I don’t make a lot of bets on a team’s Regular Season Wins Total because I don’t like laying my money out for the entire season.
I do like winning though, and I banked the only college team I used last season (USC Under 7′; they won 6) so I’ll try another one.
In 2024 the books set the number on Mississippi at 9′, with about 20 cents of extra juice on the Over.
They went 9-3 in the regular season, cashing tickets for anyone who took the Under.
This year the books set the Rebels’ Regular Season Wins total at 8′.
Let’s look at their 2025 opponents, week by week, marking each game as a Win, Loss, or Toss Up and see if they’re worth a play on the Under or Over.
Week One: Georgia State, at Home
Okay, maybe we don’t have to look at EVERY opponent.
This one is a no-brainer.
Current line: Miss -37
Win
Week Two: Kentucky, on the Road
LY (Last Year): A Rebel loss, 17-20.
Mississippi was 4-0 and ranked #6 in the country coming into this one. They were favored by 15 points and lost SU at Hm.
This loss, along with the loss to Florida (when Mississippi was also a Double Digit Fav) can be pointed to as the reason Coach Lane Kiffin and his team missed their shot at getting into the first ever 12 team playoff system.
This will be the fourth meeting between Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops and Kiffin.
Here are the scores:
2017 Miss 37-34
2020 Miss 42-41
2022 Miss 22-19
2024 Kentucky 20-17
Notice anything that sticks out?
Every game is close.
Four games with a point differential between the winner and the loser of just 10 points combined.
And it doesn’t help the Rebels’ cause that it’s a home game for Kentucky this year.
Toss up, lean Kentucky
Week Three: Arkansas, at Home
LY: A 63-31 Mississippi Massacre.
Arkansas 2025 is supposed to be improved over Arkansas 2024.
Maybe, but not by enough.
Win
Week Four: Tulane, at Home
LY: Did not play.
The Green Wave is out of their conference here, and to use a colloquialism, “out of their league” too.
In 2024, Tulane played two games against SEC opponents. They lost 34-19 and 33-8.
Mississippi and Tulane faced each other in 2023 and 2021.
Scores: Miss 61-21, Miss 37-20
‘Nuff said.
Win
Week Five: LSU, at Home
LY: A Rebel loss, as -4 Favs, at Hm, in OT 29-26.
Like the losses to Kentucky and Florida, this is the other game that can be pointed to as the reason Mississippi didn’t make the playoffs.
Every preseason ranking I read has LSU listed ahead of Mississippi going into this season.
The Tigers have consistency at quarterback with Garrett Nussmeier returning (9-4 as a starter LY) while the Rebels lost Jaxson Dart to the NFL and are going with an as yet untested Austin Simmons.
Toss Up, lean Mississippi
Week Six: Washington State, at Home
No history, these two have never met.
Preseason rankings have Mississippi anywhere from top 10 to top 15.
No one has Washington State in the top 50.
The Rebels will be Double Digit Favs at Hm in this one.
The Rebels are 27-3 SU at Hm with Kiffin as head coach.
Win
Week Seven: Georgia, on the Road
LY: There were just three games left on the Rebels’ schedule and their playoff chances were hanging in the balance when #3 Georgia came to town.
The Rebels were Hm Dogs at +2.
Mississippi took the lead in the first quarter and never looked back, getting a signature win, 28-10.
With only Florida and Mississippi State left on their schedule, games where Mississippi would be Double Digit Favorites, everyone had the Rebels penciled in for the playoffs.
But, to quote Robert Burns (and nicked by Steinbeck for his famous novella about George and Lennie) “The best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go awry.”
(ESPECIALLY if they go to Florida and come up flat after a big win over the Bulldogs.)
Loss
Week Eight: Oklahoma, on the Road
LY Oklahoma joined the SEC, and in their first year in the toughest conference in college football they managed to finish with a very average 6-6 record.
The Rebels welcomed them to the conference by sacking the Sooner’s quarterback nine times. Nine.
Final score: Miss 26-14.
The Rebels won SU but lost ATS as -19 Favorites, a line that was too high to begin with.
They won’t be DD Favs again this year, but the script should play out the same as last year – the Rebels will take the lead, forcing Oklahoma to abandon their running game in the second half.
Win
Week Nine: South Carolina, at Home
LY: Rebels won 27-3 on the Rd.
Last meeting before that one was in 2020, when Kiffin and Ole Miss beat the visiting Gamecocks 59-42.
South Carolina won its last six regular season games in 2024 to end up with a 9-3 record.
The losses were to #16 LSU by three points, #12 ‘Bama by two points, and Mississippi.
No shame there.
Coach Beamer still has quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who some say is the best in the conference, but he lost seven starters on defense.
Toss Up, lean Mississippi because they’re at home.
Week Ten: The Citadel, at Home
(See week one, Georgia State)
Win
Week Eleven: Florida, at Home
LY: Florida won 24-17.
The Gators are the other team that cost the Rebels a spot in the 2024 playoffs. Off the big win at home against Georgia, Mississippi went to Florida where they were Double Digit Favs of -13.
They came out flatter than Elliot Page, losing 24-17 and eliminating all but the faintest of hopes for making the playoffs.
This year the Rebels get the Gators at home. And they’ll be coming off a game against the Citadel, so no chance of coming up flat again.
Win
Week Twelve: Mississippi State, on the Road
LY: Mississippi W at Hm, 26-14
Kiffin is 4-1 in the Egg Bowl rivalry.
His only loss was in 2022 by a score of 24-22.
After this season he’ll be 5-1.
Win
Adding It Up
W’s 8
L’s 1
Toss Ups 3 (one lean Kentucky, two leans Mississippi)
In those 8 W’s there are five sure-things:
Geo St, Tulane, Washington State, Citadel, and Mississippi State.
The three games that might see an upset are Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Florida.
Two of those three are Hm games so the odds are they come away at 2-1 worst case.
That would put them at 7-1.
To stay Under 8′ I’d need them to lose to Georgia (who they beat last season) and lose two of the three of the games I have marked as toss-ups.
Chances are they lose at least one of the eight games I have marked as W’s this season.
If that’s correct then they would need to win two of the three games I have marked as toss-ups.
So the key to the Over or Under will be in the toss-up games. Do they have a better chance of winning two of three or losing two of three?
Schedule Advantage
Mississippi gets a big break on their schedule this year.
No ‘Bama, no Texas.
No Tennessee or Missouri.
And other than the Kentucky and Georgia games all their other tough contests – LSU, South Carolina, Florida – are at home in Oxford.
Final Analysis
The Over is risky on a team with an unproven quarterback, playing in the toughest division in college football.
Kiffin picked up backup QB help in the transfer portal but he didn’t go after a starting QB.
That tells me he believes in Simmons.
And that tells me all I need to know.
Kiffin is entering his sixth season as head coach at Mississippi.
After a rocky 5-5 start in his first year (with a team he inherited) he’s made his mark with seasons of 10-3, 8-5, 11-2, and 10-3 last year.
Three of those four teams have surpassed 8′ wins.
The fourth missed by a hook, landing on 8.
Their three losses last year were by a combined 13 points. In the two three-point losses, against Kentucky and LSU, the Rebels had the lead in the fourth quarter with 2-3 minutes left in the game but their failure to execute the four minute offense (run the ball and use up clock) resulted in untimely three and outs that kept their opponents in a position to steal the game, late.
Lack of balance between the passing game and the running game hurt the Rebels last year.
Kiffin knows this.
Kiffin will fix it.
I’m riding with Kif and the Rebels to go Over 8′.
This bet could very well be decided as early as week two.
If, IF Mississippi wins at Kentucky they’ll be in line for a 9 or 10 week season and I’ll be on a good path towards winning my bet.
If not, it’s going to be a rocky road trying to get to 9 W’s.
My Play
Ole Miss Over 8′ wins, -115
