RBD gives up his handicapping shortcut and shares a system-based Over on Maryland at Ohio State.
Maryland at Ohio State
A Prediction on the Total
I do a lot of handicapping work.
Time consuming, number crunching, rooting around like a truffle pig searching for a play that will give me a winning percentage.
Correction – give US a winning percentage.
Every once in a while I get in the mood to have readers share some of the workload.
Like today.
To paraphrase the great Bob Ryan (Martin Landau), “What if I told you I had a play that was 3-1 in 2023, 5-3 in 2024, and 8-1 last season for a combined three year total of 16-5 (76%!) is that something you might be interested in?”
I give out plays from my models/systems but rarely give out the qualifying parameters that make it a play.
But I did give out the parameters last year for the 76% play noted above.
They can be found in my article dated 12/9/25, on the Tulane/Miss game.
Look it up.
Don’t try to remember it for this year’s bowls, write it down. And refer to it when making your plays for this year’s games.
For impatient bettors who don’t want to wait until December for a play I offer the following:
Maryland/Ohio State Over.
I noted in last week’s article that I found a new model to use for college football, to replace the NP system which no longer gives me any games.
It was 3-9 on Unders, good for a 75% Fade.
Only one game qualified last week and I used it as one of my picks. The system said the Toledo/Ball State would stay Under 51′.
Final score, 39-24.
That’s a combined 63 points for a play that sailed over by double digits.
The record moves to 3-10 now, a 77% Fade.
One game qualifies this week.
The model says Maryland/Ohio state stays Under 56, which puts me on the Over.
Let’s check the standard stats.
Both are Over teams thus far this season.
Maryland is 4-1 Ov/Un.
Ohio state is 3-2.
Four of Maryland’s five games have gone Over the number on this week’s game.
Three of Ohio State’s five have gone Over this week’s number.
The Buckeyes opened as 5 TD Favs over the Terrapins but the line has dropped a point or two. I’m not a fan of Maryland’s head coach Mike Locksley. His play calling and game management leaves me scratching my head sometimes, so it’s important to look at how he gets his team motivated when they’re huge underdogs (like this week when they’re given a less than 2% chance of winning.)
Over the past three seasons there have been three games where Maryland was Big Dogs of +21 or more. They scored 10, 7, and 18 points in those three contests, for an average of 11 PPG.
Pretty lousy.
If that form holds it means I’ll need 45 or more from the Buckeyes, who average 42 PPG.
Maryland’s defense only surrenders 22 PPG overall, but that number goes up to 31 PPG when they’re on the Rd like this week.
And there’s this – Ohio State is the 7th ranked offense in college, PPG. Maryland has faced two other top 10 offenses this season, Nebraska and UCLA. They gave up 48 to the Cornhuskers and 54 to the Bruins, for an average of 51.
So can I get 45 out of Ohio State at Hm? Yes, I can.
The game opened at 55′ and is currently at 56/56′, with the 56 still available at a couple shops here in Vegas and at our sponsors.
My play:
Mary/Ohio State Ov 56
Record: 9-10
