Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2024 14-1 SU, 12-4 ATS) vs. Miami Hurricanes (2024 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, August 31st, 7:30 PM
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
TV: ABC
Point Spread: ND -2.5 / MIA +2.5
Over/Under Total: 50
The storied rivalry between Notre Dame and Miami returns Labor Day weekend for a primetime showdown at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday night. Though the glory days of their legendary games of the late 80s and early 90s between them are over and the Catholics vs Convicts moniker now more refers to the teams’ fans than the players themselves, this top ten matchup should provide an entertaining end to a day of barbeques and the weekend roster of games.
DEPARTING FROM MIAMI
The Hurricanes offense ranked 1st in scoring and yards per game a season ago but nearly all of the playmakers that were responsible for those stats are no longer with the team, most notably quarterback and 1st pick in the NFL draft Cam Ward, 1000 yard running back Damien Martinez and their top five players in receptions. To replace Ward, Miami will turn to Carson Beck. The Georgia transfer took a step back in his second season with the Bulldogs, including doubling his interceptions from six to twelve, which was tied for the lead for the worst in the SEC conference. Beck suffered an elbow injury late last year that required season-ending surgery and caused him to miss the entirety of the ‘Canes spring practice, which would have been especially helpful considering the valuable reps he would have gained acclimating himself to his new surroundings.
FLETCH RETURNS
The skill position player back with the most returning experience within the Miami system is running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who ran for nine touchdowns and over 600 yards a season ago. As expected for a Hurricanes team, there is talent throughout the backfield roster, including second-stringer Jordan Lyle and newcomers Charmar Brown and Girard Pringle, but Fletcher Jr. is undoubtedly the lead back. He is also the only returning player on the roster to have double-digit receptions for the Hurricanes in 2024, which leaves the door open for any of the team’s wide receivers to make a name for themselves in the upcoming year.
TARGET OVERHAUL
Who will step amongst Carson Beck’s options in the passing game remains to be seen, with CJ Daniels, Jo-Jo Trader, Malchi Toney, and Ray Ray Joseph listed as the top options amongst the receivers, and tight end Elijah Lofton expected to step into the starting role at tight end. Daniels transfers in from LSU, while the other four are homegrown within the program. They are all in for a big test to open the season against a Notre Dame defensive backfield that ranks as one of the best in the country and is highlighted by cornerbacks Christian Grey and Leonard Moore, along with safety Adon Shuler.
HURRICHANGE
The 2001 Miami Hurricanes team is likely the best ever in college football history, but since the Larry Coker days at the beginning of the century, the program has been a shell of what is once was, highlighted by the fact that they haven’t finished a season in the top ten in 22 years and are 1-12 in their last thirteen bowl games. Slim Charles once said in the great HBO show The Wire “The thing about the old days is, they the old days”, and until Miami figures out a way to consistently play at high level for an entire year (they have ended their last three seasons with a 3-10 record combined in the final weeks), that quote will continue to describe the Hurricanes as the ‘once was’ it truly is within the college football landscape.
MOMENTUM BUILDING
Notre Dame, on the other hand, is coming off their best season since their last National Championship run in 1988, with the Fighting Irish getting through Indiana, Georgie, and Penn State in the BCS Playoffs before eventually falling to Ohio State in the title game. With head coach Marcus Freeman back and a 2025 schedule that should see them favored in all twelve games, there is no reason to believe that the Fighting Irish can’t continue that run in 2025. Especially with the human highlight hurdler in Jeremiyah Love back at running back to pace the offense.
LOTS TO LOVE
Jeremiyah Love enters his final season in college football as one of the top running back prospects for next year’s draft, and it’s easy to see why. Love is coming off a year in which he ran for over 1100 yards, averaged nearly seven per carry, and scored a total of 19 touchdowns, which included a streak of 13 games in a row in which he got into the endzone at least once. He is far from alone though in an experienced and well-rounded Notre Dame backfield that ranks as one of the best in country that also includes Jadarian Price and receiving threat Aneyas Williams, both of which along with Love will undoubtedly benefit from running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NCAA in a tough week one test against a Miami defensive front that includes Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor and transfer David Blay.
CARR AND DRIVER
Love may be the star of Notre Dame’s offense, but it’ll be redshirt freshman C.J. Carr tasked with leading the Irish on the field. After relying on back-to-back transfer quarterbacks in Sam Hartman and Riley Leonard, Notre Dame now turns to one of its most highly touted recruits to take over under center. Carr should benefit from the attention running back Jadarian Price and the ground game will draw from the Miami defense, easing some of the pressure in what will be his first career start — and in a hostile road environment. If Carr struggles, the Irish have a solid fallback option in Kenny Minchey, whose strong spring performance made Marcus Freeman’s decision at quarterback a tough one.
TAKE IT TO THE HOUSE
Along with the three options out of the backfield, Carr will have plenty of weapons to choose from amongst the Notre Dame offensive arsenal, most notably returnee receivers Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison, transfers Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin), and tight end Eli Raridon. Greathouse saved his best for last a season ago, posting over 100 yards receiving and getting into the endzone at least once in both their playoff semifinal win against Penn State and championship loss to Ohio State and will hope to build on that momentum as Carr’s likely first look, while Eli Raridon is expected to continue the Irish recent run of success at the tight end position that has seen one of them get picked in six of the last eight NFL drafts.
THE FINAL DECISION
It can be difficult at times trying to figure out who to side with when two highly ranked teams play early on, but I didn’t find that to be the case for this week. Yes, Miami is at home and has a more experienced quarterback in Carson Beck over CJ Carr, but both of those arguments can easily be countered as the Canes are also just 13-10 at home under Mario Cristobal (eleven of those wins came as a favorite of 16 points or more) and Beck is playing on a brand-new team with a lot of new faces while also missing all of the valuable spring practice time as well.
What can’t be debated is how different the results have been of late between how the two teams have done against top-tier competition. On one side, Notre Dame has gone 9-1 in their last ten games against ranked teams and posted a 19-1 record versus teams rated 10th through 25th. On the other hand, Miami is 13-26 in their last 39 against ranked teams and 1-11 in their previous twelve versus those in the top ten. Most important of all, the Fighting Irish are simply more talented as a position group they rank higher than the Hurricanes in running backs, wide receivers, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers and defensive backs, and also have a lot more in terms of players with team experience, as Miami is expected to start nine players from the transfer portal and Notre Dame just two.
I expect both teams to rely on their running games early to give the quarterbacks a chance to get used to their new surroundings which could lead to a lower scoring game, but more than anything I strongly believe Notre Dame is that much better than Miami both on the field and the on the sidelines, and expect the Fighting Irish to start another march toward the BCS Playoffs with a win and cover on Sunday.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -2.5
