College Football Pick | Central Michigan at Western Michigan

By RBD – Former Sportsbook Manager & College Football Betting Analyst

Saturday, November 1 at 10:00 a.m. EST

Poor Little Chippewas!

A few weeks ago I was in Laughlin, Nevada for a couple of days.
Weird little place, odd inhabitants, isolated town in the middle of nowhere (Festival of the Inbreeds?) with a lot of tattooed people (and not your standard biceps and tramp stamps — I’m talking face and neck tats.)
But, Children of the Corn vibes aside, I had fun while I was there.
Especially one Saturday morning in the sportsbook at the Tropicana.

This story won’t sound as funny in telling it as it was when I was in the sportsbook — it’s one of those “You had to be there” kind of things.
But it had me laughing out loud. Repeatedly.

I was hanging out watching the Saturday morning football games. Seated next to me were four guys from Michigan.
One of them bet a dime on the Central Michigan Chippewas. He laid -7½ and they were getting beat by the lowly Akron Zips.
Central Michigan was down 14-10 at halftime and 28-13 at the end of the third quarter.
Laying seven.

Needless to say, the guy who put out $1,100 to win $1,000 was not in a very chipper mood about his Chippewas.
And here’s why it was funny.

Every time the Chippewas screwed up — had a penalty called on them, had a pass fall incomplete, fumbled the ball, or gave up another score — one of the three guys got up out of their chair, hovered over the Chippewa bettor, and wrung their eyes pretending to cry while calling out, “Awww, Poor Little Chippewas.”
And the more they did it, the more pissed off their buddy became.
Which, of course, made them do it even more.
Which, of course, had me laughing even harder.

Since that day, every time I’m doing my weekly college handicapping and I see Central Michigan, I relive the scene in my mind and can’t help but laugh again thinking about those three guys happily tormenting their friend. It makes me want to bet against Central Michigan and root for them to screw up so I can say to my TV, “Awww, Poor Little Chippewas!”

But “Fondly Reliving Past Moments” isn’t one of the handicapping models I use when deciding where to place my money, so I resist the urge.
Until now.

Because . . .

The Handicapping Angle

My handicapping model WF2 says the Western Michigan Broncos are the Wrong Favorite.
It says the Chippewas should be laying the points.
WF2 has a record of 34-38 on road teams — a slightly profitable Fade by the slimmest of margins.

BUT . . .
It also qualifies as an Asterisk Play.
This spot has a record of 4-6 on college road teams.
Yes, it’s only a 10-game sample, but it’s a 60% Fade. And it was 9-20 on road teams last season.

I have other stats — standard stuff — to back up the play:

• The Chippewas are just 2-3 ATS on the road.
• The Broncos are a perfect 4-0 ATS at home.
• The Chippewas have lost straight up in 13 of their last 15 road games.
• The Broncos have covered the spread as home favorites in nine straight games.
• The Broncos allow just 18.8 PPG — 24th best in the country. (When you’re a MAC team and you’re in the top 25 in ANY category in the FBS, it’s a big deal.)
• The Broncos have won seven of the last ten meetings head-to-head against the Chippewas.

Etc., etc.

But all that’s irrelevant.
I’m betting ON Western Michigan because I’ve patiently waited for a chance to bet AGAINST Central Michigan, just so I can spend a Saturday afternoon saying, “Awww, Poor Little Chippewas” to my TV.
(That, plus it’s an Asterisk Play.)

When to Buy Recommendation

The line opened at WM -6.
It dropped to -5½.
It dropped to -5.
It dropped to -4½, and that’s pretty much the common number today.
There’s not much difference between -4½ and -5 as games rarely land on a 5-point differential.

I may as well wait to buy this one and see if I can shake that hook off.
I expect late money to come on Western Michigan, so I’ll keep a close eye on the line and if I see -5 start to show up again, I’ll grab the 4 and a hook before they’re gone.

Western Michigan is just 4-4, so this game has huge postseason implications.
If they lose, their chances of getting a bowl invitation are slim. That makes this a very important game for the Broncos, and I’m riding with them.
And hoping that come late afternoon on Saturday, when the final score is in, I’m not kicked back on the couch, saying, “Poor Little RBD.”

My Play:

Western Michigan (wait to buy)