Bowling Green Falcons (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Wednesday, November 11, 2015, 8:00 pm EST
Where: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich.
TV: ESPN2, DirecTV 209
by Badger, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BGSU -3/WMU +3
Over/Under Total: OFF
Armed with a two-game lead in the Mid-American Conference (MAC) East division standings and with only three games to play, the Bowling Green Falcons will put their six-game winning streak on the line in some mid-week MAC-tion this Wednesday Night when they travel to Kalamazoo for a date against the MAC West-leading Western Michigan Broncos on ESPN2.
Bowling Green has quietly won all five of their conference games thus far and virtually have already wrapped up the MAC East title, not only putting themselves in the drivers seat but also lapping the competition in the East with last weeks thumping of Ohio in primetime last Wednesday, 62-24. Senior QB Matt Johnson continues to put up huge numbers in his final collegiate season, throwing for 365 yards and four TDs in the Falcons win over the Bobcats.
But this week will bring the toughest test yet for the Falcons since the early non-conference season, as the Broncos enter Wednesday nights game on a five-game win streak of their own. The Broncos lit up the scoreboard last week in their, 54-7, thrashing of Ball State with QB Zach Terrell tossing three TDs and 324 yards passing on just 16 completions in limited duty. The win set the table for the Broncos grinder of a schedule in the final three games of 2015, as they will face Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Toledo in the final three weeks of the regular season.
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This weeks battle of the top team in the MAC East against the top team in the MAC West opened with the East-leading Falcons as 3.5-point favorites on the road. The point spread has dropped to Bowling Green minus -3 at most sportsbooks already, as the early public money has come in on the Falcons so far. The over/under total for this game has yet to be released as of Monday night.
With four games from the MAC this week on ESPN on Tuesday and Wednesday, this is easily the game youll want to watch because it features two of the conferences best quarterbacks in Johnson and Terrell. Considered by many in the MAC as the best NFL prospect at QB in the league, Terrell has already thrown for 2,369 yards with a 70 percent completion percentage and 23 TDs to just six interceptions. During the Broncos win streak Terrell has excelled, throwing for 13 touchdowns and zero picks during the good stretch.
But those numbers pale in comparison to Johnson, who has thrown for nearly 3,700 yards already and owns an eye-popping 33-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio in 2015. The Falcons and Johnson throw more than any team in college football (average 430 ypg), and their 45.9 points per game average is the 4th highest point total in FBS too. Considering the Broncos defense and secondary has had troubles already this season stopping the pass (allow 269 ypg 108th), Wednesday night could be an incredibly long night for everyone with football flying every which way in Waldo Stadium.
Unless you are an alumni of one of these schools, you probably dont know that Western Michigan has been the Falcons biggest challenge in MAC play recently. The Broncos have beaten the Falcons in four straight meetings, including last years, 26-14, upset played in Bowling Green when the Broncos were ironically 3-point underdogs. The numbers dont change much at the betting window either, as Western Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, and they also own a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games against the Falcons played in Kalamazoo.
Badger’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a tough one for me. I watched Johnson throw the ball all over the field against Ohio last week and the Falcons looked like a tough team to beat. However, Western Michigan was my preseason pick to win the MAC this year. One thing is for sure, the defense that can make a few stops and get off the field a few times without giving up a score will win this game. Its just a toss up as to which defense that will be. Im hoping the Kalamazoo fans make a big difference in this one. Im taking Western Michigan as a home barking dog plus the points.
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