Kansas Jayhawks (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date and Time: Saturday, November 1, 4:00pm EST
Where: McLane Stadium - Waco, Texas
TV: Fox Sports One
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KAN +35/BAY -35
Over/Under Total: 61.5
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This Saturday in Waco, we have a Big 12 conference showdown, when the Kansas Jayhawks come to town to take on the Baylor Bears. Not many people expect this to be a close one since Baylor is one of the top 15 teams in the nation, while Kansas has just two wins through their first seven games in 2014. But, like the old sayings go, “you never know” and “thats why you play the games.”
Baylor is the heavy favorite in this contest, giving up 35 points to the Jayhawks. Baylor so far this season is 6-1 overall, and 4-2-1 against the spread. Kansas meanwhile, is awful. Coming in at 2-5 overall and 3-4 against the spread, not many people are giving them a chance to even keep this game close. Based on some numbers I looked up, already 68% of the money is riding on Baylor to cover this huge five touchdown spread. Not only is the spread large, but the over under is also set at 61 points which tells me lots of people expect lots of scoring.
The Baylor Bears come into this game ranked thirteenth in the nation with just one loss. For a few weeks, many people were taking Baylor to make the final four of college football, but a devastating loss to West Virginia has people now jumping off the Bears bandwagon. Baylor is solid offensively, led by quarterback, Bryce Petty, the Bears boast the 4th best passing game in America. Averaging nearly 350 yards a game in the air, Petty has not only made Baylor one of the top teams in college football, but he has made himself an outside dark horse for the Heisman Trophy. Along with the great passing game, Baylor also runs the ball pretty well. They are 22nd in the nation in rushing, averaging just about 230 yards per contest. This team is explosive, very explosive. On the defensive side of the ball however, Baylor could use a little work. They are ranked 42nd in scoring defense, but their defense really is not that good. Against their conference foes, they have given up a ton of points (with the exception of the Texas game). Baylor’s defense allowed TCU to score 58, West Virgina to score 41, and Iowa State nearly cracked the 30 mark with 28 points on the Bears. Not that the Kansas offense is scary, but if Baylor plans on covering a five touchdown spread, their defense is going to have to make a few plays and get some stops. The offense cannot keep carrying this team week in and week out.
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Great news for the Kansas Jayhawks fans….basketball season is here. That is pretty much all I can say. Kansas is bad. They come in at 2-5 overall, and winless in the Big 12. The real weakness for this Kansas team, other just not being very good at football, is the fact that their offense is horrendous. The Jawhawks are ranked 103rd in passing yards nationally, and 123rd in points scored. The real sad part of that is that they have not really played that difficult of a schedule. The Duke Blue Devils held them to just three points, while a mediocre at best Texas Longhorns team shut them out 23-0. Other than the offense being pretty terrible, the defense is not much to write home about either. Giving up 28 points a game, the Kansas defense is 77th in scoring. If they have any dreams of covering this spread against Baylor, they better get a few stops. Baylor will not let up, if they can score 70, they will score 70.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am never a fan of these games with huge point spreads. Never. I have this before, that a single field goal, missed PAT, or taking a knee can ruin these bets. We all know Baylor is going to win this game, it is a given, but by 35? I don’t know. I mentioned earlier than nearly 70% of the money was on Baylor’s side. I am going to take my chances on this game and fade that pick. I like Kansas to get a cheap score here and there, and I also like Baylor to just come out and play on cruise control and get the win with no injuries. Petty may not even see the field in the fourth quarter. Therefore I am predicting a 42-13 win for the Bears, and a backdoor cover for the Kansas Jayhawks. PICK THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS +35