Matchup 1: Ohio Bobcats vs West Virginia Mountaineers
Matchup 2: Sam Houston Bearkats vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
College Football Free Picks
The Asterisk Spot was 9-20 in college football last season, good for a 69% Fade. I don’t know if there were any spots that qualified last week because I forgot to ‘cap it, but I remembered this week and I have two games that fit the required parameters.
What’s the Asterisk Spot?
Answer A: I have two mathematical models – WF1 and WF2 – I use to determine where the books have made the Wrong team the Fav. When I have a game that qualifies for a WF2 spot but WF1 says the correct team is the Fav, AND the point differential between the two is a TD or greater, I have an asterisk spot.)
Answer B: The most successful handicapping model I’ve come up with (except the NP play of course) one that’s been profitable across all sports – NFL, college football, NBA, WNBA.
A reminder about handicapping – what works one year may not work the next season. But at 9-20, 69% in college football I’m going to keep playing this spot until the pendulum starts to swing back the other way.
Game One: Ohio vs West Virginia
Ohio plays host to West Virginia in a Mac vs Big 12 contest. WF2 says Ohio should be the Fav.
WF1 says West Virginia is the correct Fav and they should win by more than three times the current spread of -3′.
In their first game this season the Bobcats lost SU to Rutgers but covered ATS, losing by just three points as Dogs of 14′.
Not a bad showing for a MAC team versus a supposedly powerhouse Big 10.
The Mountaineers won their opening game 45-3 but it’s nothing to get excited about as the victory came against Division II Robert Morris.
Game Two: Sam Houston vs Hawaii
Sam Houston travels to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors. WF1 says Sam Houston should be favored by double digits, WF1 says Hawaii will win by more than double the current spread of -6′.
Sam Houston is already 0-2 this season with both losses coming by 17 points. That’s stat makes this game look winnable at the current number of -6′.
But . . .
Hawaii is averaging a measly 14.5 PPG.
They beat Stanford by a field goal in their season opener, then got kicked in the coconuts by Arizona 40-6.
Betting Strategy
I’m going to do the “IF” bet on these two spots.
If the early game wins I’ll bank it and not play the late game.
If the early game loses I’ll play the late game based on the math that says a 69% play is more likely to go 1-1 then 0-2.
I doubt the line on either of these two Favs drops any lower.
West Virginia is more likely to go up to -4 than lose the hook.
Hawaii has gone from -8′ to -6′.
My Play(s)
W Virg -3′
Hawaii (IF bet, wait to buy until the West Virginia results are in.)
