Saturday All Day Action
Free Plays for Three Games (including the top matchup of the week, Texas at Georgia.)
I’ve been dipping my toes in the water for most of the season, playing conservatively, building my database.
After 10 weeks of ’capping college football here’s where I’m at:
Articles: 16-17 (including Mississippi Regular Season Wins)
Forum: 16-11
Combined: 32-28
My head’s above water — but barely.
With only a few games left on the schedule it’s time to open up my play and hope the numbers I’ve established over the first 10 weeks do not fall victim to RTM (Reversion Toward the Mean.)
Here’s what I’m working with this week, taken from my handicapping models for picking Wrong Favorites and Over/Unders:
WF1 is 11-21 on Road games — that gives me a 65% Fade to work with.
T1: 34-35, no value. But on the Over it’s 23-16, a 61% play ON.
T2 is 7-12 on Overs, a 63% Fade.
T2 is 14-8 on Unders, a 63% play ON.
And, as has been the case for the last five years, the NP Under spot is profitable again at 9-5, a 64% play ON.
At the top of the list is NP Overs at 3-10, a 77% Fade. But I have five years’ worth of data that says this spot consistently comes in around 50%, so I’m leery of using these as I expect RTM to level the scales over the final games of the season.
Play Number One: Arkansas at LSU
My first pick is LSU.
WF1 says Arkansas should be the Favorite in this one.
WF1 is 11-21 (35%) on Road teams — like the Razorbacks this week.
First stop in my handicapping process — check to see if Arkansas has been in this spot before.
Week 3, WF1 said Ark should be the Favorite over Mississippi.
The Rebels were -3. They won by six.
So I have a league-wide stat, 11-21, for all teams — that’s a 65% Fade.
And team-specific, Ark is 0-1 in this spot.
Ark is 1-2 ATS on the Road.
LSU is 2-3 ATS at Home.
Arkansas has lost seven straight games, so it’s not unreasonable to expect a little quit in them at this point in the season.
LSU has lost four of their last five — BUT two of them were against Top Five teams (‘Bama and Tex A&M) and the other three came against Top 20 opponents.
The Razorbacks have nothing to play for other than pride.
The Tigers are playing for bowl positioning.
Yeah, gimme the Tigers.
Opened LSU -6½, down to -5½.
Wait to buy.
Play Number Two: Marshall at Georgia State
This is the only game that qualifies as an NP Under this week.
I’ll look at other stats, but it doesn’t matter — these are an automatic buy for me.
I check my database and see that Georgia State has not been in an NP Under spot this year.
Marshall was, in Week 7.
Tex St/Marsh had a total of 66½.
In my log book the game has a green check mark next to it, signifying the play was a winner.
They combined for 77 points.
Why is the Under marked as a winner with a total of 66½ on a game that landed on 77?
Because they scored 23 points in two overtime periods. At the end of regulation they were at 54, a comfortable double-digit winner on the posted number.
(I don’t handicap for OT. If a game stays Under in regulation, the Under is marked as a winner. Similarly, if I have an Over that ends in regulation as an Under but goes Over in OT, the Over gets a red check mark next to it, marking it as a loser.)
All three of Marshall’s Road games this season have gone Over — but one was the OT game I mentioned above.
Geo State is 3-3 Ov/Un at home this season.
Both of these teams have been in high-scoring games recently — higher than the number posted on this one — but I abandoned the NP Under earlier this season and missed out on a couple wins.
I’m not making that mistake again.
I’ll ride this spot EVERY time I can over these final three weeks.
Plus, I have this:
Marsh/Geo State is the only game that qualifies for my T2 Under spot this week.
The record on these is 14-8, 63%.
Yeah, standard stats be damned, I’m riding with my models on this one.
Opened at 63½.
I see a couple of houses at 64, but 63½ is still the WAN (Widely Available Number.)
I think it opened too low, but I don’t expect it to go higher.
I’ll wait and watch though — just in case.
Play Number Three: Texas at Georgia
‘Bama/Oklahoma fans might disagree, but Tex/Geo is the key matchup of the week — the only game featuring two Top 10 teams facing each other.
So you HAVE to have action on it, right?
Wrong.
Just because you want to watch a game on TV doesn’t mean you have to bet it — especially if your bank account for the season is in the red, or if your head’s just above water (like me.)
Fortunately, this isn’t just a call for action for me — I don’t have to bet it just because I want a rooting interest while I watch it.
WF1 says Texas should be the Favorite.
See Play Number One above for the WF1 record.
Okay, for those of you who can’t be bothered to scroll to the top (lazy bastards), here it is again:
11-21, 35%.
In other words, a 65% Fade.
The spread’s a little bit high but it’s been a couple of weeks since we’ve heard complaints about the Legacy not living up to the hype, and the play of his famous uncles.
A key INT could change that this weekend.
The Bulldogs opened at -6½ but a few houses have already dropped to -6.
I expect Manning Money to get this one to -6 across the board by game time.
And I expect Archie to look more like Jughead before the day is done (dated AND corny reference there).
So there you are — three games, early, midday, and late — providing you with some action and fun throughout the day.
I’ve already posted two games in the forum for this week, including an early buy notice for a Saturday game. Be sure to stop by and check it out.
I’ll also post my usual Saturday Morning Update, including the lines I end up buying on the three games noted here, updates on any NP spots that come off the board or are added, and any other games I end up buying.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 16-17
Review: Belichick screwed me like I was a 21-year-old cheerleader (most of you will get that reference, yes?)
