Sports betting is risky.
It’s common knowledge that over 95% of bettors lose.
But if I’m going into another Battle with the Books again this season, then this is the hill I choose to live or die on – the NP Under spot.
Here are some numbers I shared with you last college football season on the record for my best prediction model, betting the Under in a spot I call NP.
- 2020: 28-4, 87%
- 2021: 34-21, 63%
- 2022: 34-32, 51%
- 2023: 21-17, 55%
- 2024: 15-5, 75% (YTD, Year To Date)
- Combined total: 132-79, 62%
That’s a very healthy sample size of over 200 games.
It’s in its fifth year, without a losing record in any one of them (lost a little juice in 2022).
It finished last season at 23-13, 63%, all plays shared publicly, either in my articles or the forum here at PredictEm. (And yes, all but 4 of those 32 picks in 2020 were shared in public. The record is real.)
The year I started tracking it, I needed something to call it, so I just used “NP,” which stood for New Play, because it was new at the time. As mentioned in my column last year, it’s not new anymore, but I still call it NP, not for New Play but in honor of my mom.
I lost her last year.
NP are her initials, Nancy Palermo.
(Miss you.)
Going into 2025, I have five years of data on the play, and it has a record of 140-87, 61%.
It has been profitable in four of those five years.
The only year it failed to make a profit was when it finished at 34-32. With juice factored in, it lost a little over one unit that season.
A data sample that’s hitting better than 60% with over 220 games charted is simply magnificent.
I’ll be sharing the plays again this season, right here at PredictEm.
And I plan on betting every one of them.
Here are the three games that qualify for week one:
Fla Atl/Maryland
Nev/Penn St
Utah/UCLA
The question is – when to buy.
Based on live movement from the opening numbers, I’m going to wait to buy the Fla Atl/Maryland game and grab the other two now.
Note – I run the numbers again on game day.
Due to line movements, some plays will be added, some will be dropped.
Updates will be given every Saturday morning in the forum.
For the opening week of the college season, I’m on:
Nev/Penn St Un 57′
Fla Atl/Maryland Un (wait to buy)
Utah/UCLA Un 51
