Jacksonville State at UCF
Thursday, August 28th
It’s my favorite time of year as a sports bettor – the start of college football season.
This year, I’m using two models to handicap WF’s (Wrong Favs) and three models for picking totals in my Battle with the Books.
And I’m also trying something new.
While going over my notes and charts from last year, I saw a play that was very effective in the early weeks of the season, when books have no current form to look at when making their numbers. It had a W rate of 67% (so again, I’ll point out the importance of keeping notes and a log book/database where you track plays, so you’re not betting blindly at the start of the next new season.)
Based on this system, I already bought 13 games that qualify (yes, 13; not sure I believe it myself, but there it is anyway.)
You can find the plays and more info in the PredictEm College Football Forum.
The season officially begins on Saturday August 23 but I have nothing that qualifies for that day.
My first plays will be on Thursday, August 28, when I have four spots that qualify.
Three of them are from the 13 plays I mentioned above, and can be found in the forum.
For the fourth play, I’m taking Jacksonville St/UCF Over.
This pick comes from my NP model.
I have 5 years of data on this system, and on average, it comes out at approximately 50% every year.
Last season it was profitable though, at 11-8, 57.8%. That’s just a hair under the 58% mark that I use to determine whether to make a bet or not, so I’m going to give the Overs in the NP spot a chance this season, right out of the gate, starting with the very first game that qualifies.
When handicapping, I don’t give much weight to year-to-year roster data in college, especially since the portal became a thing (it’s like a revolving door of players coming and going), but I’m hoping for results like last season’s opening game from these two.
On Thursday night, August 29th, 2024, Jacksonville St was at Hm against Coastal Carolina, and they combined for 82 points, just “slightly” higher than the posted total of 54.
This year, CC is the host and the number is 52/53.
Rich Rodriguez is gone, and new coach Charles Kelley takes over for Jacksonville St. His background is coaching defenses, and this is his first job as a HC, so there’s really no telling what kind of offense he’s going to run.
Tim Beck returns for his third year as HC for the Chanticleers, so we have some idea of what we can expect from him.
Last year, CC games averaged 60.2 PPG.
Ten of their 14 games saw 53 or more points scored, with 51 and 52 in two of the four that didn’t.
When to Buy Recommendation:
This game opened at 56, and you can get 52′ right now, including at one of our sponsors.
The game is still eight days away, so no harm in waiting a little bit longer.
As always, I’ll try to post the final number I buy in the forum.
GOOD LUCK to you on your Battle with the Books this college football season.
I hope that when the smoke clears and the battle is over, you’re Crazy Horse and not Custer.
Want to get in on a college football system that’s 132-79 (62%) over the past FIVE seasons?
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The NP Spot
