The Utah State Aggies look to maintain their dominance at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum as they host a struggling Wyoming Cowboys squad. In our latest CBB Picks, we analyze the 4-point adjusted efficiency gap and Utah State’s #16-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency (96.7) that anchors this Mountain West matchup.
The Setup: Wyoming at Utah State
Utah State’s laying 13.5 at home against Wyoming, and if you’re thinking this looks like a trap game for the Aggies, pump the brakes. This is a Mountain West clash where the efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about why this number sits where it does. Utah State checks in at 16.9 in adjusted net efficiency compared to Wyoming’s 13.3, per collegebasketballdata.com, but that three-and-a-half point gap in the metrics doesn’t fully capture what’s happening when you dig into the defensive profiles. The Aggies rank 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 96.7, while Wyoming sits 47th at 100.7. That’s real separation, and it matters even more when you consider Wyoming just limped into Logan having lost four of their last five, including getting boat-raced by Nevada 92-83. This spread isn’t inflated—it’s earned.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Wyoming at Utah State
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Records: Wyoming (7-2), Utah State (8-1)
Spread: Utah State -13.5 (DraftKings), -13 (Bovada)
Total: 151.5 (DraftKings), 150.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Utah State -1200, Wyoming +700
Why This Number Makes Sense
The market landed on 13 to 13.5 for a reason, and it starts with tempo and efficiency working in tandem. Utah State plays at a 68.4 pace (184th nationally), while Wyoming pushes slightly faster at 72.1 (62nd). Neither team is racing up and down the floor, which means possessions matter, and the team that executes better in the halfcourt wins comfortably. That’s Utah State by a country mile.
Look at the offensive efficiency: Utah State posts a 58.0 effective field goal percentage, ranking 28th nationally. Wyoming sits at 54.4, good for 98th. That four-percentage-point gap translates to roughly four to five points per 100 possessions, and when you’re playing in the mid-to-high 60s for total possessions, that’s the difference between covering and not covering. The Aggies shoot 50.7% from the field overall and 36.8% from three—both numbers that dwarf Wyoming’s 47.8% and 35.2% respectively.
But here’s where this gets interesting: Wyoming’s been solid defensively all season, ranking 65th in defensive rating at 98.3 and holding opponents to just 26.6% from three (11th nationally). So why the double-digit spread? Because Utah State’s defense is even better. The Aggies rank 28th in defensive rating at 93.1, and they generate 11.4 steals per game, third in the nation. They’re forcing turnovers and converting them—196 points off turnovers compared to Wyoming’s 137. That’s a 59-point differential over nine games, and it’s a massive edge in a game that’ll be played in the 140s possession-wise.
Wyoming Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Wyoming’s got some pieces, don’t get me wrong. Leland Walker leads the way at 14.9 points per game, ranking 306th nationally, and he’s got help from Khaden Bennett (10.9 PPG) and Nasir Meyer (10.8 PPG). That’s a balanced backcourt that can score, and Wyoming’s assist rate of 16.1 per game suggests they’re moving the ball reasonably well.
The Cowboys also crash the offensive glass effectively—34.5% offensive rebound rate ranks 73rd nationally—which gives them second-chance opportunities that could keep possessions alive against Utah State’s pressure. They’re also taking care of the ball, averaging just 11.8 turnovers per game (143rd), which means they’re not beating themselves with careless mistakes.
But here’s the problem: Wyoming can’t shoot free throws. They’re hitting just 66.8% from the charity stripe, ranking 302nd nationally. In a game where Utah State’s going to foul strategically and force Wyoming to earn points at the line, that’s a killer. And when you look at that 1-4 stretch in their last five games, the offensive efficiency has cratered. They scored 60 at Fresno State, 57 against San Diego State, and 65 against Boise State. That’s not going to cut it against an elite defense in a hostile environment.
Utah State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
MJ Collins Jr. is the best player on the floor, and it’s not close. He’s averaging 20.7 points per game, ranking 23rd nationally, and while he doesn’t stuff the stat sheet elsewhere (just 2.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists), he’s the engine that makes Utah State’s offense hum. Mason Falslev provides secondary scoring at 15.2 PPG (279th nationally), and Garry Clark controls the glass with 7.8 rebounds per game (100th nationally).
The Aggies’ ball movement is elite—18.7 assists per game ranks 28th nationally—and they’re converting at an absurd rate. That 61.2% true shooting percentage (34th nationally) tells you they’re getting quality looks and finishing them. They’re also turning defense into offense better than anyone Wyoming’s faced recently. Those 11.4 steals per game create 153 fast break points, and Wyoming’s not built to stop transition buckets.
The only concern? Utah State’s lost two of their last five, including an 86-76 loss to UNLV and an 84-74 loss at Grand Canyon. But both of those games came on the road or against quality opponents. At home in the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, this is a different animal. The Aggies just dismantled Boise State 93-68 in their last home game, and that’s the version of Utah State that shows up here.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two factors: Utah State’s ability to force turnovers and Wyoming’s inability to shoot free throws. The Aggies rank third nationally in steals, and they’re going to press Wyoming’s ballhandlers all night. Leland Walker, Khaden Bennett, and Nasir Meyer are solid players, but none of them are elite creators who can consistently break pressure. When Utah State forces Wyoming into tough shots late in the shot clock, the Cowboys are going to have to convert at the line—and they can’t.
The pace also favors Utah State. At 68.4 possessions per game, the Aggies control tempo and limit the number of possessions where variance can creep in. Wyoming needs chaos to keep this close—they need offensive rebounds, transition buckets, and Utah State to go cold from three. None of those things are likely in Logan.
The total sitting at 150.5 to 151.5 feels about right. Both teams rank in the top 90 in offensive rating, but Utah State’s defensive rating at 93.1 is going to keep Wyoming in the 60s. If Utah State hits 85-plus, which they’re capable of doing, this game sails over. But I’m more interested in the side than the total.
Bash’s Best Bet
Utah State -13 (Bovada)
I’m laying the points with Utah State, and I’m doing it with confidence. Wyoming’s 1-4 in their last five, they can’t shoot free throws, and they’re walking into one of the toughest home environments in the Mountain West against a team that ranks 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Aggies are going to force turnovers, convert them into transition buckets, and make Wyoming earn every point at the line—where the Cowboys are hitting just 66.8%.
The efficiency gap is real, the defensive advantage is real, and the home court matters. Utah State wins this game by 18-plus. Take the Aggies and don’t look back.
