College Football Play Winning 77%
In 2025 – Penn State, Georgia or Mississippi?
From my column dated June 17, LY (Last Year):
“In recent play, the past two seasons, this spot is 8-3, 72%. It’s a simple play, the only qualifying factor is this: a week one favorite of -38 or >.
(Most of the handicapping systems I use have multiple factors required for a game to qualify as a pick. I rarely share those parameters, but I’m sharing this one so that just in case I get hit by a bus between now and next summer, you won’t need me to come up with week 1 plays for college football next year.)
Good news/bad news:
The bad news is the play went 1-1 LY, losing a little juice if you played them both.
The good news is I only played and recommended one of them, Oklahoma -39.
The Sooners won 51-3.
(The other good news, of course, is that I DIDN’T get hit by a bus and I’m here to share the play with you again this season.)
Before I get to this year’s spots, let’s look at the overall numbers for this play over the past five seasons.
But first, a couple of corrections.
After updating my database with stats from last year’s games and double checking the numbers I noticed the qualifying spread is -37, not -38 as misstated in the article.
And the record going into last season was 9-2, not 8-3.
Since 2020, this spot is now 16-10, 61%, all games.
But when both teams are FBS, it’s 10-3, 77%.
(I’m ALWAYS looking for subcategories to try and find something with a higher W%.)
With five full years’ worth of data, I’ve got some good stuff to work with here, so let’s look at this year’s teams that qualify.
There are three of them.
First up, the Lions and head coach James Franklin.
Penn State -45 (Nevada)
Since 2020, Penn State has only had six victories of 37 or more vs FBS teams
Jim’s just not a run-up-the-score kind of guy.
And not the kind of guy I want to lay -45 with.
Next up, Kirby and the Bulldogs.
Georgia -38 (Marshall)
Over the past five seasons, Georgia has had 14 wins of 37 or more.
That’s enough victories to make me dig a little deeper, aiming for a possible play on this one.
Let’s look at their opponent, Marshall, to see how many times they’ve suffered a blowout of 37 or more in the last 5 years.
And that number would be . . . ZERO.
Of course, they don’t play very many top 10 teams like Georgia. Since 2020, they’ve only faced two top 10 opponents, losing by 35 to Ohio State last year and beating Notre Dame SU back in 2022.
DO YOURSELF A FAVOR! STOP WASTING MONEY ON ODDS! STOP LAYING -110! START LAYING -105 TODAY AT BETANYTHING!
SEC teams in this spot are 8-1, but none of those eight wins came from Georgia, so I think I’ll pass on this one, too.
The third team is . . . Mississippi.
Mississippi -36′ (Georgia State)
Yes, the qualifier is 37 or more.
And yes, one of my major rules for handicapping is “Don’t Force Fit a Play! If it fits, it fits; if it doesn’t, it’s NOT A PLAY.”
But this one won’t stay at 36′, it’ll go higher.
And I’m buying it before it does.
I never fear laying the big wood with the Kiff.
He may not always cover the number, but I know he’s sure as hell going to try.
Lane does not know the meaning of the phrase, “Take a knee.”
Lane loves to run up the score.
Lane does not consider the other team’s feelings and has no problem embarrassing them and their head coach in a blowout.
And Lane LOVES to face patsies in week one to build his team’s confidence before entering into their SEC schedule.
He won his last two season openers by a combined score of 149-7.
Yes, those weren’t FBS teams (Furman and Mercer), but is this year’s opponent, Georgia State (3-9 LY), much better?
He may have a reputation for failing to win the big games, but in season openers against weak pushovers Kiffin is The Man. After being left out of the first ever 12 team playoffs in 2024 I expect him to come out angry and hungry in 2025, feasting on this year’s appetizer Georgia State before getting to the meat of his schedule against real competition.
The Rebels lost quarterback Jaxson Dart to the NFL draft, unfortunate for them but more so for him, as his new team is the NY Giants.
Austin Simmons is the new QB.
LY he completed 19 of 32 passes, two TD’s, 0 INT’s as Dart’s backup.
Yes, his playing time was limited, but his quarterback rating was 154, so it’s something to inspire hope, especially when looking back at his 10-play drive that ended with a touchdown in the Rebels’ win against Georgia, who at the time was the number three team in the country.
As noted above, SEC teams in this spot over the last five seasons are 8-1, so both Georgia and Mississippi are worth considering.
But when it comes to needing a blowout, I trust Kiffin more than Kirby.
And if you prefer betting on totals rather than sides, I’ve got this little nugget for you:
The Over in this spot (Week 1 Favs of 37 or higher) is 17-9, 65% since 2020.
Most books don’t have a number out yet on totals, but at 65% with over 25 games charted, I’ll be looking to play at least one or two of these if I get the right number.
Watch for an update and a play in either a future article or the PredictEm forum.
My play:
Mississippi – 36′
