Boise State Broncos (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, October 4th, 3:30 PM
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
TV: NBC
Point Spread: BOISE +21 / ND -21
Over/Under Total: 65
Two teams that began their seasons with preseason hype but a disappointing start meet on Saturday in South Bend when Notre Dame plays host to Boise State. For a late September matchup, the game has definite BCS playoff implications as the loser is likely out of consideration since the Broncos are already behind the eight ball in gaining the Group of 5 playoff spot with their loss to South Florida and the Irish early season woes against Miami and Texas A&M.
CARRFAX REPORT
As their defense continues to struggle statistically (97th in yards per game and 99th in points allowed), the Notre Dame offense has hit their stride, averaging over 50 points per game in their last three contests. Redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Carr has been leading the team on the field like an experienced veteran and is coming off his best performance thus far, throwing four touchdowns and over 350 yards, which is made that much more impressive when you consider it was just his fifth game ever at the collegiate level. He now stands with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions, none of which have come in the last ten quarters, and is ranked 2nd nationally in QBR. Boise State has been decent against the pass this season, ranking 42nd, but with their focus on stopping the Irish rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, it could easily lead to some open field opportunities for Carr and the Irish offense if they can continue to use play action and favorable downfield matchups to their advantage for top targets Malachi Fields, Jordan Faison and Eli Raridon.
THE PRICE OF LOVE
The attention of the Boise State defense will undoubtedly be on stopping the Notre Dame backfield duo of Love and Price, who have combined this season to score fifteen touchdowns in just four games between the two of them. It’s easy to see why Love is considered the top running back option in next year’s NFL Draft, though Price shouldn’t get lost too far behind in the shuffle as he continues to take advantage of his opportunities as the change of pace with his blazing speed. Both will be tested by a talented Bronco front seven that includes team sack leader Braxton Fely along with Jayden Virgin-Morgan, Marco Notarainni and tops in tackles, safety Ty Benefield.
IS EIGHT ENOUGH
After their dismantling of Arkansas last week, Notre Dame seems to have righted the ship in their quest to get back into playoff consideration. They have eight games left on the schedule, beginning with Boise on Saturday, and despite all of the remaining opponents being either from Power 5 schools (NC State, USC, BC, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Stanford) or one of the best of the Group of Five in Navy, none of them are currently ranked. When you combine the lack of great teams remaining with the already two losses, it leaves the Irish with a zero-level margin of error.
HORSING AROUND
Unfortunately for Boise State, they find themselves in a similar precarious situation as Notre Dame due to an early-season defeat. The Broncos entered the year in the Top 25 and were considered to have the best chance to make the playoffs of any Group of Five team, but after losing to South Florida, they are far behind in line for the lone spot available, with the aforementioned Bulls well ahead of them, along with Memphis, North Texas, and UNLV.
One of the biggest questions going into Saturday is how the multi-faceted Boise offense gameplans against the Irish defense, which, despite recent blowout wins against Purdue and Arkansas, still ranks 121st against the pass, 99th in points allowed, and 97th in total yards per game. The Broncos statistically have equal ability to attack both on the ground and through the air (they rank 20th in both offensively), with their running game particularly difficult to plan against with three viable backfield options available.
BRONCO CHASE
The Boise backfield of Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod have all done their fair share contributing to the Broncos’ offense, with each averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and having gotten into the endzone at least once on the season. Riley is the 1A leader of the pack, with more carries and twice as many touchdowns as the other two combined, but much like when Jadarian Price subs in for Jeremiyah Love, opposing defenses can ill afford to take the backups lightly or suffer the consequences. All three are undoubtedly in for a challenge this weekend, as the Irish defense hasn’t allowed a running back to get into the endzone in their last ten straight quarters of football.
MAD WORLD
Passing the way for the Broncos is Maddux Madsen, who has nine touchdown passes on the year compared to one interception while contributing an additional score on the ground. The aforementioned Notre Dame defense has struggled against the pass against quality competition, despite many considering their cornerback and safety group to be among the best in the country. Wide receiver Latrell Caples and tight end Matt Lauter are the best of Madsen’s targets and the only ones to have real success against both the good and bad teams that Boise has faced this year, as wideouts Ben Ford and Chris Marshall each may have double digit receptions and scores on the year, but both built up their stats in a blowout win against FCS punching bag Eastern Washington. To hang in there in a tough road matchup in South Bend, Madsen and the Boise offense will need more than two options in the passing game to emerge if they expect to trade points with the Irish in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair.
THE FINAL DECISION
Boise has done well of late when expected to, having gone 22-3 in their last 25 games as a favorite, but have been especially suspect from the other side of the spread under head coach Spencer Danielson, losing their last seven in a row straight up in games in which they were underdogs. They have also struggled when out of the friendly confines of Mountain West play, posting a non-conference record of 6-7 straight up in their last 13 non-MWC games and 6-12-1 mark in their last 19 against the spread.
As for Notre Dame, they have done especially well of late against unranked teams, posting a 21-1 record in their last 22 games against such opponents. The Irish have also covered the last 13 straight games that they won outright, and while I believe they will end up victorious on Saturday, I also believe their covering streak will come to end as a three-touchdown head start is too much to pass up for a talented Boise offense that should be able to consistently put enough points on the board to at least stay competitive within the spread.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Boise State +21
