College Football Free Picks | Week 9
By RBD – Former Sportsbook Manager & College Football Betting Analyst
Houston at Arizona State
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State
College Football Free Picks
Below are not just my picks, but the thought process behind them, for those of you who are learning how to handicap.
Here’s how I utilize some of the handicapping models that I track to decide which games to eliminate and which to play.
The Asterisk Play
After going 2-0 last week, the Asterisk Fade in college football is now 4-5 on the season, slightly profitable at one game over .500.
The big question is which way is it going to go this week — back to winning or a continued reversion towards the mean?
I have two spots to choose from, a Fade on Northwestern (taking Nebraska) and a Fade on Missouri (taking Vanderbilt.)
Math, stats, and handicapping models aside, there are a few teams that over the course of a lifetime a bettor will come to like betting ON, or like betting AGAINST.
I don’t like betting ON Nebraska.
I don’t like betting AGAINST Missouri.
Further complicating the matter, I think Vandy is a fine team, but they’re playing a little over their heads and are due for a come down.
AND the Commodores have been in this spot once already this season as the team to play ON, and they didn’t cover.
Missouri was the WF2 play AGAINST team when they played ‘Bama. The game ended as a push when ‘Bama let them get a backdoor cover in the final minute of the game.
Northwestern hasn’t been in this spot before, but Nebraska has, as the team to play ON, and their record is 1-1.
Not sure if I’ll pull the trigger on either of these two spots due to conflicting stats and last week’s plays. Best to look elsewhere for this week’s buys.
WF1 and WF2 (Wrong Favorites)
WF1 is a mediocre Fade at 14-19 overall, but a strong Fade on Rd teams at 7-13, 65%.
K State, the Zips, Illinois, Ball State, Colorado State, and Houston all qualify this week.
How to pick one of the six?
Just as I detailed in last week’s article, I’ll look for a subcategory to aid in my decision.
WF2 also says Houston should be the Fav.
WF2 is 32-35.
And when I have a match, when both models have the same team qualify, the record is 1-4 when it’s a Rd team.
This places Arizona State on my list of possible buys.
The WF numbers above are league-based, encompassing all teams.
Looking for something a little more team specific, I checked my database to see if Houston qualified as a Fade team or if Arizona State qualified as the play ON team previous to this week. And I found a spot.
In week four, the Sun Devils were -2½ Favs over TCU.
WF2 said TCU should be the Favorite in the game.
Final score Az St 27, TCU 24.
Arizona State just advanced from my list of possible plays to my Buy It list.
Arizona State is 4-3 ATS, 3-1 ATS at Hm.
Houston is 5-2 ATS, 2-1 on the Rd.
T1 OV/UN
I made some Bank on T1 Overs last week because it had a record of 9-4 going into Saturday. But it’s now at 11-11 (a once profitable play waylaid by that “Reversion Towards the Mean” thing I’m always warning you about.) So I can’t use T1 Overs this week.
T1 Unders are sitting at 6-10, a 60% Fade, so maybe I can use an Over on some of those?
I have four to choose from: Utah St/New Mex, Mizzou/Vandy, Georgia South/Ark St, and Tenn/Kentucky.
Have any of those teams qualified for this spot this season?
I check my database and I see that Tennessee qualified as an Under last week, and it’s one of the six times this spot won this season.
So I eliminated the Tennessee/Kentucky game.
I also see that Georgia Southern qualified for an Under last week.
The total was 60 points.
They combined with Georgia State for 65.
So, in the spirit of sticking with what works, Georgia Southern/Ark State is added to my dance card.
Georgia Southern is 6-1 to the Over this season, 2-1 on the Rd. Ark State is 2-5, 1-2 at Hm.
The NP Spot
Coming in at 3-1 last week, I was hoping for a few NP Unders to play this week, but nothing qualifies.
And after a 0-3 week, the NP Over spot is now 3-9, a really good Fade but unfortunately nothing qualifies for that play either.
As always, I’ll ‘cap all the games again on Saturday morning and hopefully line moves will allow me to pick up one or two spots that qualify. Check the form for my Saturday morning update.
Buys:
- Az St -7, -113
- Geo Sou/Ark St Ov (wait to buy this; opened 61½, available at 60/60½ right now, WAN at 60½. Wait to see if it continues to go down, grab 60½ worst case.)
