Rich Crew’s Miami vs. Ohio State prediction dives into the “elite defense vs. efficient offense” pricing that has the Buckeyes favored by 9 in Arlington.
Market Read
When I look at this College Football Playoff matchup, the key factor is market respect for elite defense. Ohio State opened -9 and sits at -9 across most books, with totals ranging from 42 to 43. That’s a big spread paired with a modest total—classic “elite defense vs solid offense” pricing.
The market is betting Ohio State’s #1 defense can control this game. At 9 points, you’re asking the Buckeyes to win by double digits against a Miami team that’s allowed just 13.8 PPG this season. Books are pricing this like Ohio State 24, Miami 15. The total sitting at 42–43 suggests the market sees a grind-it-out affair.
Playoff environments historically suppress pace and possessions. Nine points is a meaningful number when both teams boast top-tier defenses and have shown they can turn games into slogs.
Game Dashboard
| Matchup | Miami Hurricanes vs Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|
| Date/Venue | December 31, 2025 – AT&T Stadium (Neutral Site) |
| Consensus Spread | Ohio State -9 (-110) |
| Consensus Total | 42.5 O/U (-110) |
| Moneyline | Miami +280 | Ohio State -350 |
Miami Hurricanes Profile
Miami’s numbers tell the story of a defense-first playoff team. Scoring 32.2 PPG while allowing just 13.8 creates a +18.4 differential built on efficiency rather than explosive output. The Hurricanes rank near the top nationally in completion rate (72.3%) but sit outside the top tier in yards per rush (4.1). That’s a classic playoff profile—limit mistakes, win with precision.
Miami’s passing efficiency metrics are strong, producing 8.4 yards per attempt with a 72.3% completion rate and a low interception rate of 2.74%. The run game averages 146.8 yards per contest on 35.7 carries, keeping defenses honest even with a modest per-carry average.
Defensively, Miami allows just 4.4 yards per play and 2.9 yards per rush, placing them firmly inside the elite defensive tier. The pass defense surrenders 6.0 yards per attempt, with opponents completing just 59.0% of throws. On third down, the Hurricanes allow conversions on just 32.5% of attempts. In the red zone, they’ve allowed touchdowns on 80.8% of opponent trips—an area that bears watching against an efficient Ohio State offense.
Miami’s turnover margin sits at +0.8 per game, ranking among the nation’s best. They force 1.8 takeaways per contest while giving the ball away just once per game. That brand of clean football is how underdogs stay competitive in playoff settings.
Ohio State Buckeyes Profile
Ohio State’s profile reflects championship-level balance. Scoring 32.0 PPG while allowing just 8.8 creates a +23.2 differential that leads the nation. The Buckeyes own the top completion rate in the country at 77.4%, paired with 9.0 yards per attempt and a low interception rate of 1.45%. This offense isn’t flashy—it’s relentlessly efficient.
The rushing attack averages 4.5 yards per carry on 34.3 attempts, producing 153.7 yards per game. Ohio State converts third downs at a 53.3% clip, one of the best rates nationally, allowing them to stay on schedule and control tempo. The offense generates 6.4 yards per play overall, leaning more methodical than explosive.
Defensively, this unit is suffocating. Allowing just 3.8 yards per play and 8.8 PPG, the Buckeyes force punts and limit possessions. They surrender only 2.8 yards per rush and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. On third down, opponents convert at just 29.5%. In the red zone, Ohio State has been equally strong, allowing scores on only 69.6% of opponent trips.
Ohio State’s turnover margin sits at +0.2 per game. They force takeaways at a modest rate but protect the football exceptionally well, coughing it up just 0.7 times per contest. Opponents are rarely gifted short fields.
Head-to-Head Comparison Matrix
| Category | Miami | Ohio State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Offense | 32.2 PPG | 32.0 PPG | Even |
| Scoring Defense | 13.8 PPG allowed | 8.8 PPG allowed | Ohio State |
| Yards Per Play | 6.0 YPP | 6.4 YPP | Ohio State |
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 4.4 YPP | 3.8 YPP | Ohio State |
| Rush Offense | 4.1 YPC, 146.8 YPG | 4.5 YPC, 153.7 YPG | Ohio State |
| Rush Defense | 2.9 YPC allowed | 2.8 YPC allowed | Even |
| Pass Offense | 72.3%, 8.4 YPA | 77.4%, 9.0 YPA | Ohio State |
| Pass Defense | 59.0%, 6.0 YPA allowed | 60.5%, 5.5 YPA allowed | Ohio State |
| Third Down Offense | 44.7% | 53.3% | Ohio State |
| Third Down Defense | 32.5% allowed | 29.5% allowed | Ohio State |
| Red Zone Offense | 91.8% scoring | 87.9% scoring | Miami |
| Red Zone Defense | 80.8% allowed | 69.6% allowed | Ohio State |
| Turnover Margin | +0.8 per game | +0.2 per game | Miami |
Matchup Breakdown
This game hinges on Miami’s ability to sustain drives against Ohio State’s elite defense. The Buckeyes allow just 3.8 yards per play, while Miami produces 6.0 yards per play. At some point, those efficiency gaps show up in time of possession and field position.
Miami’s path requires its rushing attack to control tempo and keep Ohio State’s offense off the field. The Hurricanes average 146.8 rushing yards per game, but Ohio State allows just 2.8 yards per carry. If Miami can’t establish the run, they’ll face repeated long-yardage situations against a defense that allows just 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
The drive sustainability numbers favor Ohio State. The Buckeyes convert 53.3% of third downs, while Miami allows conversions at a 32.5% rate. Miami converts 44.7% of third downs but now faces a defense allowing just 29.5%. Red zone execution often decides games priced this tightly.
Advanced Metrics & Projection
Ohio State holds the cleaner efficiency profile across the board. They generate more yards per play, allow fewer yards per play, convert third downs at a higher rate, and defend third downs more effectively. The Buckeyes’ completion rate versus Miami’s allowed rate suggests Ohio State can move the ball methodically without relying on explosive plays.
Miami’s advantages are narrow: strong red zone efficiency and a positive turnover margin. They force 1.8 takeaways per game, which can swing field position. However, Ohio State’s ball security limits those opportunities.
Both defenses limit explosives and force punts. In a playoff setting where possessions are at a premium, this projects as a low-scoring, field-position battle.
Rich’s Recommendation
Primary Play: Under 42.5 (playable to 43)
The numbers point toward the Under. Both defenses rank among the nation’s best in yards per play allowed, and both offenses protect the football. Ohio State allows just 8.8 PPG, while Miami allows 13.8. This total assumes sustained offensive efficiency that neither defense has permitted all season.
Ohio State’s third-down efficiency favors long, clock-burning drives. Miami’s offense will struggle to match possession for possession. That combination typically suppresses totals.
Secondary Angle: Miami +9 (reduced exposure)
Nine points remains significant when the underdog allows just 13.8 PPG and creates turnovers. Miami’s red zone efficiency gives them a chance to capitalize when opportunities arise.
The concern is sustaining drives. If Miami consistently faces third-and-long, Ohio State’s defense can separate late. Risk notes: turnovers and field position are the swing variables.
Bottom line: Two elite defenses in a playoff environment point toward a controlled, methodical game. Ohio State owns the efficiency edges, but Miami’s defense keeps this within the number more often than not.
