Featured Matchups
- Clemson at North Carolina
- Western Michigan at Massachusetts
- Minnesota at Ohio State
- New Mexico at San Jose State
“What’s the sense in putting in hours of handicapping work each week if you’re not going to use the numbers your data tells you to use?”
That’s the thought on my mind as we enter Week Five of college football. With four weeks of data now accumulated, it’s time to lean on the models and hope that Reversion to the Mean doesn’t kick in.
For college, I’m handicapping:
- WF1 and WF2: Wrong Favorites models (sides)
- NP, T1, T2: Totals models
Model Performance So Far
- WF1: 7-11 (Home: 3-3, Road: 4-8)
No edges to play ON, but a strong 67% Fade on WF1 Road teams (sample size 10+).
- WF2: 25-26 (Home: 3-3, Road: 22-23)
- T1: 7-4 (Overs 3-1, Unders 4-3)
Possible play on T1 Overs, but no qualifiers this week.
- T2: 8-11 (Overs 3-5, Unders 5-6)
- NP: 3-6 (Overs 1-4, Unders 2-2)
Earlier this week, I had two games qualify for NP Unders—my strongest model over the past five years. But:
- Michigan State vs Nebraska – No longer qualifies due to line movement.
- Illinois vs Purdue – Still hanging on, but if the WAN drops to 55.5 or lower, it will also be off the board.
If that happens, it’ll be the third straight week without my best play to lean on.
However, I do have four NP Overs to fade. Small sample size (1-4), but over the past five years, Overs in this model have only been profitable once—and that was barely. History suggests the odds say this play will finish at least 2-2 worst case, so I’m buying all four and aiming for 50/50 or better.
Here’s a snapshot of the three spots for Saturday.
Clemson at North Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. EST
Line: 47
- Clemson average score per game: 42
- North Carolina average score per game: 43
- Clemson O/U record: 1-3
- North Carolina O/U record: 1-3
- Last year’s score: Did not play
- Clemson’s road offense: 21 PPG
- North Carolina’s home offense: 27 PPG (skewed by 41 vs FCS)
Line opened at 45.5, now up to 47. Since it’s moving in my favor, I’ll wait to buy it (final number posted in PredictEm forum).
Western Michigan at Massachusetts
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. EST
Line: 46.5
- Western Michigan average score per game: 43
- Massachusetts average score per game: 51
- Western Michigan O/U record: 2-3
- Massachusetts O/U record: 3-1
- Last year’s score: Did not play
- Western Michigan road offense: 3 PPG
- Massachusetts home offense: 18 PPG (skewed by 26 vs FCS)
Line opened at 48.5, now down to 46.5. Buying now before it drops further.
Minnesota at Ohio State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EST
Line: 44.5
- Minnesota average score per game: 50
- Ohio State average score per game: 42
- Minnesota O/U record: 2-2
- Ohio State O/U record: 1-3 (0-3 vs FBS)
- Last year’s score: 37-3 (40 total points)
- Minnesota road offense: 14 PPG
- Ohio State home offense: 40 PPG (24 vs FBS)
Line opened at 44, currently 44.5. With extra juice on the Under, I grabbed it before it drops.
San Jose State vs New Mexico
In addition to the three totals listed above, I’m also taking San Jose State tomorrow night, for five reasons (four of them are good reasons, one of them not so much).
- WF1 says New Mexico should be the favorite here.
WF1 record on road teams: 4-8 (67% Fade). - WF2 says New Mexico should be the favorite.
WF2 record on road teams: 22-23. - Match factor: When both WF1 and WF2 pick the same wrong favorite on a road team, record is 1-2.
- Momentum angle: I won using New Mexico last week and like to stick with teams I read well.
(Yes, a bit of a Benedict Arnold play since I’m betting against them this week, but loyalty-shmoyalty—I’m talking about making money!) - Action reason: I’m going to be watching this one, so I want action on it.
(Not a good reason, but hey, it counts.)
Current line: San Jose State -2.5
This one’s easily available with reduced juice (-107/-108), though some houses are at -115 and a few have moved to -3. I bought it this morning.
My Plays
- Clemson / North Carolina Under (wait to buy)
- Western Michigan / Massachusetts Under 46.5
- Minnesota / Ohio State Under 44.5
- San Jose State -2.5
(The fifth play is for tonight’s’ Colorado State vs San Diego State matchup, posted in the PredictEm forum.)
Recap
Last night’s results: 1-1
Season record: 7-8
Review: With a large lead, Vandy put their scrubs in at the end and I got backdoored by Utah State with just 58 seconds left. On the bright side, New Mexico scored late to cover my other play.
