Iowa at Iowa State: CyHawk Rivalry Gets Serious in Ames
Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Iowa State Cyclones (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, September 6th, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
TV: FOX
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Iowa +3 / Iowa State -3
Total: 41.5
Money Line: Iowa +135 / Iowa State -155 (Bet CFB at reduced odds!)
Sharp Money Take
This line screams trap game for the casual crowd riding Iowa State’s hot 2-0 start, but the smart money knows better. The Cyclones opened -3 and haven’t budged despite covering their first two games, which tells me the books aren’t worried about Iowa State money. Meanwhile, that total has dropped from 43 to 41.5 – and I’m here for it.
Look, Iowa State’s early numbers look decent on paper with 24.0 PPG and a clean 2-0 record, but dig deeper and you’ll find some ugly truths. They’re averaging just 4.0 yards per play (75th nationally) and converting a pathetic 21.43% on third downs. That’s not championship football.
The real kicker? Iowa’s won six straight at Jack Trice Stadium despite being road dogs most of the time. Kirk Ferentz’s boys are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs over the last four seasons, and they’ve made a living beating Iowa State in their own backyard.
Key Matchup Analysis
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Iowa State’s offense do enough to justify laying points against a defense that just held Albany to 7.0 points? I’m betting they can’t.
Rocco Becht’s in his third year running this offense, sure, but he’s leaning heavy on tight ends Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle who’ve combined for 19 targets through two games. That’s predictable football against a Hawks defense that’s built to stop exactly that kind of attack.
On the flip side, Mark Gronowski brings something Iowa hasn’t had in years – a dual-threat quarterback who can extend plays. The Cyclones’ pass rush has generated zero sacks on 60 opposing dropbacks this season. Zero! That’s not going to cut it against a mobile QB who can hurt you with his legs.
Iowa’s ground game already showed promise with Xavier Williams becoming the first freshman to rush for 100+ yards in his debut since Shonn Greene. Against an Iowa State front seven that’s allowing 2.8 yards per carry but giving up volume, this could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Situational Factors
Here’s where it gets interesting – Iowa State’s running the ball on nearly 59% of their plays, which plays right into Iowa’s hands. The Hawkeyes have built their program on stopping the run and controlling the clock, and now Iowa State wants to play their style of football?
The Cyclones are also dealing with a rebuilt receiving corps where no one has more than six targets through two games. That’s concerning when you’re facing an Iowa secondary that traditionally performs well in big spots.
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Historical context matters here too. Iowa State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games against Iowa, losing those games by an average of just 6.8 points. These games stay close, but Iowa finds ways to win them.
Statistical Edges
The numbers don’t lie, and they’re pointing toward a lower-scoring affair that favors the road dog. Four of the last five CyHawk games in Ames have stayed under the total, and both teams are showing early under tendencies this season.
Iowa State’s averaging 78 plays per game with their ground-heavy approach, but their offensive efficiency metrics are concerning. When you’re only generating 4.0 yards per play and struggling on third downs, you’re not built to blow anybody out – especially not a Kirk Ferentz defense.
The pace of this game should favor Iowa’s style. Both teams want to run the ball, control the clock, and play mistake-free football. That’s exactly the recipe for a game that stays under 41.5 points and comes down to the final possession.
The Verdict
I’m backing Iowa to continue their dominance in Ames while riding the under in what should be a typical CyHawk slugfest. The Hawkeyes have the historical edge, the better coaching, and a style that matches up well against what Iowa State wants to do.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-110) – 2 units
This total is too high for a game featuring two teams that want to grind it out on the ground. Iowa State’s offensive efficiency issues and Iowa’s defensive reputation create the perfect storm for a lower-scoring affair. With both teams likely getting 5-7 possessions each, I’m projecting a final score closer to 38-40 total points.
Value Play: Iowa +3 (-110) – 1 unit
Ferentz’s track record as a road underdog in this series is too strong to ignore. The Cyclones’ early-season metrics don’t justify laying points against a program that’s owned them at home. Take the points and trust the proven coach in a rivalry game.
Prop Consideration: Look at Iowa State under team total if it’s available around 22.5. Their offensive efficiency concerns and Iowa’s defensive capabilities make this an attractive secondary play.
