North Texas enters the New Mexico Bowl without their head coach and star quarterback. Loot Levinson breaks down why the San Diego State defense is the key to finding value in this December 27 clash.Z
North Texas Mean Green (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Date/Time: Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 5:45PM EST
Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Point Spread: UNT -3/SDSU +3 (Bovada)
Money Line: UNT -160, SDSU +135
Over/Under Total: 54
The North Texas Mean Green take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the New Mexico Bowl on December 27. It has been a good season for both teams. The Mean Green finished the season with a hefty 11 wins, last seen on the field losing only their second game of the season to eventual CFP participant Tulane on December 5 by a 34-21 score. San Diego State, meanwhile, lost its third game of the season on November 28, a 23-17 overtime loss to New Mexico, dropping them to 9-3. Let’s break it down!
Getting a Lay of the Land
San Diego State faltered somewhat at the end of the season, with two losses in their last four, including a 32-point loss to Hawaii in November, in addition to the loss to the Lobos. One interesting tidbit, however, is the unusual result that the Aztecs now get a bowl game on the very field they last played. And while they lost, that would have to be considered an advantage. The Mean Green, meanwhile, had carried a 6-game win-streak into the conference title game against Tulane, and try as they did, could not overcome a poor start to that game. Another interesting side feature to this game is how well both teams have performed in a betting sense, going a combined 19-6 against the spread.
A victim of their own success, the Mean Green has to now adjust in the wake of their head coach Eric Morris leaving to take the Oklahoma State job following his big 11-win year at North Texas. QB Drew Mestemaker announced he’s in the transfer portal. One would think he’d follow Morris to Stillwater, but apparently, he’s still at meetings, as some have figured Morris told those who wish to follow him to remain on the Mean Green through bowl season. Still, as game time nears, one would be advised to check which players will not be in action on both sidelines, as things can change and information can be slow to emerge.
Can North Texas Offense Crack the Aztecs’ D?”
Just as North Texas’ success led to some of their pieces being more desirable for suitors, the Aztecs’ defense has some of the same issues. Their defensive coordinator flew the coup. Word is leading pass-rusher Trey White and corner Chris Johnson might leave for the NFL. And if playmaking linebacker Owen Chambliss departs for greener pastures, the defense will have taken perhaps too many losses. Still, this group allowed under 13 points per game on average and showed a lot of stoutness and game-changing ability beyond just White, Johnson, and Chambliss, so maybe they can replicate what they’ve been this season to a certain degree.
It won’t be easy for the Aztecs against a balanced offense like what North Texas brings, averaging just under 45 points per game this season. At 4129 yards, Mestermaker worked with a varied and talented receiving crew, led by the excellent Wyatt Young. But they can mix it up, and Caleb Hawkins can be a monster on the ground and will be useful against the Aztecs’ defense who, if they have a weakness, may be their run-defense. We’ll see if he’s ready to go after getting hurt against Tulane and with a potential transfer looming after a 26-touchdown season. All in all, the North Texas offense and San Diego State defense would want to be full-power taking on each other, and it looks like that isn’t in the cards for either unit. Will losing pieces on offense cramp North Texas’ high-flying status, or will the elite SDSU defense no longer be so with such compelling missing pieces?
Neutral fields and mismatched effort levels create value. Trust our college football bowl predictions to find it.
Can the Aztecs’ Offense Do Damage?
It was the San Diego State defense that got them here, not their offense, which will get no one’s blood pumping. We saw starting QB Jayden Denegal largely struggling, especially coming down the stretch of the season. Leading receiver Jordan Napier won’t likely return from injury in time for this, though WR Donovan Brown has been good in his stead. Running back Lucky Sutton can be a difference-maker with his 1237 yards on the ground, but unlike North Texas, the Aztecs don’t have the aerial game to take attention off their lead back.
Still, it’s a respectful run-game with a big O-line going against a North Texas defense that does not excel against opposing ground-attacks, giving up 207 yards a game on the ground. We see them mostly holding it together, as they did aid in getting the Mean Green to a great record this season. But what we saw against Tulane could manifest here on a smaller scale, as SDSU utilizes physicality and controls the tempo, as the North Texas “D” has trouble getting stops. Still, it’s a Mean Green “D” that should be at close to full-strength. They could at least make SDSU one-dimensional, as they take away Denegal’s options at quarterback.
Take the Points
It’s not a sexy pick. But what San Diego State lacks in eye-catching offense, they make up for with a certain underlying competency that could serve them well in this game. While the Aztecs have personnel issues of their own, which are customary this time of year, North Texas arrives in this spot as not quite the same outfit they were this whole season. Not that North Texas is in a position as a program to be flippant about bowl games, but it just seems they’re the team that has more turned the page already on this season. The Aztecs, used to this trip and this field, should hang in there and at least cover the spread. I’m taking the Aztecs.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the San Diego Aztecs plus 3 points.
