Wednesday, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Current line CMU -2.5, total 44. Bowl stakes, trench battle (BUFF run D vs CMU QB mobility), and subtle market moves set up our betting pick and total play inside.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Betting Odds & Line Movement
Wednesday night MAC action always separates the sharp money from the public noise, and this Buffalo-Central Michigan showdown is no different. The line opened at CMU -2 and has drifted to -2.5 across most shops, which tells me the public is backing the home team but the sharp money isn’t convinced. That half-point move might seem insignificant, but in a game with this low of a total, every half-point matters.
What’s interesting is the total movement — opened at 43.5, ticked up to 44 at some books. In a game featuring two teams that score about as consistently as a broken slot machine, that uptick suggests someone knows something about offensive potential we’re not seeing in the box scores.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Game Information
Date: Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Spread: Central Michigan -2.5
Total: 44
Moneyline: Buffalo +110, Central Michigan -130
This is a MAC divisional clash with bowl implications hanging in the balance. Both teams sit at 5-4, meaning this game could determine who gets that precious sixth win to secure postseason eligibility.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Recap: What Happened Last Week
Buffalo finally looked like the team we expected all season, dismantling Bowling Green 28-3 on the road. Ta’Quan Roberson managed the game efficiently (13-of-24, 136 yards), while Al-Jay Henderson bulldozed for 119 yards on 18 carries. Most importantly, they didn’t turn the ball over and controlled both lines of scrimmage.
Central Michigan, meanwhile, let one slip away at Western Michigan, falling 24-21 in a game they led for most of the second half. Joey Labas was efficient (8-of-11, 152 yards) but the Chippewas couldn’t establish their rushing attack when it mattered most. That loss stings because CMU dominated the statistical categories but couldn’t finish drives in the red zone.
The scoreboard showed Buffalo’s dominance, but dig deeper and you’ll see they’ve been inconsistent all season. Central Michigan’s loss was more about execution than talent — they moved the ball but couldn’t capitalize.
Conference Betting Context: Mid-American Dynamics
The MAC is always about the grind this time of year. Conference games tend to be lower-scoring, more physical affairs where the better defensive line usually wins. Travel isn’t as much of a factor in the MAC, but home field advantage is real when bowl eligibility is on the line.
Buffalo has been the better ATS team in conference play recently, but Central Michigan’s home dominance suggests the Chippewas know how to take care of business at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Both teams are desperate for this win, with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Matchup in the Trenches
Here’s where this game gets interesting. Buffalo allows just 3.6 yards per rush (27th nationally) and has been stout against the run all season. Central Michigan averages 4.3 yards per carry, which is solid but not spectacular. The Bulls’ run defense should neutralize CMU’s ground game.
On the flip side, Central Michigan’s pass defense has been vulnerable, allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo’s passing attack has been inconsistent, but Roberson has enough weapons in Victor Snow and Nik McMillan to exploit that weakness.
The red zone numbers tell the story — Buffalo allows just 73.7% red zone scoring (11th nationally), while Central Michigan converts at 81.5%. In a low-scoring game, red zone efficiency becomes paramount.
Key Players & Injury Updates for Buffalo vs Central Michigan
Buffalo’s Ta’Quan Roberson has been up and down all season (60.5% completion, 12 TDs, 8 INTs) but showed signs of life against Bowling Green. Al-Jay Henderson (73.7 yards per game) provides a consistent ground threat.
For Central Michigan, the dual-threat nature of Angel Flores (519 rushing yards, 8 TDs) gives them dimension Buffalo hasn’t seen much this season. Joey Labas has been the more consistent passer, completing 71.6% with a 4-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio.
Public Betting vs Sharp Action: Buffalo vs Central Michigan
The line movement from -2 to -2.5 suggests public money is on Central Michigan, but the total creeping up indicates sharp money might be on the over. That’s curious in a game featuring two teams that struggle to score consistently.
Buffalo’s recent ATS success on the road (5-2 in last 7) combined with Central Michigan’s home ATS dominance (6-0 in last 6) creates an interesting dynamic. The sharps seem split, which usually means value exists somewhere.
Buffalo vs Central Michigan Picks & Predictions by Kevin West
I’m backing Buffalo +2.5 in what should be an ugly, low-scoring MAC slugfest. The Bulls’ run defense travels well, and Buffalo has been playing disciplined football at the right time. Central Michigan’s home field advantage is real, but Buffalo getting points with a superior defense feels like the right side.
The UNDER 44 is my stronger play. Both teams rank outside the top 85 in offensive efficiency, and Buffalo’s defense has been legitimately good all season. In cold November weather with bowl implications on the line, expect both teams to play conservative, mistake-free football.
Secondary plays: Buffalo first half +1.5 and live under adjustments if this game goes over 21 points at halftime.
This feels like a 21-17 type game where the team that doesn’t turn the ball over wins. Buffalo’s recent road success and superior defensive metrics give them the edge, even in a hostile environment. Take the points and trust the under.
