Boise State vs Nevada ATS Spread Pick & Predictions

Boise State Broncos (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 9
Date/Time: Friday. October 24, 2025, at 10 PM EDT
Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Boise State Broncos come to Reno to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack on Friday in Mountain West action from Mackay Stadium. The 5-2 Broncos are still unbeaten in conference after a nice 56-31 home win over UNLV last Saturday. A week one loss to South Florida and a loss to Notre Dame a few weeks back are their only setbacks of the season. Nevada has been down this season, entering this with a rough 1-6 start. They came close on Saturday, but a 24-22 loss at New Mexico was their fifth in a row. They have been scrappy in a few of their recent games, losing narrowly as double-digit dogs and covering a few spreads. Maybe that resolve can help this week with a big number against the incoming Broncos.

Tough Home Spot for Nevada?

Nevada isn’t always the easiest place for opponents to play. The field and the knowledge that the opponent isn’t tip-top can have a deadening effect on incoming teams with a big spread to cover. Still, the home-field can’t be that valuable, as Nevada typically registers about one win a year at home in recent memory, with that team usually being a fair measure from the likes of the MWC perennial power Broncos. And since 1998, they’ve beaten the Broncos here just one time.

Other than that still-puzzling offensive stall-out against South Florida, and when they fell flat against Notre Dame on the road, the Boise State offense has been cruising along quite well. QB Maddux Madsen looked great last week against UNLV with four TD passes. Dylan Riley, bolstered by Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod, has this Broncos’ run-game controlling opponents in spots. And Chris Marshall, Ben Ford (questionable), and Latrell Caples lead a pass-catching crew where eight guys are triple-digits in receiving yards already. Boise, with some bigger plans perhaps dashed, are focused on taking care of business in conference, and Nevada will have their hands full and then some.

What Can Nevada Do This Week?

Again, other than the two slip-ups this season that Boise had, the point outputs have been high—in the forties and fifties. You take a look at Nevada and what they’ve been allowing in some games against their better opponents, and it doesn’t bode that well, with the 44 allowed to San Diego State a few weeks ago standing out. They’re below average as a whole, and they’re particularly vulnerable against a good rushing attack. On one hand, they’ve been reasonably stout in some spots, keeping teams like Sacramento State and conference rivals Fresno State and New Mexico from getting much done. But even against what has been a relatively weak schedule, the holes have shown, especially on defense. Still, they’ve covered two out of three, and there are some signs of promise.

One such positive sign is the play of Nevada quarterback Carter Jones, who seems to lend more life to this offense than his predecessor, Chubba Purdy, whose 1/8 TD-to-INT ratio was a bit much to withstand. The window has been small, but Jones has been more accurate, even if he lacks some of the rushing upside of Purdy. He still has this offense moving a little better. For those who have a hard time envisioning Nevada stopping Boise’s offense, they still have to escape Nevada covering the spread via this side of the ball. UNLV put up 31 against Boise last week, while New Mexico put up 25 the week before—not negligible amounts to be allowing when the team you pick needs to cover a jumbo-sized spread. This could be a part of the Boise team that has taken a distinct step backward this season, which gives a definite “in” for a home Nevada team seeing better results with a new look behind center.

Points to Consider for Nevada

There have been some down spots. And Jones’ first start against SDSU was a disaster. But we saw so much improvement last week, and now he’s in a no-pressure spot against a good team, and I’d expect him to be good. If you look at the points allowed by Nevada this season, it has been halfway respectable. And here they are getting better than three touchdowns in what could be a bit of a phone-in spot for the Broncos. It might not pay off to think this way, but surely the Broncos were putting more into last week’s game against an unbeaten UNLV team. Their next game after this is against a dangerous Fresno team. It’s not a given they show up to Reno shot out of a cannon.

Take the Number on Reno at Home

Even if you see the Wolf Pack’s case this week through rose-colored lenses, it’s not going to be much of a surprise for you to climb out of your haze late Saturday to see Boise laying it on thick against Nevada-Reno. QB Carter Jones offers hope to be sure, but the rest of that offense isn’t very good. Boise is several backs deep on personnel that could bowl over this Wolf Pack “D.” And if in the second half, they’re just breaking off big runs left and right, 22 points isn’t going to be enough. I just sense a less-than-totally urgent Boise team materializing on Friday, as Nevada ekes out the cover at home.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus 22 points.