RBD, former sportsbook manager, digs into bowl betting trends and line movement to uncover a sharp prediction in the Liberty Bowl featuring Cincinnati vs Navy.
Cincinnati/Navy Prediction
From a recent article on Bowl strategies:
“Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two SU losses in the regular season.
It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-2 last year, making the two-year total 8-3, 71%. (Corrected numbers.)”
This season, coming into the Bowls, I see a whopping TEN teams that qualify, including Cincinnati who has lost FOUR straight ATS.
Looking over my charts from the last two seasons, I only see two teams that entered a bowl game off of more than three losses:
Pittsburgh last year, and Minnesota the year before.
The Gophers (it is Gophers, right?) lost 4 straight ATS and were -4′ Favs over Bowling Green.
They won 30-24.
The Pirates, Penguins, Steelers, whatever the hell they’re called (F me and my getting-old-brain. I can’t believe I have to scan my memory trying to remember what the hell the name of these teams are*) lost five straight and were -9 against Toledo.
They lost SU 46-48.
Cincinnati opened around -3 and is now a Dog at +4.
Which gives me more handicapping homework:
In the 8-3 record I noted above, how many times was the team a Dog, and what’s their record? (The answer is below.)
Another homework assignment would be “What’s the record of Bowl teams that went from being the Favorite to the Dog?” but I already have that one charted and posted in an article here, so no work involved.
“Going into the 2024 Bowls I had the newly crowned Fav hitting better than 70% over the last few seasons.
Last year they went 4-3, not as high a W percentage as it has been recently but still a profitable play.”
For the bet AGAINST teams, the teams that lost at least two straight going into their Bowl game, the record as a Fav was 3-6; Dogs 0-2.
Summary:
Betting ON the new Fav is a profitable spot.
Betting AGAINST teams that lost at least two straight in the regular season going into their bowl is a profitable spot.
When the play AGAINST team is a Dog, like the Huggy Bears are here, the Fade is a perfect 2-0.
Looks like a play AGAINST Cincinnati and ON Navy.
And if you’re betting ON the Midshipmen (Hah! I didn’t have to look that one up) what’s the first thing you do?
You check to see how their opponent does when they’re facing the run game (Navy, as usual, sits atop the rankings at #1, with 281.8 YPG.)
So I looked into Cincinnati’s defense against the run.
I didn’t see them in the top 10, but didn’t expect to.
Didn’t see them in the top 25.
Top 50? Nope.
Top 75? Uh-uh.
Certainly they must be in the top 100, I mean there’s only about 130 FBS teams.
I better go back and start from the top.
Nope, they’re NOT in the top 100.
They’re currently ranked at 103, giving up 182 YPG.
Yeah, I’m buying Navy.
They’ll DOMINATE time of possession.
And hopefully, on the scoreboard too.
Crazy line. I see anywhere from -3 to -4′.
It’s easily found at -4 for anyone who likes the reason listed here. So that’s what I’ll use.
My buy: Navy -4
* Yes, of course I could just check Google but don’t you ever get tired of being a slave to the search engine?
