First up, a correction on my last article, the Weekly Recap (and no, that’s not me in the picture accompanying the article. I may be getting old, but I still have a full head of brown hair!)
In the article, I said:
“I’ve also got one of my models for totals on college games at 7-11, with a healthy 4-8, 67% Fade on the Unders.”
That record wasn’t one of my models for totals; it was one of my models for Wrong Favorites.
And the updated record is 8-16, and 5-11 when it’s a road team (I was looking at last week’s page in my logbook when I recorded the 7-11 numbers.)
Michigan and Utah State qualify as Fades for this week.
I have two Asterisk Plays for Saturday, and I’m buying them both.
Despite a push on this spot in Wednesday’s game (after Missouri State missed an extra point and a field goal in what should have been a win), the record for this play is 2-4, a 67% Fade, and right in line with the numbers from last year.
The supposedly Wrong Favs this week are ‘Bama and Kent State, which means I’m Fading Mizzou and Mass.
Kent State opened at -2′ and is down to -1′, waiting to buy that one.
‘ Bama opened at -5 as a Road Favorite at Missouri and has been bought down to -3.
I don’t expect it to drop to less than a FG, might even be a slight buy back, so I’m buying this one this morning.
‘Bama at Missouri is how I like to start my Saturday morning – watching a tough SEC matchup, with a bet on the game, and some strong stats combined with my gut feeling to back up my money.
There’s a four-way log jam at the top of the SEC standings with Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Missouri all sitting at 5-0.
Nipping at their heels are ‘Bama, Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee at 4-1. And Vandy at 5-1.
Who tagged Georgia with their first loss?
‘Bama.
Who tagged Vandy with their first loss?
‘Bama.
I expect they’ll do the same to the Tigers this weekend.
The difference in this game should come down to SOS, Strength of Schedule.
Bama’s faced the fourth toughest schedule in the FBS, while Missouri’s schedule is ranked at 78, having faced such “tough” competition (yes, that’s sarcasm) as Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Central Arkansas.
‘Bama is better prepared for this battle, having already faced teams like Georgia and Vanderbilt.
Though undefeated at 5-0 SU, the Tigers are 3-2 ATS against that weaker schedule, while the Tide are 4-1 ATS facing a tougher schedule.
Whenever someone tells me they are going against a team because of their weaker Strength of Schedule I always remind them that they can only face the teams that have been on their schedule thus far, SOS is something to factor in when you’re doing your handicapping but you need to decide how much weight to give it in each individual circumstance.
In this instance, the Tide vs the Tigers, I think it deserves to be weighed heavily.
Alabama lost its season opener to #25 Florida State, but since then, it’s reeled off four straight wins.
I expect Missouri to become victim number five.
I also bought one other play, based on the corrected stat I mentioned at the beginning of this article. For a little end-of-the-day action (12:00 a.m. EST) I’m going to take Hawaii at Hm, Fading Utah St in the 5-11 spot.
The Aggies are 0-2 SU on the Road, Hawaii is 3-1 SU and ATS at home. Based on those numbers, and with Utah State laying a point, this seems like a good spot for the Hm team.
I’ll have at least one more College play in the PredictEm forum.
See ya there.
Record: 9-11
