California vs. Stanford Prediction: Can the Cardinal End Cal’s Four-Game Big Game Streak?

California Golden Bears (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
TV: ACC Network

The California Golden Bears make the short in-state trip on Saturday to take on the Stanford Cardinal in an ACC showdown. Cal had last week off, following a very nice 29-26 road win over Louisville, showing they’ve maybe found some footing in their new conference. The win moved them to 6-4 and emphatically reversed what had been a rough stretch of games, as they won straight-up as 18.5-point underdogs. Unfortunately for the Cardinal, there have been no such positive developments in what has been a tough season with a lot of issues to overcome. They also had last week off, but that followed a 20-15 road loss to North Carolina, where they were at least able to cover the spread.

Relief This Week for Stanford?

I’d be hesitant to relegate Stanford to the scrap heap for the purposes of this matchup, as the conditions aren’t too bad. They get this one at home, and after a season of facing teams with whom they have no real connection, they draw a familiar old conference rival in the Golden Bears. Known as the “Big Game,” this is one of the more iconic football rivalries on the West Coast, and it survives even with the dissolution of the Pac-12. This has been one of the more streaky series you could hope to see, where each team takes turns with long winning stretches over the other. As of now, Cal has won 4 straight and 5 out of six, which followed a 9-year win streak by Stanford from 2010-2018.

Either way, there is greater familiarity here and a traveling element more reminiscent of the Pac-12 days, with a Bay Area showdown between these closely situated teams. And maybe this late in the season, there’s something to be said for that. In their last games, Cal was in Kentucky and Stanford was in North Carolina. With this game, the importance of outside factors and conditions matters less, as one can focus more on the football side of things.

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How These Teams Stack up Offensively

It’s fair to say Cal is a little more-bankable on this side of the ball. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a major part of this unit, and much of the offense runs through him. He is over 2500 yards passing, leaning heavily on receiver Jacob De Jesus and TE Mason Mini. But there is also a balance with the run game, as Kendrick Raphael has 11 TDs on 695 yards rushing. Their balance and ability to push the ball downfield with a talented cast of pass-catchers would appear to pose a major challenge for the Stanford defense this week.

The most-promising road to success for the Cardinal this week might lie on offense, where they need QB Elijah Brown, who has replaced struggling starter Ben Gulbranson at the position, to make the most of the available talent on this sideline. Like Cal, they have a nice one-two receiver/tight end punch with CJ Williams and Sam Roush, with Micah Ford doing most of the damage on the ground. All told, they haven’t been terribly explosive, particularly on the ground. And mistakes and turnovers often stall promising-looking drives.

Cal’s Edge on Defense

It’s hard to call a Cal defense that has allowed less than 24 points just once this season good, but they have a way of making things look a little better. TJ Bush, Jr., at linebacker, and DB Hezekiah Masses are two of the more big-play defensive players in this conference. When watching their games, you will think that they are perhaps not very stout, but then you’ll get a big play, a key stop, or a turnover that really goes a long way. Conversely, Stanford can create some pressure in spots, but it is generally not a big-play group. On top of that, they are generally pretty leaky.

After watching Cal put up so much offense against Louisville, it’s not easy to picture Stanford coming up with the right answers on defense. And with such a lack of game-changing ability, the Cal offense might have some periods of unabated production from which Stanford can’t recover. Meanwhile, Stanford is dealing with some upheaval at the quarterback position, going against a defense that has some wind in their sails, along with the ability to take full advantage of the very mistakes that Stanford tends to make. Overall, there is an explosiveness differential between the two teams, favoring Cal. And not that they’re in any way infallible or couldn’t even potentially fall prey to the sort of more-proletariat foot soldiers of Stanford, but they’re simply the more attractive side to back.

Lay the Short Number on the Road Favorite

With their last three road games taking place in Kentucky, Virginia, and Massachusetts, I think Cal will happily endure the hour-long drive to Stanford. To get a week off following a really strong win as massive dogs on the road could have them ready to attack the final part of their regular season schedule with some gusto. Stanford has been historically better than they appears on paper in rivalry-type games, rising to the occasion in those types of spots. Also, before the big win over Louisville, Cal was in a funk, and who’s to say they don’t revert to that? It’s just with the field goal-sized spread, I think the move is to back the more upwardly-trending Golden Bears, who I see winning by more than three. I’m taking Cal.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the California Golden Bears minus 3 points.