Championship Weekend: Alabama vs Georgia
It’s Championship Weekend and the two biggest games on Saturday are Ohio St / Ind and Alabama / Georgia.
You GOTTA have some action on one if not both, it’s almost a sports betting sin not to.
And I’m talking mortal sin, not that secondary, lesser crime venial type (Catholics know the difference.)
I keep going back and forth on the Big Ten game but I’ve got an edge on the SEC contest and I’m sharing it here.
The Tide and the Dogs meet in a rematch of a game played in September that saw Alabama come out on top, 24-21. This puts Georgia in the spot of looking for Revenge, and what do I always say — “Revenge should not be part of your handicapping process.”
But I don’t always take my own advice, such as last week when I went for revenge against Vanderbilt. And lost.
This is one of those “gut feel” versus “my numbers” situations. My gut tells me to roll with the Tide getting points but my numbers tell me to go the other way and take the Bulldogs.
Breaking Down the Matchup
‘Bama has SU in nine of their last ten games against Georgia, NOT a fun fact if you’re backing the Bulldogs, and even more so when you’re laying points with them.
The Tide have won three straight in this matchup and ten of the last eleven. And even though it’s supposed to be a great rivalry, let’s face it — the games haven’t really been close. Only three of those eleven wins saw Georgia stay within a field goal on the final score.
A stat you’ll see a lot of while you’re researching this game points out that ‘Bama has won the last three times these two have met in the SEC Championship game.
But there’s a slight caveat to that — none of those three came with Kalen DeBoer as head coach; they were all Saban victories.
Another reason for picking ‘Bama you’ll hear a lot of is, “They’ve already proven they can beat Georgia, they won the game back in September 24-21.”
Well, Texas also beat Georgia in the regular season last year, doubling their score 30-15.
How did that work out for them in the SEC Championship game?
Georgia came out on top 22-19.
And in 2021, the last time these two met twice in one season, ‘Bama won in the regular season 41-24. When they met again in the National Championship game, Georgia dominated 33-18.
So yeah, as always, you can find reasons to play either side of a game. But that “Alabama has won 10 of the last 11 SU” stat means if you’re going against the Tide you’re putting a lot of faith in Reversion Towards the Mean.
Why I’m Rolling with Georgia
My primary model for picking Wrong Favorites, WF1, finished the regular season with a record of 25-41. That’s a very solid Fade at 62%.
WF1 says ‘Bama should be favored in this game.
I went through my charts to see if ‘Bama was in the play AGAINST spot, or if Georgia was in the play ON spot this season.
I found one sample.
Georgia was in the play ON spot back in week 11 when WF1 said Texas should be the Favorite.
The Bulldogs were laying four points.
They won 35-10.
Bulldog quarterback Gunner Stockton showed me a lot in their victory over Texas.
He’ll do what he always does — excel at game management, not make mistakes, and keep his team in the game.
If Georgia is going to win this one they need to improve in the three areas that killed them in the earlier meeting back in September: TOP, QB pressure on defense, and third down conversions.
Key Stats and Angles
The Tide had the edge on the game clock with a Time of Possession of 35:36 to Georgia’s 24:24.
The reason for that was clear — third downs.
Alabama converted on 13 of 19 for 59%.
Georgia was just 2 of 8, 20%.
But the main reason Georgia lost in the first game is they were unable to get pressure on Alabama quarterback Simpson. He dropped back to pass 42 times and they only got pressure on nine of those, and didn’t record a single QB sack. If the numbers are similar in this game, Georgia will lose again.
There is hope we’ll see the improvement needed though. Georgia’s halftime adjustments on defense saw Alabama score 0 points in the second half.
Yes, zero.
Has HC Kirby Smart (1-7 against Alabama) finally figured them out?
The Bulldogs have been playing much better defense to close out the season, with a marked increase in QB pressure and sacks in their last three games (just ask Archie, who they knocked to the ground three times.)
The Bottom Line
The game is basically a coin toss — it could go either way, not an enviable position when you’re laying points even if it’s only 2 or 2′.
My gut says buy it to +3 and Ride with the Tide.
But I like a quarterback who’s a Gunner, and a coach who’s Smart.
I can’t see late money coming in on Georgia so I’m going to wait to buy this game.
I’ll stop by the forum with my usual Saturday morning updates.
