From my article about the opening week of college football season:
“If I’m going into another Battle with the Books again this season, then this is the hill I choose to live or die on – the NP Under spot.”
The reason I chose that hill is because of the five-year record for the play, 132-79 (62%).
And now add two more wins as 2025 got off to a 2-0 start.
After doing my midweek ‘capping, there were three plays that qualified and were noted in my article.
Due to line changes, two of them no longer qualified by Saturday morning.
REMEMBER — always check the PredictEm forum for updates.
The Penn State and UCLA games count on my record because I bought them and included them as plays in my article, but they don’t count for the record on NP Under plays.
Sam Houston/UNLV did not fit the qualifying parameters midweek, but due to line changes, it became an added play on Saturday,
and was noted in the PredictEm Forum as a recommended buy.
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The two games that came off the board split — one stayed Under, one went Over.
Both qualifying games won.
I also hit with the first recommended play I made earlier this summer — Ole Miss.
“I never fear laying the big wood with the Kiff.
He may not always cover the number, but I know he’s sure as hell going to try.
Lane does not know the meaning of the phrase, ‘Take a knee.’
Lane loves to run up the score.
Lane does not consider the other team’s feelings and has no problem embarrassing them and their head coach in a blowout.
And Lane LOVES to face patsies in week one to build his team’s confidence before entering into their SEC schedule.
He won his last two season openers by a combined score of 149-7.”
I laid -36.5 with Kiffin and the Rebs last week.
Final score? 63-7.
In Lane We Trust.
The NP Over spot was also perfect at 0-3, a perfect Fade.
The Over usually comes in at around .500 — no value in playing ON or AGAINST, but I’ll keep my eye on it.
Maybe it will have value as Fade material this season.
I’ll certainly be taking a hard look at the very first game on the schedule that qualifies this week, to see if the losing continues.
Week 2 Qualifying NP Spots
- Liberty vs Jacksonville State — Over
- Baylor vs SMU — Under
- Western Kentucky vs Toledo — Under
I’m not sure which way these lines will go, and both of the Unders have already dropped by half a point or a full point, so I’m buying them now.
I’ll wait to make a decision on whether I want to Fade the Over on Liberty/Jax State.
Baylor/SMU Under 65.5
Western Kentucky/Toledo Under 58.5
Record: 4-2
