No. 15 Florida St. Seminoles (6-1), +2.5, 42.5 O/U at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2)
Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, G.A., 3:30PM Eastern, Saturday
by Jay Horne of Predictem.com
The #15 ranked Seminoles head up to Atlanta to take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in a ACC showdown this weekend. Florida State is looking to stay on top of the ACC Atlantic standings as they are in a first place tie with Maryland. The Seminoles are 13-0 all-time against Georgia Tech under head coach Bobby Bowden. The most recent victory for the Yellow Jackets in this series comes all the way back in 1975 when Georgia Tech pitched a 30-0 shutout at home.
Georgia Tech comes into the game after a letdown loss last week to Virginia in where the Yellow Jackets were two-touchdown favorites to win. The Yellow Jackets had won 4 in a row prior to last week and look to the wins rolling again. The Yellow Jackets are an unorthodox offense that likes to run options and misdirection plays as their primary attack. Georgia Tech likes to establish the run game and then very seldom they will attempt some down field passing shots when they feel the defenses are not expecting it. This offense has caused problems for some really good defenses this year and the Yellow Jackets hope they can use it to pull off a victory over the #15 ranked Seminoles.
Florida State has had a solid season at a mark of 6-1 with their lone loss coming in a defensive game against Wake Forest where the Seminoles were defeated 12-3. Since that loss, the Noles have won 4 straight averaging 34 points per game. Florida State has been impressive defensively this year holding teams to a low 16 points per contest. Florida State is another run heavy offense, but they will pass the ball a lot more than the Georgia Tech offense. The Noles look to go 14-0 under Bobby Bowden against the Yellow Jackets this weekend and stay atop the ACC standings.
Florida States defense has been a premier defense in college football this year holding teams to 247 yards per game ranking them 3rd best in the nation. The State rush defense has been sound as well holding teams to 74 yards per game resulting in the No. 7 ranked rush defense in America. This rush defense will face its greatest challenge this year when they lineup against the Yellow Jackets. Offensively, Florida State has been efficient in moving the football. Florida St. has racked up 390 yards per game, while 193 yards per game have come from the rushing game. The main success the Seminoles have had is putting the ball in the end zone where they have averaged 36 points this season ranking them as a top 20 scoring offense.
Georgia Tech defense has been strong all year holding teams to 272 yards per game, resulting in the No. 12 ranked defenses in terms of total yards. Georgia Techs defense has been outstanding keeping opponents off the scoreboard only allowing 13 points per game. That No. 7 ranked scoring defense has been the main reason Georgia Tech has had so much success this season. The Yellow Jackets offense as mentioned before is a run heavy offense that averages 236 yards per game on the ground, 9th best in the nation. Georgia Tech strong rushing game along with good defense they have been able to play an old school style of football and it has paid off for them.
Most online betting shops have this line favoring the Yellow Jackets by 2.5 points this weekend. However, early betting numbers show the public is slightly favors the Seminoles ATS. The over/under total for the contest has been posted at 42.5. Moneyline numbers have Georgia Tech at -140 and Florida State at +120.
Seminoles are lead by sophomore QB Christian Ponder and senior tailback Antone Smith. Smith has carried the ball for 540 yards this season averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Smith is responsible for 11 TDs this year for Florida State and looks to add a few more to his resume. Ponder has been solid as well but has made a few mistakes. Ponder has thrown for 1119 yards this season, completing 53% of his passes, for 9 touchdowns and 6 picks. Smith and Ponder will have to be equally effective against the GT defense this Saturday to keep the Seminoles striving in the ACC.
Jonathan Dwyer has led the Georgia Tech rushing attack this season amassing 754 yards this season on the ground resulting in 6.0 yards per carry. Dwyer has been the work horse for the Yellow Jackets ground game this season and will get most of the carries this weekend. QB Josh Nesbitt is more of an athlete style quarterback that likes to run the ball. Nesbitt and Dwyer give opposing offenses a hard time since they both have great legs. The Yellow Jackets like to call a large amount of misdirection plays where Nesbitt will either hand the ball off or fake the handoff and keep it himself. Nesbitt has acquired nearly 400 yards this season on the ground from the QB position resulting in 6 touchdowns. Will this style of offense be able to confuse the Florida State defense? Only time will tell
Georgia Tech is 5-1 ATS this season and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Florida State. The under totals has went the Yellow Jackets way in 5 of 6 ball games this season due to the running style offense and strong defense. Florida State is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games and is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Seminoles have gone on the over side in 5 of their last 7 games.
Jays Pick - Sometimes history is hard to change and I think that will be the case again this weekend. Bobby Bowden stays perfect against Georgia Tech. ML Seminoles +120.