Boise State Broncos (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. BYU Cougars (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date and Time: Friday October 25th, 2013 8pm EST
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo UT
TV: ESPN
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BSU. +7/BYU -7
Over/Under Total: 58
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BYU and Boise State are two teams exceptionally gifted with Knowing how to win. Both teams historically will fight to the end but Boiseeven at 5-2has some people wondering if the Boise character was left in the locker room in the away losses to Washington and Fresno State? BYU is also 5-2 after an opening loss to a pretty average Virginia 19-16, and losing two weeks later at home against a pretty good Utah team 20-13. Last week, ten-point Fav BYU needed a game-winning TD pass over Houston to squeak by the (other) Cougars 47-46 handing Houston their first loss of the season. Last weekend, Boise State tried a different strategy by spotting Nevada 17 first half points after 2-year starting QB Joe Southwick broke his ankle during the Broncs 1st possession. The Broncos came storming back in the 2nd half, though not covering, to win 34-17 as a 24 point Home Fav. Nevada is tough on the road losing their last five straight (joke)! Both teams will ramp it up Friday night and-for Bronco fans-Be prepared for OT! In Provo, it is BYOCBring Your Own Caffeine! (jus sayin).
Boise State has been a little disappointing in 2013. After getting hammered by Washington in their season opener, the Broncos dropped a close one to Fresno State 41-40. Fresno State is 6-0. It is highly unreasonable anyone covering the Mid-California Meth Plains football area that Fresno State is any better than Iowa State?! Still, Boise is putting up some offensive numbers in 2013; 18th in the nation in total offense, 39th in passing offense, 20th in rushing offense, and 18th in Red Zone offense. Looking a little closer into the statistics Boise revealsonce againthe Penalties Against quotient. What is the Penalties Against Quotient? Lets take a closer look at this seemingly disconnected statistical anomaly!
Penalties Against Quotient is the term I use to equate the number of penalties a team accumulates, on average, and the relationship to wins and losses. Pushing the Academies aside, there is a direct and measurable relationship between teams that are not penalized as often during a game and losing, and a team being penalized more often and winning! The quotient is counter-intuitive but nevertheless, is real and verifiable! I believe the amount of penalties equate to the amount of effort a given team displays each and every game; more effort + more penalties! The numbers do not lie. Okay, we have the groundwork laid. Lets take a look at the penalty numbers!
Boise is 9th in penalties per game. Get this: Of the teams ahead of Boise State, only one team, UNLV (4-3), has a winning record! The others, Tulsa, Navy, Army, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Boston College, and Florida Atlantic have a combined record of 15-33!! It appearsFollowing the rules and playing within the guidelines of Sportsman-like behavior does not pay-off with wins! Like it or not, pushing the Academies aside, it appears the problem with all of these teamsincluding Boise State, is a distinct lack of heart and determination with respect to playing hard. It is truly an incredible stat, but it appears if you arent being penalized >>> you arent trying hard enough >>> leading to losses! Among the 10 most penalized teams in the country, two teams are 5-1 (UCLA and Houston), one team is 5-2 (BYU!!), and one team is undefeated at 7-0 (Oregon). Only three of the bottom ten most penalized teams in the FBS have a losing record! This fact is virtually the flipside of the least penalized teams in FBS! It looks like Boise State is suffering from an Effort problem. Lets take a look at BYU.
BYU is a Straight-Up effort team. Love em or hate em, you will NEVER see a BYU team not gut-out each and every minute of each and every game! Being a seven point Home Fav is not an easy cover for the Cougars. Traditionally, these 2 teams have met three times since 2003 with Boise State winning all three games including last years Punter Trampoline Show in Boise 7-6. But BYU has covered in 2 of those 3 games and BYU is 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games in Provo. BYU is 14th in rushing yards in 2013. The rushing stat is appealing for our inquiry since Boise faced another Run-Happy team-The Washington Huskies-and got destroyed by the Huskies totaling 268 yards on the ground and a total of 592 offensive yards for the game. As an aside: It was Boise Head Coach Chris Petersons worst loss leading the Broncos. BYU can pass with triple threat QB extraordinaire Taysom Hill who keeps making play, after play, after play. There will be no letup from the Cougars in this game I can assure you. BYU also boasts a hungry defense and that spells trouble with a team that might have motivational problems!
Big News! Boise State starting QB Joe Southwick is out indefinitely with a broken ankle suffered in last weeks game with Nevada. Southwick was also the starting QB in 2012 throwing for over 2,700 yards. Through six games in 2013, Southwick had thrown for over 1,500 yards and 11 TDs. Southwicks loss to the Broncos is in his passing numbers and not in leadership. Boise State doesnt have leadership or the team unity in 2013; thats the point! The spread on this gamejust measuring the teams and their 2013 performanceis probably where it should be at 7.5. Considering the game is played at LaVell Edwards Stadium add another 3 points! Considering also, the amount of enthusiasm and team unity BYU plays with in 2013, add another 4 points >>> or get rid of two-three BYU turnovers. Boises problem(s) are much deeper than a hurt QB and this Friday Night, Boise State will be exposed for who they are: A team without purpose! BYU has plenty of film now on Southwicks replacement QB Grant HedrickHedrick played every snap but one (Southwick was injured during the very 1st snap for Boise) against a very bad Nevada team and struggled. BYU has much more class and plays WAYYYY over their heads in Provo. Factoring everything in, Boise State is a BIG underdog Fridaygive the points and enjoy a 10 point win!
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: BYU Cougars -7
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