The Asterisk Spot
Anyone up for an update on the Asterisk Spot?
It’s been a consistent money maker for me over the last two years, across all sports.
Here’s a refresher on the records from last year:
College Football 9-20, a 69% Fade.
Pro Football 3-11, a 78% Fade.
That’s a combined 12-31, 72%.
Now here’s the update.
This season:
College 2-5, a 71% Fade.
Pro 2-1, a 37% Fade.
Overall, still profitable at 4-6, a 60% Fade.
BUT. . .
While the college numbers have been holding true to last year’s winning percentage, the NFL’s profitability is diminishing (though it’s a small data sample of just three games).
I have four games that qualify this weekend, two college, two pro.
The first spot is an early game on Saturday morning as undefeated Georgia Tech (6-0) heads to North Carolina to play Duke (4-2).
The Blue Devils are -2′.
I play these Asterisk Spots based on the history of my handicapping model, but I always take a look at some standard stats, too.
And as usual, in any game, I can find trends to favor either team.
Georgia Tech has won four straight against Duke. The coaching for the YJs has been consistent over those four games, with Brent May at the helm for all four, while Duke’s coach, Manny Diaz, is only responsible for the most recent loss.
Edge GT, but those were different teams, different players.
Duke is on a 3-0 winning streak, scoring 30+ in each game, and the Blue Devils have a much better SOS rating.
Edge Duke, but like I always say regarding SOS, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule. It doesn’t mean you wouldn’t have beaten better teams, too.
On paper, and going by gut feel, I like GT in this game, even more so if the line reaches a full FG as I expect it might. But as always, I’ll stick with my models, especially the Asterisk Spot.
Second game on the college slate is Mississippi State at Florida, with the Gators favored by -9 at home.
The Bulldogs are 4-2 SU and even better 5-1 ATS.
The Gators are just 2-4, SU and ATS.
Edge Mississippi State.
Or is it?
Massey ratings has Mississippi State’s SOS at #55.
The Gators? #1.
Florida has faced four Top Ten teams, three of them in the Top Five.
Miss St has faced one Top Ten team.
In their last game, they took on #9 Texas A&M.
And lost 31-9.
Here’s how I’m going to play this one.
Duke is a 12:00 p.m. EST game.
Florida doesn’t kick off until 4:30.
I’ll be happy to bank a unit off this play, so I’m doing an IF bet.
I’m buying the morning game.
If it hits, I might bank it, I might let it ride.
I’ll wait until I see the results from the morning game before I commit to betting on the later game. But IF Duke doesn’t cover in the morning, I’ll be all over Florida in the afternoon, trying to get back to 50% on the day, using a play that’s consistently hitting above 65%.
The NFL spots present a more difficult decision to make. The record is currently 2-1, which means I’m 1-2 Fading it.
There are two ways to look at this.
One way is to say that the play has leveled out, and the winning is behind me; stop using it.
The other way is to say, well, it’s just a three-game sample, too few to make a call either way; don’t abandon it yet.
Breaking it down into the subcategory of Hm/Rd doesn’t make the decision any easier, as all three games thus far were home teams just like the games with this week’s Fade candidates, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
Looking at the teams, I would bet ON doesn’t help the decision either, as it calls for plays on Carolina, who’s just 3-3, and Cleveland, who’s even worse at 1-5.
And I’d have to be laying points with them!
Cleveland hasn’t been a Favorite all year long, neither has Carolina.
And for good reason.
I already have one NFL play in my pocket (see my weekly NFL article for the play and analysis).
There’s just too much not to like about the NFL Asterisk Plays for me to put my money down.
The Fade has a losing record.
I’d have to bet on two teams that have lousy records.
And I’d have to lay points with them.
No buys for me on the NFL spots.
When to Buy Recommendation
This GT/Duke line is a strange one.
The Blue Devils opened at -2′.
That’s still the common number but I see it everywhere from -1′ at popular books such as the South Point, to Duke -3.
My take on it is that it’s going to go to -3, but I make the game at Duke as a small Fav, based on GT’s undefeated play this year as well as recent Head to Head history.
So maybe I’m wrong about it going to -3 and right about it being too high at -2′?
With plenty of -2′ available, I can wait to watch and see if I can get a better number.
If it starts to get pricey (extra juice added) on -2′, or more -3 start to show up, I’ll just grab it at minus two and a hook.
My buy(s?)
An “IF” bet on Duke -2′.
