Alabama Crimson Tide vs Arkansas Razorbacks Week 5 Pick

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2022 | cfb

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 4

Date/Time: Saturday October 1st, 2022. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Fayetteville, AR


Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ALA -15.5/ARK +15.5 (Did you know that you could be laying -105 odds instead of -110? Start betting smarter TODAY by making the wise switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook!)

Total: 62.5

The 2nd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will embark on their 2nd road trip of the season this Saturday when they go into Fayetteville for a showdown with the no. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The Crimson Tide were nearly upset in the first road trip of the season in Austin but came away with a 20-19 victory. Since that win, the Crimson Tide has compiled two straight victories by a combined score of 118-10 over UL Monroe and Vanderbilt. In the wake of those big victories, the Crimson Tide will be 15.5 point favorites when they roll into Fayetteville on Saturday.

The Razorbacks suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 23-21 defeat to no. 23 Texas A&M. The Aggies were in desperate need of a bounce-back performance, and Arkansas could only muster 21 points despite racking up 415 yards of total offense against the Aggies’ premier defense. However, it is the Razorbacks’ offense that could give the home team some appetizing value this week. The Razorbacks have played really well on the offensive side of the football, averaging 33.5 points per game against pretty solid competition. As 15.5-point underdogs, Arkansas could have some value if they can sustain that offensive success this week against the Alabama defense.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Before you jump on the Razorbacks and the points, let’s first discuss why the betting spread is over two touchdowns and what we should expect from a match-up perspective. First and foremost, the Razorbacks’ defense has not played well this season. Despite giving up 23 points to an anemic Texas A&M offense, the Razorbacks also gave up totals of 24 points to Cincinnati, 30 points to South Carolina, and another 27 points to Missouri State.

The main struggle for Arkansas’s defense has been defending the pass. The Razorbacks have been shredded for more than 300 yards per game through the air. Needless to say, that is a frightening statistic for a team that is about to go against the defending Heisman Trophy winner in QB Bryce Young who has tossed 13 touchdowns, with just two picks, already this season. Granted, Alabama does not have the elite homerun threats in the passing game that we witnessed last year with Jameson Williams and John Metchie III. However, the Crimson Tide still has a ton of talent in their receiving corps with an excellent quarterback at the helm to attack an inferior pass defense.

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Alabama has won 15 straight against Arkansas straight-up
  • Alabama has hit the “under”” in 5 of the last 6 games
  • Alabama is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games against SEC West opponents
  • Arkansas is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games as well.
  • Arkansas is 6-0 SU in the last six games at home
  • Arkansas has hit the “over” in four of the last six games against SEC West opponents

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Prediction

While this is not the all-world type of Alabama defense that we have seen throughout the Nick Saban era, I do like the Crimson Tide’s defensive match-up against Arkansas this week. The Razorbacks’ offense is centered around the running ability of QB KJ Jefferson and RB Raheim Sanders. Head Coach Nick Saban has been tremendous at strategic game planning against run-first quarterbacks in his career, and I expect this Alabama defense to focus on taking the run away. If the Alabama offense delivers, I believe they win comfortably.

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