RBD breaks down the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl betting angles, digging into line movement, systems, and proven bowl handicapping trends.
Wednesday, December 24th, 5:00 p.m. EST on ESPN
What do we have for tonight? (Using a bit of poetic license with the phrasing here.)
Just one game on the slate: Cal at Hawaii in the Sheraton Bowl. Let’s look at the data.
Records and ATS Stats
Cal Status:
7-5 Straight Up, 5-7 (41%) Against the Spread, 3-3 ATS on the road.
Hawaii Status:
8-4 Straight Up, 8-4 (67%) Against the Spread, 6-1 ATS at home.
Notice anything interesting there?
Line Shifts and the Flip-Flop Factor
Looking closer…
California started as a -1.5 favorite.
California is now a +1.5 underdog.
What is the historical play for a “Flip Flop Favorite,” where the opening dog becomes the favorite?
Last year, these teams went 4-3.
This season they are 3-2 (including the FCS game mentioned earlier).
That gives another advantage to Hawaii.
New Underdog Framework
Best of all: Hawaii fits the criteria for my new Underdog System. (Check my post from Dec 16th to see the full list of 16 qualifying teams.)
That system is currently 5-2 (72%) through seven games!
It entered the bowl season with a historical record of 32-9 (78%).
While the percentage is slightly lower this year, 72% is still excellent.
I previously listed all 16 teams. I also suggested avoiding the Memphis game, which ended up losing.
The framework needs to finish 8-8 at a minimum to stay even. Since we already have five wins, we only need three more wins out of the final nine games.
It is very likely this system will turn a profit once again.
Tonight, the numbers point toward the Rainbow Warriors.
Fading Teams After Losses
Here is an update on teams to avoid—those entering a bowl after two or more straight losses.
This specific “Fade” spot went 3-1 in 2023 and 5-3 last year, for a two-year total of 8-4 (67%).
So far, Missouri State, Memphis, Western Kentucky, and Southern Miss have qualified.
Because WK and Southern Miss played each other, we toss that out. However, betting against the others worked well, as the Bears, Tigers, and Golden Eagles all lost.
Remaining on the list: Georgia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Nebraska, Rice, Cincinnati, and Mississippi State.
If you are betting these teams, keep in mind they are in a significant 11-5 fade spot.
Handicapping Model Update
We have one game left that fits my oldest model, which grades bowl teams across seven categories.
In 18 years (covering roughly 700 games), only 14 teams have met the criteria of being better in every single category.
The record for this specific play is 9-5 (64%).
Two teams qualified this year.
Mississippi won, bringing the record to 10-5 (67%).
For those looking at the USC/TCU matchup, USC is the second team that meets this criteria.
Total Points Information
If you are looking at the Over/Under tonight:
I use three models for bowl totals. Tonight’s matchup qualifies as an “Under” in one of them.
That model is 2-2 in bowls so far, but a perfect 2-0 on “Under” picks.
The Pick
Hawaii +1.5 (Logged in the forum last week while they were still the dog).
