Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday, November 29th 10:30 PM
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: ND -32.5 / STAN +32.5
Over/Under Total: 51
In what will be the last regular-season college football game involving a ranked team, Notre Dame heads west to California to battle host Stanford in a late Saturday night showdown. The Fighting Irish have gotten the better of the Cardinal historically with a 24-14 lead in the series, which includes back-to-back victories over the last two years by an average of over 35 points per game.
4 FOR FRANK
The Cardinal come into the week riding high after just upsetting longtime rival California, taking back the Stanford Axe and ending a four-game losing streak against the Bears. The victory was the fourth of the season for first-year head coach Frank Reich, which may not seem like much, but is the most victories they’ve had in a year since the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The former Bills quarterback Reich, along with previous Indianapolis Colts signal caller Andrew Luck, who was hired at the end of last season as the program’s football GM, have at least gotten things pointed in the right direction as Stanford gets a bit closer to becoming relevant again in the college football landscape.
NO FUN RUN
One of the biggest reasons the Cardinal were able to come away with a win against Cal was their defense scoring two touchdowns to help build an early lead and swing momentum in their favor. Running back Micah Ford had one of the best games of his college career, going for 150 yards and getting into the endzone for the first time since September. Unfortunately, that sort of success has not been a consistent one for the team, as the Cardinal rushing offense ranks 133rd out of 136 teams in college football, to go along with further disappointing marks, including 124th in total yards per game and 123rd in scoring. Ford and backup Cole Tabb have both been decent enough with an average of over four yards per carry, but as a team they have just eight rushing scores on the season, and this week are faced with their toughest matchup yet against a Notre Dame run defense that hasn’t allowed a running back to go over 100 yards in a regular season game since 2023.
AIR ELIJAH
Leading the Cardinal offense on the field is quarterback Elijah Brown, who took over as the starter after replacing Ben Gulbranson in the second half of their loss to Pittsburgh. His primary targets are wideout CJ Williams, who leads the team in all receiving categories, including touchdown receptions with six, and tight end Sam Roush, who is unfortunately the only other player on the team to have caught multiple scores through the air.
The redshirt freshman Elijah has thrown for one touchdown in each of the last three games, but has cleared 200 yards just once and does not have a reliable running game to help offset the pressure he is sure to face this weekend. Notre Dame’s defense is tied for the NCAA lead with twenty interceptions on the season, and with a predictable offense lacking weapons across the field from them, led by an inexperienced quarterback in Brown, the odds are definitely in their favor to add to that total on Saturday night.
TALKING ABOUT PLAYOFFS
Since starting their season off with back-to-back losses, Notre Dame has rattled off nine straight double-digit wins and finds itself just one away from a probable BCS Playoff berth. There is a scenario, though, where they could still be left out, but multiple dominoes would all need to fall in the same direction, namely, BYU winning the Big 12, Alabama winning the SEC, and Ohio State not winning the Big 10.
Denouncers of the team ignore the fact that the two losses were against teams ranked in the top ten, were by a combined four points, and that the one-point defeat to Texas A&M was widely regarded as questionable, thanks to an egregious holding call that was missed on the game-deciding play. Rankings also take into consideration how a team is playing going into the playoffs, and with their recent run of destruction against nine straight opponents with high-quality play on both sides of the ball, it’s very easy to see why the Irish belong in the playoffs as long as they win on Saturday against Stanford.
SOME HEISMAN LOVE
The focal point of the Notre Dame offense is undoubtedly Jeremiyah Love, who continues to show week in and week out why he is considered one of the best running backs ever to play for the Irish. Love has cemented himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation, with his preseason odds to win the coveted award having shrunk from +4000 to the current +400 and now only trailing favorite Fernando Mendoza of Indiana amongst the contenders.
Betting in-game props on Love has gotten so absurd that his odds to score a touchdown last week were -1000, but it’s easy to see why when you consider he has gotten into the endzone in 23 of his last 24 games and has just as many touchdowns (20) this year as the entire Stanford offense combined. That is not a typo.
The problem with trying to stop Love, or his NFL-bound teammate Jadarian Price as well, is that it only takes one missed tackle or assignment for them to be able to take advantage for a long-distance touchdown, and as long as either of them is on the field, the Cardinal will be forced to respect his ability on every play, which should then open things up that much more for Irish quarterback CJ Carr and the Irish passing game.
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CRUISE CONTROL
Stanford’s defense ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game, but that stat is a tad misleading, as the Cardinal’s porous passing defense (133rd) is so bad that teams have just constantly attacked them through the air. With the ability to use Love and Price to keep the Stanford defense honest, CJ Carr should have a field day against the overmatched Cardinal cornerbacks and safeties. Another issue the defense faces is the arsenal of targets available for Notre Dame in the passing game, as receivers Malachi Fields, Jordan Faison, and Will Pauling, along with tight Eli Raridon and anyone coming out of the backfield, are all talented options that each deserve their own share of attention. Stanford does not have the offense to trade points with Notre Dame, so their ability to slow down the Irish offense and drain the clock as much as possible will be their only path toward an upset victory. Keeping the Irish off the scoreboard has definitely worked out well for their opponents in the past, as Notre Dame is 91-6 in their last 97 games when scoring over 21 points and just 2-16 in their last 18 when scoring under 21.
THE PICK AND WHY
After an enormous win against their biggest rival, a letdown this week by Stanford could be expected, but despite their current tally of just four wins, they still have the added motivation with an outside chance at making a bowl if they can finish 5-7. Any team that finishes as such has a chance to make a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams available otherwise. The Cardinal find themselves fifth in the tiebreaker standings behind other current 4-7 teams North Carolina, West Virginia, Auburn and Ball State, but do have the hope of moving since all four ahead of them are underdogs this weekend as well. Stanford has shown the ability to claim victory when least expected in recent history, having posted at least one win as a double-digit underdog in each of the past seven seasons, which includes a 2022 takedown of Notre Dame in South Bend when the Cardinal were getting 16.5 points.
All that being said, I just don’t see how they can come close to slowing down Jeremiyah Love, CJ Carr, and the Notre Dame offense enough to keep things within striking distance on the scoreboard. The Irish are 15-6-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite, and I expect that streak of success to continue on Saturday against Stanford.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -32.5
