Broncos Without Jeanty: When Mountain West Darlings Meet Group of 5 Reality
Count me as one of the folks who thought losing Ashton Jeanty might finally open a crack in Boise State’s armor. But after watching South Florida’s offensive tape from last year, I’m starting to think this line is missing the real story. The Bulls put up fireworks against some shaky defenses, sure—but Byrum Brown isn’t just a box-score quarterback. He’s a dual-threat who can punish the exact secondary issues that gave Boise fits last season.
And let’s not sugarcoat it: replacing 2,600 yards of Jeanty production with “we’ll see what happens” backs is a bold way to start your first post-Heisman run. The public will pile on Boise because of that playoff glow, but this feels like one of those sticky, humid August nights in Tampa where the script gets flipped.
| Game Information | |
|---|---|
| Matchup: | Boise State at South Florida |
| When: | 5:30 PM ET Thursday, August 28th, 2025 |
| Where: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Point spread: | Boise State -3.5/South Florida +3.5 |
| Money line: | Boise State -165/South Florida +140 |
| Total: | 58.5 |
| Conference implications: | Season opener momentum for both programs |
What Really Happened Last Season
Boise State’s magical playoff push was the headline, but look closer. Once defenses loaded up to stop Jeanty, quarterback Maddux Madsen suddenly looked a lot less comfortable. The Broncos scored 21 or fewer in half of their last six regular-season games—hardly the juggernaut people remember.
South Florida? Everyone remembers the wild five-overtime Hawaii Bowl, but the season was uneven at best. When Brown was healthy, this offense was explosive—he was one of only two guys (along with Jayden Daniels) to throw for 3,000 and run for 700-plus in 2023. Then the leg injury wrecked the rhythm. He missed eight games, and now we’re all holding our breath to see if he’s truly back.
The Bulls’ defense? A nightmare—118th in total defense. But they went transfer-portal shopping, and on paper, the upgrades look legit. The question is how quickly they can gel under Alex Golesh, because chemistry in a season opener is a very different animal.
Coaching Chess Match
This is where it gets fascinating. Spencer Danielson got the interim bump and rode Jeanty’s coattails into the playoff. That’s not a knock—it was a smart lean on a once-in-a-generation back. But now he’s got to prove he can win without that crutch. Boise is 0-0 in season openers under his watch, and let’s not forget—they’ve looked shaky in these big neutral-type games when they leave the blue turf.
Golesh, meanwhile, is in Year 3 at USF, and for the first time he’s got a fully healthy quarterback from day one. His background as an OC shows—this guy knows how to scheme around his best playmaker. With Brown, he finally has the piece to run the version of this offense he’s always wanted.
And here’s the kicker: Danielson has the weight of “don’t prove the playoff was a Jeanty fluke,” while Golesh has “don’t make us wonder if Year 3 is still a rebuild.” Both guys are walking into this one with different kinds of pressure.
Conference & Cultural Betting Angles
Boise’s no longer the underdog Mountain West darling—they’re the hunted now. That changes everything. Last year was house money. This year? The expectation is a repeat. That’s a whole different headspace.
For South Florida, this is the game they’ve circled. A national TV showcase, a ranked opponent, and a shot to announce themselves as legit AAC contenders. Add in the home-state crowd, the Florida humidity, and Boise’s cross-country trek? That’s an edge you can’t ignore.
In the Trenches
Here’s where it gets dicey for Boise. Without Jeanty, the run game turns into “good, not great.” Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley are capable, but they don’t scare anyone yet. South Florida built their D-line portal class with stopping the run in mind.
Then there’s the pass protection. Madsen was sacked 23 times last season with Jeanty drawing defenders into the box. Take that safety valve away, add a rowdy Florida crowd, and you’ve got trouble.
USF’s O-line, on the other hand, brings back four starters. That’s gold in a season opener. And if Brown buys time with his legs, this can turn into a track meet real fast.
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Key Players & Injuries
This game runs through Byrum Brown. If he’s truly 100 percent, he’s the best player on the field—and it’s not particularly close. Boise hasn’t seen this kind of dual-threat in their league slate.
For Boise, watch tight end Matt Lauter. With wideout depth thin, he’s the guy who can keep drives alive. If USF brackets him, the Broncos’ passing attack shrinks fast.
And of course, everyone’s watching Brown’s leg. Any hesitation, and the whole equation changes.
Market Read
The public money loves Boise because of last year’s playoff run. But the spread hanging at a field goal tells you sharps aren’t buying it. You don’t get a number like this unless oddsmakers respect what South Florida brings.
The total ticking upward makes sense—two offenses with fireworks. But don’t ignore the sharp under money trickling in. Season openers can be sloppy, and humidity has a way of sapping legs by the fourth quarter.
Kevin’s Multi-Angle Attack
To me, this line is begging you to take South Florida. Boise’s name brand and playoff hype are inflating the number, and that’s exactly the kind of spot I want to fade.
Top Pick: Give me South Florida +3.5. Sprinkle in some moneyline action if you’re feeling brave. And yes, I’ll dabble on the over, because even with some rust, both offenses have enough juice to stretch this past 60.
This has Group of 5 shootout written all over it—and in those games, you want points, pace, and the team carrying less baggage. South Florida checks every box.
