Each week, we eyeball the opening line in comparison to the current odds
and follow all the major college football line movement
and decipher whether it’s coming from public money or sharp action, syndicate betting and/or wiseguy plays.
In cases where we feel there is value, we’ll recommend a play on the move and keep a record of how that does here. We’ll be selective and “pick and choose our spots” and it’s very likely that these plays will be a profitable proposition long term.
We’ll watch the moves throughout the week but only post our takes on these moves on Friday afternoon so we can hold out as long as possible to get the most information possible.
While we would never recommend playing a game blindly by coattailing a line move, there is however great value to this information if you know how to harness it. We’ll be making our best attempt to do just that. Who knows, maybe we snag into 62 or 63% with this play? 🙂 Good luck to us! (Plays posted each week by Friday afternoon).
Week 14: (12/1 through 12/2) The TCU Horned Frogs opened up as +7.5 underdogs to Oklahoma. The line has moved down to +7 despite only 34% backing Texas Christian. Georgia Southern opened as a pick vs. Appalachian St. and has moved up to -2 after news broke of App. State’s QB being doubtful. Kilton Anderson will start. Anderson has a 43.5% completion percentage in 92 tosses this season! The South Bama/NMST total opened at 55. The number has dropped to 53 despite only 40% playing the UNDER. Miami/Clemson opened up with a total of 48. The number has since been bet down to 46 despie only 32% siding with the points to go UNDER the total.
Week 14 NCAAF Line Moves: TCU +7 (lost 17-41), Ga. Southern -2 (lost 17-28), South Bama/New Mex. St. UNDER 53.5 (won 17-22), Mia/Clem UNDER 46 (winner 3-38).
Week 13: (11/21 through 11/25) Passed.
Week 12: (11/14 through 11/18) The Rutgers/Indiana total opened up at 50.5 and has bet down to 48 despite only 42% betting on the UNDER. The Pitt/Va. Tech game total opened at 50.5 and has been bet down to 49 despite a meager 36% betting the under.
Week 12 College Football Line Move Plays: Rutgers/Indiana UNDER 48 (won 0-41) and Pitt/Va. Tech UNDER 49 (won 14-20).
Week 11: (11/7 through 11/11) The Oklahoma State /Iowa State total opened at 61.5. The line has bumped down to 61 despite only 31% betting on the under.
Week 11 College Football Line Move Plays: Oklahoma State/Iowa State UNDER 61 (lost 49-42)
Week 10: (10/31 through 11/4) No plays qualified this week.
Week 9: (10/24 through 10/31) The NC State Wolfpack opened as +8.5 underdogs to Notre Dame. The line has since dropped to +7 despite most betting ND.
Week 9 CFB line move plays: NC State +7 (lost 14-35).
Week 8: (10/18 through 10/21) The Colorado Buffs opened as +10 road dogs at Wash. St. The line has dropped to +9.5 despite only 38% backing Colorado. Southern Miss opened as +3.5 road dogs at Louisiana Tech. the line hss dropped to +3 despite only 32% backing S. Miss.
Week 8 College Football Line Move Plays: Colorado +9.5 (lost 0-28). Southern Miss +3 (won 17-10).
Week 7: (10/11 through 10/14) The USC Trojans opened as -12.5 home favorites vs. Utah. The line as since gone up to -13 despite only 36% backing the Trojans. The Kent St. Golden Flashes opened up as +10. home underdogs to Miami-Ohio. The line has since dropped to +9 despite only 32% backing them.
Week 7 College Football Line Move Plays: USC -13 (lost 28-27), Kent State +9 (won 17-14).
Week 6: (10/5 through 10/7) The SMU Mustangs opened up as +8.5 road dogs at Houston. The line has been bet down to +7 despite only 41% backing Southern Methodist.
Week 6 College Football Line Move Picks; SMU +7 (lost 22-35).
Week 5: (9/28 through 9/30) The Northern Illinois Huskies hit some books as high as a +13.5 road dog at San Diego State. That line has dropped to as low as -10 on some boards moving against the 61% of the public money on SD State.
Week 5 CFB Line Move Plays: Northern Illinois +11 (covered 28-34).
Week 4: (9/21 through 9/23) The Air Force Falcons opened up as +4.5 home underdogs to the San Diego State Aztecs. The line has since dropped down to +3 despite receiving only 39% of the action at the windows.
Week 4 CFB Line Move Plays: Air Force Falcons +3 (lost 24-28).
Week 3: (9/14 through 9/16) The Pitt Panthers opened up as +13.5 home underdogs to Oklahoma State. The line has since dropped to +13 despite a meager 28% betting on Pitt. The Middle Tennesee State/Minnesota total opened up at 55.5 and has since been bet down to 51.5 despite only 43% betting the under.
Week 3 College Football Line Move Plays: Pitt Panthers +13 (lost 21-59), Middle Tenn. St./Minnesota UNDER 51.5 (won 34-3).
Week 2: (9/7 through 9/9) The Penn St. Nittany Lions opened up as 17 point home favs vs. the Pitt Panthers. The line has moved 4 points up to -21 despite only 50% betting on PSU. Northwestern opened at a pick’em on the road at Duke. The line has swayed 2 points making NW the favorite despite only 50% betting on the Wildcats. Washington State opened up as -7.5 home favs vs. Boise St. The line has gone up to -10. WSU is much improved and BSU has taken a step backwards. This game could potentially be a blowout.
Week 2 College Football Line Move Plays: Penn St -21 (lost 33-14), Northwestern -2 (lost 17-41), Washington St. -10 (lost 47-44).
Week 1: (8/26) No plays qualified this week.
