
Date: Tuesday, December 10, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE
Type: Big Ten Conference Game
Spread: Wisconsin +1.5 / Nebraska -1
Total: 143.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin +100 / Nebraska -120
The Efficiency Gap Everyone’s Ignoring
Here’s what the collegebasketballdata.com numbers tell us: Wisconsin’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 119.9 (#22) means they’re scoring roughly 1.20 points per possession against quality competition. Nebraska’s adjusted defensive rating sits at 98.5 (#32), which is solid – they’re holding teams below a point per possession. But here’s the critical piece: Nebraska’s adjusted offensive efficiency is just 114.2 (#71). They’re good defensively, but they’re not elite offensively, and that matters when you’re facing Wisconsin’s attack.
The Badgers are averaging 87.9 points per game (#36 nationally per collegebasketballdata.com) while playing at the 307th slowest pace in the country at just 64.4 possessions per game. Think about what that means: they’re scoring nearly 88 points in roughly 64 possessions. That’s exceptional efficiency. Nebraska plays faster at 71.2 possessions (#98), but they’re averaging 78.6 points per game (#92). Wisconsin scores more despite having seven fewer possessions per game. That efficiency edge is massive in a conference game.
The shooting matchup favors Wisconsin too. The Badgers are converting 80.1% from the free-throw line (#5 nationally), while Nebraska’s sitting at 71.5% (#184). In a game this close, that nine-percentage-point gap at the stripe could easily decide the outcome. Wisconsin’s also got a 54.2% effective field goal percentage (#109 per CBD), which shows they’re getting quality looks even in their methodical offense.
Wisconsin’s Offensive Firepower: Built for This Spot
John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are the real deal. Blackwell’s dropping 21.0 points per game (#15 nationally), and Boyd’s adding 20.2. That’s 41 points combined from your backcourt, and both guys can create their own shots in half-court sets. This isn’t a system that relies on transition or chaos – Wisconsin executes in structured offense, which is exactly how this game will be played.
Nolan Winter’s work on the glass matters here too. He’s grabbing 9.8 rebounds per game (#24 nationally), and those offensive boards create second chances against Nebraska’s defense. The Badgers’ turnover ratio of 0.2 (#66 per CBD.com) shows they value possessions and don’t beat themselves with careless mistakes. When you’re playing at 64 possessions per game, you can’t afford turnovers, and Wisconsin protects the ball.
The concern with Wisconsin is obvious: their defensive rating of 115.3 (#315) is bottom-tier, and they’re allowing opponents to shoot 43.8% from the field (#200). But here’s why I’m not worried – this game’s going to be played in the 60s possession-wise, which limits the number of times Nebraska can attack that weakness. And Nebraska’s offense isn’t explosive enough to capitalize on every opportunity against a weak defense.
Nebraska’s Perfect Record: Less Than Meets the Eye
Let’s put that 9-0 record in proper context. Nebraska’s beaten Winthrop, South Carolina Upstate, Mississippi Valley State, North Alabama, and Bethune-Cookman at home. Their best win is that one-point victory over Kansas State. This isn’t a murderer’s row – it’s a schedule designed to pad wins early. The Huskers’ adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.2 (#71 per collegebasketballdata.com) is respectable, but it’s not tested against elite defenses yet.
Nebraska’s defense is legitimately good – they’re holding opponents to 67.9 points per game (#72) and just 30.2% from three-point range (#87). Rienk Mast leads a balanced attack at 18.1 points per game, and they move the ball well with 18.4 assists (#31 nationally). But here’s the red flag: Nebraska’s offensive rebounding rate sits at just 24.2% (#353 per collegebasketballdata.com). They’re not generating second chances, which means when their initial shot doesn’t fall, that possession is over. Against Wisconsin’s deliberate pace, every empty possession hurts.
The free throw shooting is another concern. At 71.5%, Nebraska’s going to leave points at the line, and in a game projected to be decided by a possession or two, that’s costly. Wisconsin’s 80.1% conversion rate gives them a significant edge in crunch time.
The Matchup: Pace, Efficiency, and Half-Court Execution
This game will be played in Wisconsin’s preferred style – slow, methodical, half-court basketball. Expect around 67-68 possessions, which is closer to Wisconsin’s 64 than Nebraska’s 71. That pace favors the more efficient offense, and that’s Wisconsin by a comfortable margin according to CBD’s adjusted numbers.
The key battle is Wisconsin’s efficient offense against Nebraska’s stout defense. Something has to give when Wisconsin’s 54.2% effective field goal percentage meets Nebraska’s defense that holds opponents to 37.9% shooting (#21 nationally). I’m betting on Wisconsin’s veteran backcourt to solve the puzzle. Blackwell and Boyd have seen quality defenses before – they just beat Marquette by 17 on the road. Nebraska’s defense, while good, hasn’t faced an offense this sophisticated yet.
Wisconsin’s also accumulated 304 points in the paint through nine games, and Nebraska’s blocking just 2.3 shots per game (#317). The Huskers aren’t protecting the rim effectively, which means Wisconsin’s going to get good looks inside when the three-point shot isn’t falling. That versatility in offensive approach is crucial in grind-it-out Big Ten games.
The experience factor matters too. Wisconsin’s already played true road games at BYU and TCU – they lost both, but they know what hostile environments feel like. Nebraska’s biggest test at home was that one-point win over Kansas State. The Huskers haven’t seen this level of offensive execution in Pinnacle Bank Arena yet, and I think the moment catches up to them.
My Play: Taking the Points with the Better Team
I’m on Wisconsin +1.5 for 3 units, and I feel great about this one.
Nebraska’s undefeated, and that’s creating false value in the line. The public sees 9-0 and assumes the Huskers deserve to be favored. But the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency metrics tell a different story: Wisconsin’s the better offensive team by a significant margin (#22 vs #71), and offense wins in close games. The Badgers shoot free throws better, they take care of the ball better, and they’ve played a tougher schedule.
This line should be Wisconsin -2 or a pick’em at worst. Instead, we’re getting a point and a half with the more efficient team. That’s gift-wrapping value for us.
Wisconsin wins this outright 72-68, but even if Nebraska sneaks it out, I’m confident the Badgers keep it within a possession. The pace will be slow, possessions will be precious, and Wisconsin’s execution in half-court sets gives them every opportunity to control this game start to finish.
The risk? Nebraska’s home court matters, and that defensive rating is legitimate. If Wisconsin has an off shooting night and Nebraska gets hot from three, the Huskers can absolutely win this game by 5-7 points. But the efficiency numbers, the free-throw advantage, and the schedule strength all point to Wisconsin being undervalued here.
I’m laying 3 units on the Badgers plus the points. Nebraska’s about to get their Big Ten welcome, and Wisconsin’s the team delivering it.
